Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

Sorry for being hysterical in my earlier post.

I don’t want anyone to censor posts for my sake, but if others are feeling anxious too then it makes sense.

It’s a horrible uncertain time. I’m hoping China say no, but does that push Russia into a corner? Not a particularly good thing right? Or maybe it’ll force them to follow through with peace talks and negotiations.

Sajid Javid @sajidjavid
I can confirm that 21 very ill Ukrainian children with cancer have landed safely in UK this evening.

@NHSEngland will now ensure they get life-saving care in safety.

Hugely grateful to everyone involved in helping get these children and their families here.

This is much mmore positive news at least...

I agree with you that China is going to have to come off the fence soon. If it sticks with its current stance, it's going to piss off both sides

The other consideration is how much does Russia owe China currently ?

@blueshoes

At the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, Redtoothbrush is not the oracle.

If people want to take her word as gospel, that is their problem. She is allowed her own opinion and not obliged to rectify her views or justify her opinion to anyone FFS.

I have to agree with this. As someone who has depression & anxiety, I have been on Diazapam for over 2 years, I do understand how some can find this invasion worrying, but if reading this thread is making things worse, then surely the best thing to do is to not read it, have some kind of personal responsibility? I get that Reds post sounded a bit scary, but I'm sure these threads were started to discuss things and share opinions? Again I know how the anxiety can take over, for some reason I am not nervous about it, but coming off the thread would be the best thing is anxiety starts to creep up. I do hope everyone who is struggling can try & de-stress a bit.x

@AgnesWestern

I was worried when I seen that FT article too.

I've looked into it a little and read on another forum which seems to find out information faster than MN and people are saying Russia have been asking China for help for a while and China have said no. Apparently our intel has only just found this out. They are also saying that it's military aid they're asking for and not actual boots on the ground (I don't know if that makes a difference).

God I hope this is the case.

Pissing off both sides is also different to burning your bridges with one side entirely. With their current stance they're not really at risk of doing that.

Okay, I'm definitely not an expert, but here are my thoughts in why China's involvement would be BAD.

1. At the moment, horrific as it is, this is basically a localised conflict. China becoming involved is a big step closer to a world conflict. We would have Chinese supported/funded troops facing off against US supported/funded ones. That is not a stable situation.
2. Ukraine has three advantages. They're ballsy as fuck. They're fighting on home turf. And they have a steady influx of weapons. In contrast, we know Russia is running out of weapons and logistics. China's involvement cancels out that advantage.
3. China holds 1.1 trillion of US debt. So is in a position to exert significant economic harm on the US/the west. It's also a major exporter/manufacturer, so sanctioning them like we have Russia would hurt us infinitely more.
4. I would be confident in the ability of NATO to stand up militarily to Russia, if we got there. But not China.

“I agree with you that China is going to have to come off the fence soon. If it sticks with its current stance, it's going to piss off both sides”

^^

I really hope not, I think China has the potential to lower tensions here. If China is sincere here, they could help reach a solution faster. Perhaps a compromise, China won’t help militarily but will help reduce affects on sanctions. I understand the sanctions are in place however do we give a little & save millions of lives or stand firm and watch Putin reduce Ukraine to rubble. Happy to be corrected though

Have had guests all day, as a regular would anybody be so kind as to give me a very quick overview as to what's happened today?

When I left this morning there were noises about positive talks so that's where I'm up to... I'll go back and start reading the couple of hundred posts in the meantime!

@MagicFox

No one knows.

Literally no one.

Personally because this is such a fast moving thread, with so much information ( which I like) I think for you to get information, join some news papers on line, like The Times, maybe a USA one?

Then you can keep up to date but get more measured proper reported news.

www.reuters.com/world/white-house-adviser-discuss-russias-war-ukraine-with-chinas-top-diplomat-source-2022-03-13/

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who is due to meet with China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome on Monday, warned Beijing that it would "absolutely" face consequences if it helped Moscow evade sweeping sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Sullivan told CNN on Sunday the United States believed China was aware that Russia was planning some action in Ukraine before the invasion took place, although Beijing may not have understood the full extent of what was planned.

@blueshoes

At the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, Redtoothbrush is not the oracle.

If people want to take her word as gospel, that is their problem. She is allowed her own opinion and not obliged to rectify her views or justify her opinion to anyone FFS.

Of course. Lots of posts derived from opinion can be interesting to read.

At the same time - other posters are allowed to remind everyone that opinions are not fact, and nobody on this thread knows exactly what will happen.

Oooops !! That was for Agnes!!

@AgnesWestern

No one knows.

Literally no one.

Personally because this is such a fast moving thread, with so much information ( which I like) I think for you to get information, join some news papers on line, like The Times, maybe a USA one?

Then you can keep up to date but get more measured proper reported news.

@Shuuu

“I agree with you that China is going to have to come off the fence soon. If it sticks with its current stance, it's going to piss off both sides”

^^

I really hope not, I think China has the potential to lower tensions here. If China is sincere here, they could help reach a solution faster. Perhaps a compromise, China won’t help militarily but will help reduce affects on sanctions. I understand the sanctions are in place however do we give a little & save millions of lives or stand firm and watch Putin reduce Ukraine to rubble. Happy to be corrected though

China has stayed on the fence for absolutely everything.

I don't see them changing that policy

@MagicFox

Faster than MN??

Pray tell! which forum?

TBH I thought it moved pretty fast here!

@ToykoSushi A lot of waffle, some faintly positive noises about talks, some concerning news that Russia has more openly asked China for aid (Russia did it more subtly before) and Chernobyl has power again but the workers are getting very tired.

About China, I don't suppose the leadership are over-happy at being pushed into open decision-making here!

@Shuuu

“I agree with you that China is going to have to come off the fence soon. If it sticks with its current stance, it's going to piss off both sides”

^^

I really hope not, I think China has the potential to lower tensions here. If China is sincere here, they could help reach a solution faster. Perhaps a compromise, China won’t help militarily but will help reduce affects on sanctions. I understand the sanctions are in place however do we give a little & save millions of lives or stand firm and watch Putin reduce Ukraine to rubble. Happy to be corrected though

If China pisses off Russia, what does Putin actually do?

If China pisses off the US, its complicated.

3. China holds 1.1 trillion of US debt. So is in a position to exert significant economic harm on the US/the west

How would that debt be repaid if we end up with WW3 ? Or would they end up with a load of worthless IOU's ?

Blue shoes !At the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, Redtoothbrush is not the oracle.

If people want to take her word as gospel, that is their problem. She is allowed her own opinion and not obliged to rectify her views or justify her opinion to anyone FFS."

Absolutley - and RTB is blessed with a very cosy, ingratiating writing style.

Lets ,

Biggley hope ,

That China has read that article we all read, from The Man in Shanghai

( pretty please).

I cant see - as an arm chair observer what on earth China has to gain here unless they really want to do an actual " Axis of Evil".

What I mean by getting off the fence is clarifying where it stands on helping Russia. I can't quite see what damage refusing would do to China given Russia's economic state, whereas getting on the wrong side of the US would result in sanctions.

Rather weirdly Ukraine supplies military hardware to China.
China is a net exporter of arms and occupies about 5% of the market.
Every war on the planet (quite a few) has arms supplied by someone.

“We will ensure that neither China, nor anyone else, can compensate Russia for these losses,” said Sullivan, as he heads to Rome for talks with the Chinese. Just so they get the hint.

If china pisses off the USA it's complicated but China and US relations are at a real low (I bet Putin influenced Trump's approach to China). Maybe China sees a United Europe as a potential problem too? though given how quarrelsome the states are and that Europe isn't inclined to go into wars the way the US does, I can't see a United Europe really being a threat!

Russia will be badly weakened for a long time to come but less of a competitor for China. Mind you, Putin's a scorpion - you really don't want to hold him in your hand because he'll sting you.

In the long term America might want to consider reducing its national debt. That's an ongoing bleed.

1. I would be confident in the ability of NATO to stand up militarily to Russia, if we got there. But not China.

^^China is also riddled with corruption, are they sure their army isn't all Paper Tiger as well

What is their tech like> I read Taiwan hold the world to ransom on various components. What would Taiwan do if China stepped in?
As PP mentioned what happens to dear Kim getting all excited that his Nukes can be waived over all heads?

The worlds Biggest ecconimies at the last look - USA, China, Japan, Germany - then UK.

Money - makes the world go around.