Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

Sky news now

Gah! My computer keeps crashing!

I must say I feel very reassured after listening to him.
He said lot's of background has gone on into looking into the MIGs.

It was not viable but they are doubling down on weapons that will assist with what they want to achieve.

@Notonthestairs

Fascinating article linked to in this tweet below. The article was written by a Chinese policy advisor. Really worth a read. It's given me a bit of hope that China will change tack (whilst understanding that it would do so only to strengthen its own position)

twitter.com/ramez/status/1502895847301812224?s=21

"He closes by saying that China has 1-2 WEEKS in which to make a choice. And basically says that China should choose the West, and use its influence over Putin to end the war and bring him to heel. It says that China is the only nation that can. I don't disagree."

notonthestairs great article from the Chinese policy advisor and RedToothBrush's take on it.

Not sure how the Chinese leadership think but I am have more hope that they are pragmatic and can think things through not just politically but economically in the short, medium and long term in planning their chess moves. War throws up opportunities for China and I don't think they would want to side with the loser. It is the chance for them to burnish their reputation with the West, whilst still pursuing their own objectives.

@Papertyger

Jake Sullivan, national security adviser Also seems very level headed ( us) very strong on Putin's use of chemical weapons. Said it's been made directly clear to Putin what will happen if chemical weapons used , but he doesn't want to say it on media. Also it's been made clear to Beijing there are consequences of bailing out Putin.

Good.

That sounds about right with where I'd put things.

I have to say that publicly, there is no point in the West setting firm red lines. I think it would do more to scare the public than Putin.

Strategically there is no benefit to the West stepping in at this point. Ironically Ukraine holding their own means they can afford to step back and make that calculated gamble.

It has struck me that all the work Biden has been doing has been behind the scenes on really ramping up those sanctions and working on the diplomacy internationally to try and 'go fast and go hard' in order to keep things as short as possible.

I am guessing the latest intelligence (which does keep dripping through) and is reflected in what Putin himself is saying and doing, is a growing desparation from Russia.

There's also been a fair amount of reflection of Clausewitz theories on war (historic general wrote a book) and the idea that there is a 'culminating point' as a attacking force hits the wall of resistance and can't continue going on online. There does seem to be this feeling that Russia is running out of manpower, options and money and thats going to force its hand within a fortnight at most (a lot can happen in a fortnight. There are towns that no longer exist that were there a fortnight ago).

I don't know if I am as optimistic as this, but Putin's body language and that of his chronies isn't positive at all. And Putin's calls for foreign troops don't exactly say 'winning'.

It would be great if Jake or Tony Blinken could stand for president next time, although I appreciate it's key to have such people in the background.

I do feel reassured.

I concur on the last post.

This guy is the FSB leak guy:

Igor Sushko @igorsushko
FINANCIAL NEWS: Russian government is broke and needs money asap. They have a huge stockpile of gold so they thought they'd be OK, at least for a while. However, no one is willing to buy Russian gold right now - they've been discounting it 20% and still barely if any buyers.

Also - apparently the Russian government will begin, if they haven't started, raiding safety deposit boxes belonging to regular bank customers. Probably looking for USD and EUR cash.

Good thread >
twitter.com/FlorianMKern/status/1499339625671938052
Florian M. Kern @FlorianMKern
First, the gold market is simply not very liquid. Never in history did the aggregated sales of all(!) central banks (CBs) exceed 400t in a year(!). And when that happened, gold market participants were already accusing CBs of “market manipulation”.

Russia has 2000t of gold. There is just absolutely no way Russia could sell more than 5-10% of its gold reserves within like a month. If Russia was starting to sell, prices would plummet, as there is simply very little market depth(important!) in the gold market.

Igor Sushko @igorsushko
I see lots of interest in getting Gold at 20% off in Twitterverse. One asked how. Let me explain:
You'd need to personally show up in Moscow with cash since bank transfers don't work. And there are no planes. All of your cash will be stolen at the border as you enter Russia. END

By the way, among several things that I disagree with #WindofHope in the #FSBletters this is a big one - he thought there'd be nothing left by June. I always thought it'd be just weeks as soon as sanctions got announced.

The two ex-FSB officers who confirmed authenticity (as much as they can) of the 1st letter also said they disagree with some of the forecasts that he makes. Don't have detail on what specifically.

Putin as recently as a few days ago: "Everything is going according to plan."

I've seen April 15th as the day Russia runs out of money cited from another source.

That again suggests that Russia has around two weeks before it REALLY starts hitting a major issue.

I do get a certain amount of Chemical Ali vibes starting to go on.

I've read a couple of articles written by expats living in Russia about the current situation but I'm wondering if expats are making any contingency plans about Russia becoming an extremely hostile environment, regardless of how this war pans out. I suppose if you choose to live in a country without full democracy and acknowledged human rights issues you have to accept you are taking on a risk, but I wonder how much life is about to change for people in Russia now?

twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1503024136523767814
Video of Zelensky walking around Kyiv to go and visit soliders in hospital.

(Can't wait for Putin's staged hospital visit...)

I'd be very cautious of many such stories. PsyOps are used by both sides. We desperately want to believe it's all going wrong for the Russian side. But they are still moving forward and taking more ground. We don't know what their battle strategy was - what if slow and steady was the plan all along?

They don't need to buy military stuff - they make their own and they have raw materials. They're not like a western nation, who needs to trade and use finiancial instruments to keep the juggling show on the road.

I didn't mean to sound like a Russian apologist - couldn't be further from the truth! - rather I just wanted to point out some pitfalls of assuming what matters to us will also matter to the enemy

And that unconfirmed stories shouldn't be relied on

@EsmaCannonball

I've read a couple of articles written by expats living in Russia about the current situation but I'm wondering if expats are making any contingency plans about Russia becoming an extremely hostile environment, regardless of how this war pans out. I suppose if you choose to live in a country without full democracy and acknowledged human rights issues you have to accept you are taking on a risk, but I wonder how much life is about to change for people in Russia now?

Well a Venezula-like scenario is what is being aimed for by the West. Thats 90% in poverty with many resorting to raiding rubbish for food as they can't afford it. There'll be a nice lot of gangs, raiding anyone who is a target or they think has stuff....

@meditrina

I'd be very cautious of many such stories. PsyOps are used by both sides. We desperately want to believe it's all going wrong for the Russian side. But they are still moving forward and taking more ground. We don't know what their battle strategy was - what if slow and steady was the plan all along?

They don't need to buy military stuff - they make their own and they have raw materials. They're not like a western nation, who needs to trade and use finiancial instruments to keep the juggling show on the road.

I didn't mean to sound like a Russian apologist - couldn't be further from the truth! - rather I just wanted to point out some pitfalls of assuming what matters to us will also matter to the enemy

And that unconfirmed stories shouldn't be relied on

I don’t think the original plan was slow and steady all the time but they do seem to been forced to go back to their old way of doing things by solid Ukraine resistance..however I don’t think there’s any real thought they are in a position to make up losses by producing new equipment so the Russians are very much into a war of attrition/race against time and losses now..

I’d strongly second your point about the need for caution when reading any of the stories and analysis that’s circulating…

Yes, I too fear that Russia's advantages are being downplayed. However, sanctions are going to massively impact Russia's ability to supply its armed forces. A lot is made of the Soviet Union's strength in winning WW2, but they were heavily dependent on money, supplies and weaponry from the US and UK. They are in a much worse position now.

Well a Venezula-like scenario is what is being aimed for by the West. Thats 90% in poverty with many resorting to raiding rubbish for food as they can't afford it. There'll be a nice lot of gangs, raiding anyone who is a target or they think has stuff....

And this worries me very much. Russia can descend into lawlessness very easily, and it will take decades for things to normalise. Add to that the huge amount of weaponry and munitions, nuclear and whatnot included, and we're almost back to square one, except without Putin.

I just cannot see a good solution to this fucking mess Putin got us all into.

@meditrina

I'd be very cautious of many such stories. PsyOps are used by both sides. We desperately want to believe it's all going wrong for the Russian side. But they are still moving forward and taking more ground. We don't know what their battle strategy was - what if slow and steady was the plan all along?

They don't need to buy military stuff - they make their own and they have raw materials. They're not like a western nation, who needs to trade and use finiancial instruments to keep the juggling show on the road.

I didn't mean to sound like a Russian apologist - couldn't be further from the truth! - rather I just wanted to point out some pitfalls of assuming what matters to us will also matter to the enemy

And that unconfirmed stories shouldn't be relied on

I agree. But given the utter end of the world stuff thats been going on, I also think there needs to be some more positive stuff too.

If the stories about how his Generals cannot tell Putin bad news - otherwise the messenger gets shot - are true, then how can Putin make good decisions. I am sure the Russian army is having some success (especially in the South) but will he know the extent to which how long he can continue to fight on or re-supply or even implement a military strategy if troops or even mercenaries cannot be relied upon to fight or show up?

He cannot be all see-ing and all-knowing on the battlefield but who can he trust to give him good information?

Caveat: I know nothing about war or military tactics but logically, I would be very afraid as Putin because I don't know the depths of my ignorance or see a way out of this. But of course Putin is on his own sphere in terms of his thought processes and is probably happy to believe the hype and continue to threaten and posture until the wheels fall off.

I was thinking that since Putin calls this war a special operation when it comes to his invasion, but a war when it comes to sanctions, he might claim expats in Russia are spies or introduce internment camps. I've seen lots of stuff about Russians getting out of Russia while they can but nothing about expats.

I have wondered if sanctions would mean each region has to become more independent economically. Globalism is something that only benefits the exceptionally rich.

Yeah, Putin could arrest expats on trumped-up charges and use them as hostages/bargaining chips with the West. Like Iran.

I just saw this, sorry if it’s already been posted, but I feel it’s positive.
Fingers crossed.

@Notonthestairs

Fascinating article linked to in this tweet below. The article was written by a Chinese policy advisor. Really worth a read. It's given me a bit of hope that China will change tack (whilst understanding that it would do so only to strengthen its own position)

twitter.com/ramez/status/1502895847301812224?s=21

"He closes by saying that China has 1-2 WEEKS in which to make a choice. And basically says that China should choose the West, and use its influence over Putin to end the war and bring him to heel. It says that China is the only nation that can. I don't disagree."

Reports that this article has been censored in China and a rebuttal published. Suggestions China likely to side with putin : twitter.com/ramez/status/1503050727286972419?s=21

If the stories about how his Generals cannot tell Putin bad news - otherwise the messenger gets shot - are true, then how can Putin make good decisions.

Its the fatal flaw of every dictator...

... They can't. They rule by fear. The truth catches up eventually. In the meantime lots of people end up dying.

Yes lots of positive talks about negotiations today. I just hope everyone can keep cool heads on for the next few days and hopefully they can get something concrete going :)

Steve Rosenberg
Tonight Russian state TV’s flagship news show tells viewers Russian troops are in Ukraine to stop Ukraine joining Nato, getting a nuclear bomb, attacking Crimea & then southern Russia, ie Ukraine was a threat to Russia. Alternative reality. More of what host Kiselev said'
twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1503048996205600769?t=RRMi9L0poNYqST-C0kynhA&s=19