Ukrainian invasion part 13

[Alexandra2001]

Seems to be required.

@holliem91

I don't understand why nuclear weapons exist. I understand they're a deterrent but if using strategic nukes means MAD then what's the point? No one wins.

I guess for Putins sake they have worked wonders for him though as he really scared people when he set them to high alert and it's allowed him to get on with what he set out to do.

I keep trying to rationalise myself and thinking surely it won't resort to that for the obvious reasons but I too have moments of utter panic. I think if it wasn't for my 2 year old DD I wouldn't be as worried about this whole situation.

I asked DH if all out nuclear war would mean the end of humanity and in his opinion as a nuclear scientist, life would go on. He thinks all out nuclear war would take us back to the pre-industrial era and things would be tough for a few generations, but we'd get back to where we are now much quicker than we did first time round. (As the industrial knowledge will still exist, we'll just have to relearn how to use it.)

@holliem91

I don't understand why nuclear weapons exist. I understand they're a deterrent but if using strategic nukes means MAD then what's the point? No one wins.

I guess for Putins sake they have worked wonders for him though as he really scared people when he set them to high alert and it's allowed him to get on with what he set out to do.

I keep trying to rationalise myself and thinking surely it won't resort to that for the obvious reasons but I too have moments of utter panic. I think if it wasn't for my 2 year old DD I wouldn't be as worried about this whole situation.

They're horrible things. I think the problem is that their invention opened a sort of Pandora's box where many countries would accept that the world would be much better if they didn't exist, but can't stop maintaining and updating their own arsenals because other countries have them. As far as I know, America developed nuclear weapons first because they were concerned that advances in German nuclear technology would allow Germany to develop a bomb first.

The problem is that, even if everyone disarmed, the knowledge for how to make atomic bombs is out there. So disarm, and you know that there's a significant risk that someone starts developing weapons again and there's nothing to deter them from using them. Gradual disarmament has massively reduced the number of nuclear weapons worldwide, but I can't see a situation in the near future where stockpiles continue to reduce.

It's a real pickle because any country having nuclear weapons means that they're potentially at the disposal of irresponsible leaders. Trump is a good example of someone who should never have had a nuclear sabre to rattle, yet America needs its arsenal to deter other nuclear powers from taking it on.

The BBC coverage seems generally more in direction of peace talks and likely upcoming compromises today - with one article even suggesting Zelensky's whole repeated pleas for a no fly zone was clever posturing to allow him to renounce NATO as useless anyway. Just propaganda or is the end nigh? And would such an end just be kicking the can down the road or not...

@Natsku

Cheers for the link, so they seem to be saying no for now but some parties want to start the discussion? Are those parties a significant percentage of Parliament?

Yes, they're the main opposition parties. Moderaterna are the Swedish tories. But Swedish politics is the flip of the UK's. The left are the ones who are always in power. Although this is changing with the rise of SverigeDemocraterna who are nazis, but the other right wing parties are getting a bit too cosy with them. (Even UK tories joined up with them in the EU parliament)

Yes US and others thought Germany would get there first. I’ve been meaning to read a book on the Manhattan Project as what I’ve listened to sounds interesting

Once they exist absolutely no one will trust their adversary to be truthful re disarmament

Would we trust Putin if he said ok? No because his words have not meant much so far

@Natsku the conversation is in broken English so it's difficult to drill down but there just seems to be this consensus that senior Russian military are brutes that won't back down. They have said Putin has let the troops go too far, as though he is something of a puppet. It doesn't make sense to me that one man alone could cause all this devastation and I now wonder whether wishing for an internal coup is too simplistic.

It is men on the ground in Romania and Ukraine saying this.

@HelpMeHiveMind

The BBC coverage seems generally more in direction of peace talks and likely upcoming compromises today - with one article even suggesting Zelensky's whole repeated pleas for a no fly zone was clever posturing to allow him to renounce NATO as useless anyway. Just propaganda or is the end nigh? And would such an end just be kicking the can down the road or not...

I just don't know what to make of it. Putin's been generally negative about the peace talks but I think there has been a 'softening' in Russia's rhetoric.

I'm not sure what would happen in the event that a Russian withdrawal was agreed now. There's a lot of speculation about what Putin's long-term game plan is, but who knows if it's the same as the pre-invasion plan. Russia's material reality has changed now. Even if sanctions were lifted, he's allowed the use of copyrighted materials etc. I can't picture companies rushing to restart their operations in Russia after he did that, and I wonder how much the economic hit will affect his ability to launch any further offensives. But I think I might be being rather optimistic.

suggesting Zelensky's whole repeated pleas for a no fly zone was clever posturing

That would make sense supporting the fact that "the problem is less the use of airpower by the Russians and more their use of rockets and artillery, neither of which would be prevented by a NFZ"

ilaglobalnetwork.org/ukrainian-resistance/

@HelpMeHiveMind

The BBC coverage seems generally more in direction of peace talks and likely upcoming compromises today - with one article even suggesting Zelensky's whole repeated pleas for a no fly zone was clever posturing to allow him to renounce NATO as useless anyway. Just propaganda or is the end nigh? And would such an end just be kicking the can down the road or not...

Been lurking up till now as I'm clueless, but I was cheered by that article. Although I am slightly concerned about the possible impact when speculation like this (Zelensky is cleverly manipulating Putin, the only way for Putin to save face is to escalate, if he backs down now he'll look pathetic etc etc) filters back to Putin. I get that Putin is mostly concerned with how he's perceived by his own people, but are articles like that wise? (Then again, not advocating for censorship... argh, I don't know)

I asked DH if all out nuclear war would mean the end of humanity and in his opinion as a nuclear scientist, life would go on. He thinks all out nuclear war would take us back to the pre-industrial era and things would be tough for a few generations, but we'd get back to where we are now much quicker than we did first time round. (As the industrial knowledge will still exist, we'll just have to relearn how to use it

my DH and I had a similar conversation but he wasn't as optimistic - it took us a long time to get back to where the Romans were, after the Roman empire collapsed.

It’s nice to think that some of the human race might go on but tbh I’m not finding it that comforting for the rest of us ;

I think parts of the southern hemisphere would survive though with climactic change and the consequences of increased radiation. I do wonder what it must feel like being in some southern hemisphere countries watching the north dick around with threats of nuclear war, and with climate change, and feel powerless to do anything...

I think pp is right about Pandoras box. I would love to see global nuclear disarmament but there is just no way to force compliance. And even if you did, then a few years down the line a rogue nation could make them again. We invented them and now we have to live with the threatbwe created for ourselves.

In On the Beach the air cycles brought that radiation down anyway.

Re what southern countries feel my family are there and it’s further away but they are as powerless as you and I are.

They feel the same as I do. Watching Putin wage a war no one wants.

They don’t buy into northern hemisphere to blame

How likely is the nuclear scenario? Sorry, I know that nobody really knows, but more talk of it on here this morning is making me quite anxious, whereas the BBC is more hopeful re. peace talks, like PPs have said. Sorry, I know it’s all hypothetical.

That’s good news what the BBC are saying. I hope peace talks come to something.

@OMGTTC I think there’s more talk on here this morning about it because I made a post around feeling fearful all the time. Sorry if I worried you x

Has the meeting begun/finished in Kyiv with the Polish, Slovenia and Czech leaders? Do we have any updates on that?

@AgnesWestern please don’t be sorry! It’s a really concerning time. FWIW, I feel very similar to you about it all, if that’s any sort of comfort, knowing that we’re worrying together. I feel really selfish for worrying when our concerns here are hypothetical and Ukrainians are having to face real conflict.

@OMGTTC

How likely is the nuclear scenario? Sorry, I know that nobody really knows, but more talk of it on here this morning is making me quite anxious, whereas the BBC is more hopeful re. peace talks, like PPs have said. Sorry, I know it’s all hypothetical.

I'd say it's highly unlikely. It's something that I'm generally interested in (from a disarmament point of view) and as far as I know, there are no signals from Russia that it's seriously intending a nuclear response. Despite its big scary announcement about upping the readiness level, intelligence suggests there's been no big change in its nuclear posture. I also haven't really heard any more sabre rattling, which surprised me because I thought Putin would try and scare everyone with nuclear rhetoric than he actually has.

I think discussions like these understandably turn to nuclear weapons because Russia is a major nuclear power, but it's human nature to mull over the worst case scenarios, even when they're unlikely. Discussion in the press generates clicks- I've seen some really silly articles published that are designed to play on people's anxieties, which are irresponsible really. No one can say really, but my gut says that the risk is higher than usual but still very, very low.

*more than he actually has

@OMGTTC

How likely is the nuclear scenario? Sorry, I know that nobody really knows, but more talk of it on here this morning is making me quite anxious, whereas the BBC is more hopeful re. peace talks, like PPs have said. Sorry, I know it’s all hypothetical.

I think generally the feeling is whilst the risk is elevated compared to what is was before the invasion its still a pretty unlikely scenario.

Having lived in Sweden I agree with them not wanting to join NATO. Why would they? They have an exemplary armed forces, and their warfare technology is advanced. They also have the advantage that the majority of their weaponry is designed and manufactured in Sweden using Swedish resources. To be in NATO means "sharing that" .

They are well equipped to defend themselves if they ever needed to, they don't want to be drawn in to other conflicts which being a member of NATO could happen.

Finland also has a similar military with similar manofacturing capabilities, but it does purchase a significant amount from NATO allies unlike Sweden. Finland also borders Russia significantly unlike Sweden so they are in a more vulnerable position to land invasion.

My father was in the Navy on his way to the Far East (as it was then called) when the atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima. My mother had recently given birth to my older brother and she heard the news with great relief as it signalled the end of the war.
The threat of nuclear war was ever present through my childhood, teens and early adulthood, and those of anyone else my age. The proxy wars of the Cold War were ongoing. Travelling in Europe, I became friends with many Americans who were either traumatised by service in Vietnam or who could not return home because they had evaded the draft for one reason or another (most refused to fight in what they understood to be a pointless and immoral conflict).
I had hoped that the world would be such a better place by now, but rational thought tells me that these things will keep happening, as they have for centuries and millennia.

Nevil Shute’s 1957 novel On the Beach shows how prevalent the idea of a nuclear world war was at that time.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(novel)

[quote Hillsmakeyoustrong]@Natsku the conversation is in broken English so it's difficult to drill down but there just seems to be this consensus that senior Russian military are brutes that won't back down. They have said Putin has let the troops go too far, as though he is something of a puppet. It doesn't make sense to me that one man alone could cause all this devastation and I now wonder whether wishing for an internal coup is too simplistic.

It is men on the ground in Romania and Ukraine saying this. [/quote]
Russian culture tends to "the leader has a god given authority and so is infallible, if anything goes wrong it's the fault of someone else". That may be what's going on here