Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

@bluetongue

I know nothing about missiles so be kind. With the fighting heading closer to the border, especially with Poland what happens if a missile ‘goes astray’ (can that happen) and lands on NATO territory? I guess how would you even know it’s a mistake?

It just feels like it wouldn’t take much with NATO forces at the borders for this to spill over to Russia vs NATO.

Yes they can go astray and the answer is what mpsw said.

I’d only add that the nature of any response might depend whether the errant missile lands in a farmer field or just happens to score a direct hit something that might be considered a target such as a military installation or popular action centre.

@MarshaBradyo

Just going back to energy situation hearing about Saudi Arabia and 81 executions

Such a hard decision and the world is difficult atm

"Those executed had been sentenced over plotting attacks in the kingdom -- including killing "a large number" of civilians and members of the security forces, the SPA statement read.

"They also include convictions for targeting government personnel and vital economic sites, the killing of law enforcement officers and maiming their bodies, and planting land mines to target police vehicles," the SPA said.

"The convictions include crimes of kidnapping, torture, rape, smuggling arms and bombs into the kingdom," it added."

If that's accurate then personally I wouldn't lose a second of sleep over it.

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-pregnant-woman-pictured-being-evacuated-from-bombed-mariupol-hospital-dies-with-baby-12565815

Agree - landing in a field and hurting no living creature is less likely to provoke a response than something which strikes buildings, civilians or military (roughly in that order of importance). But even if it looks wholly accidental, it's a salami slice over a very important line.

At present, there are no neutral observers in that area, so whatever is being fired is coming from a long way off. So tthe missiles would be the sort that would be seen by those watching what is in the skies over the conflict.

If it's not that sort of mission, because ground forces are within reach, then it gets more complicated, because of the chance it's a mistake by disoriented Ukrainian forces (because if Russians are fighting near the border, so are the Ukranians) and much if their kit is exactly the same.

And of course either side could fire deliberately (to bring in NATO) either as attack or as false flag (these scenarios are getting more improbable, but I mention them for completeness). That is an awful prospect. And an accidental overshoot that hits something in Poland could have the same effect, but to me seems even worse because no-one intended it to happen.

Not that intent or otherwise makes much difference, but if someone had intended it, then it would have happened one day as a result of that intent. If accident, it might never have happened, and that's why to me it seems even worse.

Very cool heads are needed at the top of NATO. And many look nes of plans depending on the type of incident - including whether any appropriate defensive response can be devised that won't inevitably escalate

@gasoline

Anyone have any view that their may be positive progress soon with the peace talks? They're talking again today aren't they?

Even the fact that they are talking is good.

@gasoline

Anyone have any view that their may be positive progress soon with the peace talks? They're talking again today aren't they?

Imagine that will depend on what happens with China.

China's the pivotpoint now, I suspect.

@mpsw “ Yes, an accidental overshoot is a very worrying possibility.”

I spoke to dh’s dad about this because I was worried too (he’s ex military so naturally is taking a great interest and following the conflict closely) he said a while back that a hotline has been installed between the US (for NATO) and Russia with the idea that they can immediately notify them if a rogue missile is a mistake to reduce the chance of escalation due to miscalculation. Apparently this is a common thing to do in most wars as tech does sometimes go wrong.

@Iwasfeelingepic Oh Christ. Poor woman. Poor baby. And all the tens of thousands of others.

Goddamn it, it's not just Putin. Those Russian boys are lost but they are killing and destroying. It's their decision and they're making it and ordinary, defenseless people are suffering and will suffer more. And the trauma will go down the generations. Fuck you Putin and fuck you, the soldiers who choose not to hold back.

@bluetongue

I know nothing about missiles so be kind. With the fighting heading closer to the border, especially with Poland what happens if a missile ‘goes astray’ (can that happen) and lands on NATO territory? I guess how would you even know it’s a mistake?

It just feels like it wouldn’t take much with NATO forces at the borders for this to spill over to Russia vs NATO.

I will tell you what happens if missile goes astray and lands on NATO teritory. It happens nothing, that is (if you're second rate NATO country, probably wouldn't be the samo for 1st rate NATO country like UK).

Three days ago a military drone carrying an explosive fell on capital of Croatia, Zagreb. It came from Ukraine, but for now we do not know was it Russia or Ukraine who sent him to my home.

We were lucky, because it crashed in a park, so only a man passing on a bicycle was hurt. If it crashed 50 metres from that spot, it would have landed on university campus where 4,500 students were sleeping at that time. Hundreds would have been killed.

Before it came to Croatia it spent 50 minutes on NATO teritory. NATO knew it was heading to Zagreb, but did nothing to inform our governement.

We were lucky hundreds of people didn't die.

I never thought NATO would defend small country like Croatia in case of the attack, but now I'm 100 per cent sure.

Drone was only 7 minutes on croatian teritory, so not even the best army in the world wozld have been able to shoot him in that time. NATO should have informed Croatia, but they did not nothing, although they saw the drone heading in our direction.

If this had happened in UK or France it would have been a world class scandal. But NATO doesn't care if thousands of bombs fell on the small country like mine.

I, in the meantime, sleep with my children at night holding them tight and think when will the next one come and will if crash to my building.

Sorry, I just had to vent, I'm so angry I could scream.

He was not in a position really to have been in any way causative of the banking crisis of 1998, especially as that was so much driven by US sub-prime lending. Or are you suggesting that US banking decisions during the 90s were actually a Russian sectret operation?

@meditrina , wasn't US sub prime lending the cause of the 2008 world banking crisis, if so they have short memories those banking peeps. As for Putin, 1998 was when Yeltsin gave him the top job at the FSS, that's what I mean't by the start of his ascent to power

Kavalkada .. words are pretty useless but I'm sorry.

China owes $2.4 Trillion in foreign debt, more than USA and higher as a % of GDP.
China has no leverage over the USA on this.

But they could try and reduce import tariffs.

On @RedToothBrush, clashed with her a few times on the Brexit threads, more on interpretation rather than direction but always found posts thought provoking etc - i did think the shouty BAD was a little out of character but this is a highly stressful situation that is constantly changing.

@Alexandra2001

US foreign debt $30 trillion
102% of GDP

China foreign debt $2 and a bit trillion
29% of GDP

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

I don’t think China can get involved didnt they make some kind of historic pledge to Ukraine

China doesn’t give a damn about ‘historic pledges’. They broke their promises about Hong Kong pretty quickly.

kavalkada that is terrible. Thank god it landed where it did. I don't understand why NATO didn't alert your country.

The problem with Saudi Arabia labelling the people they have executed as murderers, rapists and terrorists is that Putin is currently labelling Ukrainians as Nazis, extremists and terrorists. The executed men may have been those things but in a totalitarian police state you can't trust that information.

@Andante57

I don’t think China can get involved didnt they make some kind of historic pledge to Ukraine

China doesn’t give a damn about ‘historic pledges’. They broke their promises about Hong Kong pretty quickly.

Apparently Hong Kong police have accusing a UK citizen in the UK of breaking Hong Kong law

www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/uk-based-rights-group-says-hong-kong-police-accused-it-violating-security-law-2022-03-14/

[quote Iwasfeelingepic]
news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-pregnant-woman-pictured-being-evacuated-from-bombed-mariupol-hospital-dies-with-baby-12565815[/quote]
This is off because I read a few days ago that she had a baby girl the next day and there was a photo of her holding the baby and also the dad holding the baby...

Hi guys. NOT virtue signalling, genuinely need advice.

I've been booking airbnbs in Ukraine and having little chats with the hosts. Nothing more than the usual. Last night a verified, longstanding host in odesa asked me to help him get meds to him as the red cross is apparently very slow. The list of items is legit and the pharmacy warehouse in Romania seems legit, I even spoke to the Dr this morning. My concern is it's a lot of money and the collection and delivery is tenuous for obvious reasons. Any words of advice?

This is off because I read a few days ago that she had a baby girl the next day and there was a photo of her holding the baby and also the dad holding the baby...

That was a different woman. The woman who is still alive is the one they pictured coming down the stairs in fleecy pyjamas, not the one being stretchered away. They are different women.

@ClaudineClare

kavalkada that is terrible. Thank god it landed where it did. I don't understand why NATO didn't alert your country.

There’s no doubt at all that the incident with the drone was alarming but of course we really don’t know the whole story.

ZippyZap, that was a different woman I think. The woman who was pictured walking down the stairs (who Russia said was an actor) survived and her baby was born safely.

@Chewibacka

This is off because I read a few days ago that she had a baby girl the next day and there was a photo of her holding the baby and also the dad holding the baby...

That was a different woman. The woman who is still alive is the one they pictured coming down the stairs in fleecy pyjamas, not the one being stretchered away. They are different women.

Sorry cross posted.

[quote PestorPeston]@Alexandra2001

US foreign debt $30 trillion
102% of GDP

China foreign debt $2 and a bit trillion
29% of GDP

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt[/quote]
My bad, i meant what China owes USA and vice versa.

Ofgs. I am allowed to put anything in any way i damn well like. I can say BAD or bad or anything else if i feel it appropriate. I am allowed to be emotional, stressed or otherwise just like anyone else. I do think asking is really very troubling though - even the possibility of this aligning Russia and China v NATO/EU (thats an escalation we really don't want) - but it does suggest what has been said about Russia running out of munitions has some substance. You don't piss off the Chinese purely for psyops reasons. The Americans were worried about something.

China this morning has officially denied that a request has been made, and instead has accused the US of disinformation. This is a response I am unsure of what to make. Its possible they simply don't like the fact that intelligence is accurate and they don't want a public admission of it but have no intention of helping the Russians. Or it could be that they are planning to help Russia and don't like being caught with their trousers around their ankles with it. Its caused them embarrassment either way and thats enough of an issue I suspect.

Apparently the request included an appeal for drones. That would likely be the best option for trying to take out western supply routes which would be a real risk in terms of escalation with NATO.

Ive just seen this pop up on my twitter feed which clearly has some relevance here too.

The Associated Press
India is bracing for a disruption in Russian arms supplies following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Prime Minister Modi’s tightrope walk between Moscow and Washington could now become more difficult due to India's border standoff with China.

Obviously if Russia cannot meet its own demand for weapons its unlikely to be exporting them to India. China supplying Russia with arms, might therefore, be directly against its own interests.

So lots of reasons why China might tell Russia to piss off, for their own reasons. But you just don't know. Especially given Shenzhen and Shanghai are having covid lockdowns right now (they are industrial areas and are particularly significant to the electronics industry - talk this morning that China will take a significant GDP hit as a result). That said, it might well impact on China’s ability to help Russia even if it wants to, if it is shutting down production in such a large way. (one of Apple's suppliers has just shut all its factories to give you an idea of things - this is going to also have a ripple effect around the world and probably push up prices on things in addition to everything else putting pressure on inflation right now)

This really is a precarious and delicate issue which could very much either blow things up or force things the other way.