Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

BBC breakfast just cut short their link to James Waterhouse reporting from the centre of Kyiv as the sound of bombing/artillery suddenly became much louder as though it was closer and he needed to get to relative safety.

Another thing I thought of with regards to housing the refugees was the issue of vetting. Is there going to be any?
I worry about the vulnerability of these people and someone housing them could take advantage, thinking modern slavery or rape.
I may be overthinking this, but just a thought that occurred to me.

Thanks for the new thread @MagicFox

I posted this towards the end of the last thread so I’m just going to repost again in case it helps:

Posting this link again which might help anyone with anxiety about the current situation. Try to look at the way you are looking at things, are they helpful or unhelpful thoughts: www.getselfhelp.co.uk/unhelpful.htm

When I had CBT a year or so ago for anxiety, my therapist taught me the STOPP technique which others might find helpful: www.getselfhelp.co.uk/docs/STOPP.pdf

Thanks all for the threads.

For those worrying about conscription in the uk- ds2 is applying to rejoin and it's taken a year so far and he still has another couple of steps to go.
They don't seem in any rush so I can't see them conscripting any time soon. I hope this helps to bring some peace of mind in this regard.

@cakeorwine

The East Enders writer's will be working nuclear Armageddon into the plot lines, Sharon and Phil digging bunkers and then offer the helpline after the show.

The BBC’s coverage has been very good IMO. (All headlines should be read with some thought as it’s easy to read into them things they don’t say or mean.). In fact most coverage I’ve seen from most mainstream media sources has been well-informed, reasonably balanced and fact checked. This is somewhat unusual, so noticeable.
I think people are uncomfortable talking about the war as it’s genuinely hard to understand the historical, political and geographic background or in any way predict outcomes both locally and globally. It was easier to talk about Covid because it affected all of us and impacted greatly on our work and home lives. Many people’s long term health and wellbeing were affected (and are still being affected) and many knew people who died from it, so it changed our lives on a personal level which the war has not done so far.

I just went on Twitter (I deleted it previously but re downloaded to send a message to a train company)
I saw ww3 was trending, had a quick look and can’t believe how many Americans are saying they disagree with Biden and that they think we should intervene, even if it starts ww3.

I'm so reassured that this thread has been recognised as an outlet for us all, somewhere to chat and moot ideas .
It's just awful when it is ones only outlet but some posters are so sneery and " superior".
We are not doing a PhD in Putin's politics and we all have different interests, education, perspectives.

Re conscription, in the run up to the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq was supposed to have the 4th largest army in the world with close on 1 million soldiers experienced from an 8 year intensive ground combat war with Iran. Similar to Russia today in Ukraine, Iraq had amassed a considerable force on the border with Kuwait and had at its disposal over 7,500 tanks and artillery and over 50 army divisions. Following the invasion in August 1990, it took 6 months for coalition forces to assemble an army to drive Iraq out of Kuwait. Airliners were flown out of Heathrow to Saudi Arabia with tens of thousands of body bags. While there was much talk of conscription in the US and UK, it never happened. Some reservists were called up, mainly in the specialist roles such as medics. Today and as we enter a new cold war, the emphasis is on equipment, artificial intelligence and cyber warfare. Troops will always be needed at the front line of engagement on the ground, but those numbers are unlikely to increase in real terms with the emphasis remaining on professional soldiers. The UK will recruit more, but I do not believe conscription will be introduced.

Agnes,

It doesn't surprise me at all re USA.

Firstly they are very removed from the action should it take place. I'm not sure if nuke's could reach them?

Secondly they probably feel that Putin would be quickly over run by NATO and that we could stop this slaughter.

The second one I swing in and out of.
My reservation are; we don't know who would join him and once that war is set in motion we unleash the principle of unintended consequence.

However I don't feel mad would occur because the people around Putin have families.

just heard delia smith on radio 4
talking about the shameful visa business

it is an embarrassment to the uk

@Papertyger Nukes can go anywhere on the planet.

But you re right, the USA isn't going to get involved and i strongly suspect, wouldn't if Latvia was attacked in the future.

For those that doubt this... If Putin started mass extermination, in the millions, NATO would stand by and do nothing plus the argument that intervening means WW3, also applies equally if he attacked a NATO country i.e "why come to Latvias aid if it means Nukes landing in New York"

Bidens latest sanction is a ban on Vodka and Diamonds, you really couldn't make up this level of weakness if you tried.

Papertyger - how do you think MAD works if the nukes can’t reach the US?

Luckily the nutjobs who are calling for WW3 aren’t in charge and Biden is!

@AgnesWestern have you thought about some anti anxiety medication. I see you seem to really worry about every aspect. I was the same and have been prescribed sertraline and it has really helped keep me grounded. I was the same as you at the start litterally wandering if it would wake up in the morning in the case of a nuclear attack.

Was interesting what the Belarus leader said yesterday about people will all forget this has happened in a few months. While I don't think that's exactly true, I have started to think as many analysts have said that this may drag on for months or even years meaning eventually this conflict will stop becoming 24 hour news coverage. It wouldn't even surprise me to see some of the companies that have suspended business in Russia to start creeping back in quietly. McDonald's for example are still paying their staffs wages. Can't imagine they will do that for long not being open.

@DriedBeanKibble

Eventually I took Sertraline and that was the best thing I ever did.

Slightly off topic but in what ways did Sertraline improve anxiety for you and how long did it take @Hillsmakeyoustrong?

Hi. It reduced my day time anxiety and improved my ability to sleep (I had anxiety based insomnia). I did have headaches and nausea for the first week or two which is very common but it settled quickly and I noticed an improvement within the month. But I never had to increase from the lowest dose of 50mg. Other friends and family who have taken it would agree that it's helped them enormously. I used to get very anxious around health and was always at the GP. I now haven't been in years (touches wood).

Happy to be PM d on sertraline so we don't derail thread.

tensions also in north korea
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-60702463

Just to update on my last post, turns out the suddenly much louder noise closer to the centre of Kyiv was a group of workmen repairing the road surface and not Russian artillery.

@Neverendingdust

I'm not so sure we are over COVID.
I received an ominous text to say don't go to a and e this weekend as our trust is overwhelmed.
I looked at COVID figures, last week down 7 % this week jump up of 40%.
Now I know that takes time to work through the system and into hospital but I'm not sure we are out of the woods yet.

@Papertyger

Agnes,

It doesn't surprise me at all re USA.

Firstly they are very removed from the action should it take place. I'm not sure if nuke's could reach them?

Secondly they probably feel that Putin would be quickly over run by NATO and that we could stop this slaughter.

The second one I swing in and out of.
My reservation are; we don't know who would join him and once that war is set in motion we unleash the principle of unintended consequence.

However I don't feel mad would occur because the people around Putin have families.

Re Twitter, it is overrun with nutters and trolls and hardly represents a scientific opinion poll on anything.

I'm not sure if nuke's could reach them?

lmgtfy.app/?q=icbm

Secondly they probably feel that Putin would be quickly over run by NATO and that we could stop this slaughter.

Are you actually unaware of the fact that the US has 100k troops stationed in Europe?

Children are going missing and cases of human trafficking are being reported by aid groups and volunteers along Ukraine’s borders amid the chaos of the refugee crisis triggered by the Russian invasion... "This unfortunately is not a hypothetical case"

www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/mar/12/children-going-missing-amid-chaos-at-ukraine-border-report-aid-groups-refugees

This it the first time I've wanted to say it, but fuck Putin. He is a gangster.

Sorry;

I'm talking from the perspective that MAD : won't happen because even if Putin looses it, people around him are not ideologists even just thugs with mistresses and family.

So casting that MAD scenario aside the next level of nuclear use is localised nuke's which is what many posters have said is more likely than mad.
I agree with this. If anything nuclear occurs I believe it will derive from the nuclear plant's (maybe even accidently) or localised nuke's.
Neither of which I don't think will reach the USA.

That was what I meant; apologies.

Miss USA, I didn't mean it unkindly when I Said people in the USA aren't afraid of poison cloud ☁️ it's just it does change perspectives when it's closer to you.

I have also stated I am extremely grateful to have the back up of the USA at the moment, holding the line around the world against mad, unelected dictators!

Re the 100k troops I don't know what you mean!

That 100k isn't enough to over run Putin or that..if they did they would be affected by localised nuclear issues?

Ie not so removed?