Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

I'm seeing commentary that Putin's emphasis on Chechens, Syrians and volunteers is about suppressing rumours of conscription.

I've just translated the rebuttal article on chrome, I didn't read it as saying that China was siding with Russia. I read it as suggesting that China could act as a peace broker and use its position to improve relations with the EU. But perhaps something was lost in translation.

As an aside , biden was criticized for exactly the Same issue's over Afghanistan

One hopes that since that awful debacle (where people predicted the shift in global power) he's learned his lesson.

Hints of progress at talks?

Hugo Bachega
BBC News, Lviv

Are Russians and Ukrainians making progress in their talks about the war? We’ve been given some indications that maybe they are.

“I think that we’ll achieve some results literally in a matter of days,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian negotiator and adviser to President Volodymir Zelensky, said.

He cautioned, however, that Ukraine would not “concede in principle on any positions”.

“Russia now understands this. Russia is already beginning to talk constructively,” he added.

From Russia, Leonid Slutsky was quoted as saying: “According to my personal expectations, this progress may grow in the coming days into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing.”

The comments are a bit encrypted, and this can be seen as a sign of how difficult these negotiations are. And there was no detail on what exactly they’re talking about. Ceasefire? End of the war? And what exactly are their demands at the negotiation table?

Both sides have already held three rounds of talks in Belarus, which focused mainly on humanitarian issues.

It’s day 18 of the war. Thousands of civilians are in desperate need of aid. Dozens are still dying every day. A deal to end all of this couldn’t come soon enough.

So to adds to the Evil Gnome, apparently according to Ukraine's Ambassador to Austria, Ukrainian's refer to Putin as 'The Bunker Dwarf'.

@shreddednips

I've just translated the rebuttal article on chrome, I didn't read it as saying that China was siding with Russia. I read it as suggesting that China could act as a peace broker and use its position to improve relations with the EU. But perhaps something was lost in translation.

Hope you're right @shreddednips

@Notonthestairs

Fascinating article linked to in this tweet below. The article was written by a Chinese policy advisor. Really worth a read. It's given me a bit of hope that China will change tack (whilst understanding that it would do so only to strengthen its own position)

twitter.com/ramez/status/1502895847301812224?s=21

"He closes by saying that China has 1-2 WEEKS in which to make a choice. And basically says that China should choose the West, and use its influence over Putin to end the war and bring him to heel. It says that China is the only nation that can. I don't disagree."

I've seen this in a few places. A very interesting perspective.

@DuncinToffee

Hints of progress at talks?

Hugo Bachega
BBC News, Lviv

Are Russians and Ukrainians making progress in their talks about the war? We’ve been given some indications that maybe they are.

“I think that we’ll achieve some results literally in a matter of days,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian negotiator and adviser to President Volodymir Zelensky, said.

He cautioned, however, that Ukraine would not “concede in principle on any positions”.

“Russia now understands this. Russia is already beginning to talk constructively,” he added.

From Russia, Leonid Slutsky was quoted as saying: “According to my personal expectations, this progress may grow in the coming days into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing.”

The comments are a bit encrypted, and this can be seen as a sign of how difficult these negotiations are. And there was no detail on what exactly they’re talking about. Ceasefire? End of the war? And what exactly are their demands at the negotiation table?

Both sides have already held three rounds of talks in Belarus, which focused mainly on humanitarian issues.

It’s day 18 of the war. Thousands of civilians are in desperate need of aid. Dozens are still dying every day. A deal to end all of this couldn’t come soon enough.

Any news like this has to be taken as positive. Even a couple of days ago it was a flat, no backing down response from Putin.

But even with psyops a consideration, you don't ask for foreign fighters to volunteer for free and then beg China to prop you up cos sanctions if all is well.

This isn't wishful thinking. Thats reality being a bitch.

And sm is awash with what hunter has been up to

MagicFox, I felt like the gist of it was that China's position was more subtle than cutting ties with Russia and siding with the west. It was more that it wanted to use its position to build connections with Europe, whereas it finds the prospect of allying with the US unpalatable. It also didn't seem to be an 'official' rebuttal, more offering a different perspective. I do find it interesting that a 'softening' in Russia's approach to negotiation (outwardly at least) seems to have coincided with whispers of a change in China's stance, but maybe that's wishful thinking. It would be good to see a translation of the piece because I think the chrome translator probably missed some of the nuance.

This may seem a bit light for this thread, but this story about Peppa Pig has me wondering - is the use of that particular figure a media game or a specific personal dig at the U.K. politicians from Putin? Encouraging foreigners to the fight on Russia’s side seemed like a dig at Truss. Are there similar references happening to France’s politicians, or those of other countries?

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-targets-peppa-pig-in-retaliation-for-sanctions-amid-battle-over-cartoon-characters-trademark-12564846

Re China, here is another article.(By Kim Darroch and John Ashton - First published in the Daily Telegraph on Thursday 10th March 2022)
www.bestforbritain.org/the_west_must_make_sure_xi_jinping_is_never_tempted_to_walk_putin_s_path

Regarding the sanctions, could they really be lifted as soon as some kind of deal has been worked out? It just seems a bit pointless & almost like Putin gets to walk away as if nothing has happened. Or would they start slowly?

Isn’t the whole problem with those peace negotiation talks is that neither the Ukrainian delegation nor the rest of the world can believe or trust a single word uttered by Putin/the Kremlin?

Absolutely everything said in relation to the Ukraine has been a lie right from ‘oh those 100,000+ troops amassing on the border are only on a military exercise’. Right through to every action in the war so far.

Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was in direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum, but I’d read that he dismissed this by claiming the memorandum had never been legally binding. So, say the talks conclude with an ‘agreement’ and ceasefire, why couldn’t the same be applied to any negotiated settlement? Then, the minute Zelensky comes back out into the open, he’s sure to be a dead man.

Regarding the sanctions, could they really be lifted as soon as some kind of deal has been worked out?

I guess they could be but Russia's economy is going to be fucked for a long time regardless and they will still be a pariah on the world's stage. No one is going to want to invest there after this for example, it will be seen as much too large a risk.

The oil and gas situation will be interesting. I assume we’ll just go back to using it? But maybe with an eye on energy security for future

And some like Abramovich - what would happen there

@Papertyger

And sm is awash with what hunter has been up to

You clearly follow a lot of people who peddle crap. I suggest you rectify this.

@Iwasfeelingepic

Regarding the sanctions, could they really be lifted as soon as some kind of deal has been worked out? It just seems a bit pointless & almost like Putin gets to walk away as if nothing has happened. Or would they start slowly?

They are going to be in place to a degree for a while...

Besides the ruble is fucked and thats not recovering for a while.

@shreddednips

MagicFox, I felt like the gist of it was that China's position was more subtle than cutting ties with Russia and siding with the west. It was more that it wanted to use its position to build connections with Europe, whereas it finds the prospect of allying with the US unpalatable. It also didn't seem to be an 'official' rebuttal, more offering a different perspective. I do find it interesting that a 'softening' in Russia's approach to negotiation (outwardly at least) seems to have coincided with whispers of a change in China's stance, but maybe that's wishful thinking. It would be good to see a translation of the piece because I think the chrome translator probably missed some of the nuance.

It's a long article, but just to quote the bit that sort of sums up the flavour:

'Compared with cutting with Russia, I am more in favor of jointly mediating the war with the EU (especially Germany and France), and the more active the better, the sooner the better.

In a sense, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict provides an opportunity for “creative transformation” in China-EU relations.'

Thanks for the replies. I don't know if wrong is the right word, but if Abramovich and the likes, get to resume business as usual, it seems off to me. I wish the normal Russian people could go back to 'normal' but Putin & his pals still had some kind of Punishment, for a better word.

Power restored to Chernobyl nuclear site

Ukraine's atomic energy ministry says power has been restored to the Chernobyl nuclear plant, following warnings of the increased risk of a radiation leak if a high-voltage power line damaged in the fighting was not repaired.

Cooling systems are operating normally with no requirement for backup power, the atomic energy ministry said.

Russian forces seized the nuclear power plant - the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster - on the first day of the invasion last month.

Although no longer a working power station, Chernobyl was never fully abandoned and still requires constant management.

Concerns remain for the staff who remain at the power plant under the authority of Russian forces.

Workers continue to go about their duties and the atmosphere is said to be calm, but the BBC has been told that the conditions inside are difficult, with food and medicine limited.

DuncinToffee thanks for the update on Chernobyl and thank goodness.

@Iwasfeelingepic

Regarding the sanctions, could they really be lifted as soon as some kind of deal has been worked out? It just seems a bit pointless & almost like Putin gets to walk away as if nothing has happened. Or would they start slowly?

There is a thought that - not having instigated this - the US will use it as an opportunity to remove a "near peer" from their list of worries for a decade or two.

I think this is change energy policy - no one is going to want to be dependant on Russian gas and oil as long as Putin is in charge. The change will be slow, but it will happen.

I suspect sanctions being lifted will depend on how much money Ukraine gets/needs to rebuild.

@DGRossetti - could you explain what that means re: a "near peer" please?