Ukrainian invasion part 13

[Alexandra2001]

Seems to be required.

@BringBackCoffeeCreams it's the same in Finland "no need to worry but also this is what you need to take to the bunker, oh and if you live in a detached house you'll just have to stay home, there's no bunkers for you (well, my town anyway)". This thread eases the anxiety a lot.

Re peace talks.

Saudi Arabia 81 executions recently, apparently they were people with links to ISIS and Al Qaeda.

Gosh good to hear insights from Sweden and Finland

I don’t even know if we have bunkers in U.K., do we? Anyone know

No we don't. But (and I may be ignorant here) is the Finland/Sweden messaging due to proximity? Eg if a plant was hit there could be a radiation issue?

@EsmaCannonball

Tentatively, the Nazanin news is a good sign in all this. Putin was counting on the relationship between Iran and the West irretrievably collapsing but it may have just given Iran a bit of leverage to force us into a bit of distasteful realpolitik.

With all the talk about Sweden and Finland, isn't it more likely that Putin will foment violence or perhaps even invade the Baltic states? Serbia is very pro-Russian and there have been pro-Russian demos (replete with Z regalia) in the last few days. I thought it was telling that the PMs who visited Kyiv (Polish, Czech, Slovenian) were all from countries that were most recently within the Russian sphere of influence. (I mean, there's also Hungary but, you know, Orban.)

Unlikely to do anything to the baltics as they're in NATO so that would be firing the first shot in WWIII for sure, but Serbia? Maybe, though Moldova would surely be the natural next step if he could afford any next steps, that is.

There are, or were, some military ones. I remember being shown around one. Cramped as all hell! Think a lot were decommissioned though.

The nuclear fuel in warheads will need continual (and fucking expensive) replenishment if we aren't to have a set of impractical paperweights in a few years time.

The physics behind a nuclear blast are incredibly finely calculated and need a very narrow window of radioactivity. Isotopes with short half lifes are quite a problem.

@MagicFox

No we don't. But (and I may be ignorant here) is the Finland/Sweden messaging due to proximity? Eg if a plant was hit there could be a radiation issue?

My local paper in its article about the lack of bunkers said that fallout from a nuclear plant accident in Ukraine would not be a problem in Finland, so likely not in Sweden either. I mean, not a problem requiring sheltering, the radiation would have an impact like it did with chernobyl (there's still remnants from that in the soil here) but not in any immediately scary way, just a carefully monitor food kind of way.

There is a well-signposted Secret Nuclear Bunker at Kelvedon Hatch in Essex 😁😁😁

I googled that and the name makes me laugh

secretnuclearbunker.com/

My neighbour has an old concrete air raid shelter in his garden still. Don’t think there’s room for more than him and dc and not much use really

[quote eglantine7]I agree that Putin needs to save face for his disastrous barbaric war, so negotiating out of this is imperative. What people of Russia are able to do thereafter remains to be seen.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60756993.amp[/quote]
This is really interesting and have to say I have a general sense that John Simpson knows his shit. Putting aside the absolute horror of this situation, as someone who works in the sphere of international negotiations the outcome of these if successful will be fascinating to study.

@Igotjelly

There is talk of an ‘Austria style’ compromise. Anyone able to explain what that means?

I'm not 100% sure but I think Austria's neutrality means it can't join a military alliance or host military equipment, weapons from other countries on its soil. However, it maintains its own armed forces. I think the upshot is that it would leave Ukraine in a position where it could maintain what it needs to defend itself, but it couldn't enter into NATO-style security agreements with other countries or allow, for example, America to place warheads on its soil (not that that was in the offing.) Although I don't think anyone quite knows what Russia means by 'de-militarisation'

Didn't Indiana Jones just go in a fridge-freezer? I'm currently looking at mine and thinking I'll never fit.

@DGRossetti

The nuclear fuel in warheads will need continual (and fucking expensive) replenishment if we aren't to have a set of impractical paperweights in a few years time.

The physics behind a nuclear blast are incredibly finely calculated and need a very narrow window of radioactivity. Isotopes with short half lifes are quite a problem.

I did idly wonder whether the sanctions would make it economically impossible for Russia to maintain a nuclear arsenal of the size it currently possesses. It must cost an absolute fortune.

@MagicFox

No we don't. But (and I may be ignorant here) is the Finland/Sweden messaging due to proximity? Eg if a plant was hit there could be a radiation issue?

I think that here in Sweden it's more that we're always more prepared for any eventuality. The advice about war supplies is just reiterating what we've all expected to do anyway. We're a nation of boy scouts, it's our civic duty to 'be prepared'. Be that for war, for snow, or for hitting a moose with your volvo.

Everyone household in Sweden has a copy of this booklet 'If crisis or war comes' which was sent out years ago. It has everything you need to know to prepare in it, inlcuding supplies checklist and a guide to the various alarm signals and what they mean. We now being reminded about what we should in theory already know and have prepared.

[quote eglantine7]I agree that Putin needs to save face for his disastrous barbaric war, so negotiating out of this is imperative. What people of Russia are able to do thereafter remains to be seen.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60756993.amp[/quote]
Good article thanks

I did idly wonder whether the sanctions would make it economically impossible for Russia to maintain a nuclear arsenal of the size it currently possesses. It must cost an absolute fortune.

We have no idea how well maintained Russias arsenal ever was, really.

If it received the same level of loving care that the regular army and equipment have, then it may well be useless. However I wouldn't want to be the one to find out ...

Here's an online version of the book in English if anyone is interestd.

rib.msb.se/filer/pdf/28706.pdf

@DGRossetti

I did idly wonder whether the sanctions would make it economically impossible for Russia to maintain a nuclear arsenal of the size it currently possesses. It must cost an absolute fortune.

We have no idea how well maintained Russias arsenal ever was, really.

If it received the same level of loving care that the regular army and equipment have, then it may well be useless. However I wouldn't want to be the one to find out ...

I've heard scepticism from a few people I know who used to work in the navy as to whether all of Russia's arsenal is actually useable. God knows if there's any truth in that as it's total hearsay. But if people have been embezzling funds left right and centre, I suppose that could apply to warhead maintenance, especially if the people involved thought that they'd never be used in any event.

I'm sure we'll never find out, but the thought of one exploding in a lacklustre manner and vaporising Putin is immensely satisfying.

“BringBackCoffeeCreams

Here's an online version of the book in English if anyone is interestd.”

rib.msb.se/filer/pdf/28706.pdf

Thank you. I haven’t read it all but that is very useful @BringBackCoffeeCreams

I've heard scepticism from a few people I know who used to work in the navy as to whether all of Russia's arsenal is actually useable. God knows if there's any truth in that as it's total hearsay. But if people have been embezzling funds left right and centre, I suppose that could apply to warhead maintenance, especially if the people involved thought that they'd never be used in any event.

It's **ing had to make a practical nuclear weapon. Just ask Iran. Quite aside from the mind-bending level of accuracy and grasp of timing involved, these things have to work while flying through the air at supersonic speeds.

Or in other words the number of things that have to go right at the right time is astronomical.

Ukraine has rejected 'neutral' status according to Mail understandably wanting security guarantees.

Hmmm once again Zelenskyy is asking the following 'Zelensky’s latest requests – a no-fly zone and Nato-supplied fighter jets – make such a prospect more likely.'

Asked US public to lobby for this to happen.

Also feeling more negative about peace talks today on bbc it has reported 'An advisor to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that a Russian proposal that Ukraine adopts an Austrian style neutrality is unacceptable to the country.
Mykhailo Podoliak, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, told local media any peace deal must be on Ukrainian terms that protect its sovereignty.
"We understand the attempt of our partners to remain proactive in the negotiation process," Podoliak said. "Hence the words about the" Swedish" or "Austrian model" of neutrality. But Ukraine is now in a state of direct war with Russia."
"Therefore, the model can only be "Ukrainian" and only with legally verified security guarantees. And no other models or options."
Earlier this morning, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia was open to a peace deal that saw a neutral Ukraine maintain its own army and navy, along the lines of Austria or Sweden.'