Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

That Chinese article is brilliant.

ooh ,fab news shreddednips

A Russian delegate involved in peace negotiations with Ukraine has said the talks have made "substantial progress" and a "joint position" could be reached soon, the state-controlled Russian news agency RIA has reported.

Leonid Slutsky added the delegations could soon reach draft agreements between the two sides.

Mr Slutsky said: "According to my personal expectations, this progress may grow in the coming days into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing."

The development comes after Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak also said on Sunday that he thought progress could be made in the negotiations in the coming days.

He added that the Russian side had become more constructive.

Ukraine has previously said it is willing to negotiate, but not to surrender or accept any ultimatums

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-military-base-used-for-nato-drills-near-poland-targeted-by-russian-airstrikes-12564880

@Wrongkindofovercoat

Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, looks like what you'd get if you walked into Dobbies and asked for an Axis of Evil Garden Gnome

@EsmaCannonball funniest thing Ive read all day

😆 this prompted me to google him and it's so accurate 😆

[quote peridito]ooh ,fab news shreddednips

A Russian delegate involved in peace negotiations with Ukraine has said the talks have made "substantial progress" and a "joint position" could be reached soon, the state-controlled Russian news agency RIA has reported.

Leonid Slutsky added the delegations could soon reach draft agreements between the two sides.

Mr Slutsky said: "According to my personal expectations, this progress may grow in the coming days into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing."

The development comes after Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak also said on Sunday that he thought progress could be made in the negotiations in the coming days.

He added that the Russian side had become more constructive.

Ukraine has previously said it is willing to negotiate, but not to surrender or accept any ultimatums

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-military-base-used-for-nato-drills-near-poland-targeted-by-russian-airstrikes-12564880[/quote]
Great to read

Feel somewhat relieved

If true, this is brilliant news but what a waste.

Something I've been wondering about. If, and it's a massive if, some kind of agreement can be reached between Russia and Ukraine, what happens with the sanctions against Russia?

Interesting re China red, thanks for your pondering

It seems to me then that it has more to gain with this atrocity stopped, however it won't come out right and say it and upset Russia.

@RedToothBrush

Also reports that journalist Oleg Baturyn has disappeared in Kherson today.

There are a few stories now about strategic kidnappings. I read about a museum director who was arrested then released, with the Russians retaining her phone. I guess one of the risks with modern resistance and dissent is that most people will be carrying tech which will immediately inform the enemy on who else they need to detain.

"Axis of evil garden gnome"

I would imagine the sanctions are part of the negotiation. But as other posters have pointed out Russia would be distrusted for a generation, and I think dependent countries for energy etc would still be looking to be more self sufficient.
I can see a renewed push towards nuclear energy in the future, which of course brings its own risks.

[quote WeAreTheHeroes]@PerkingFaintly - DP doesn't need his eyes opening to Putin's MO thanks, he's much better informed than I am and reads widely from a number of different reputable sources.

In a war both sides use disinformation and propaganda. Just because I've repeated something that has been suggested to me could be an explanation and we collectively don't like or believe it doesn't mean it isn't a possible explanation. Ukraine has repeatedly called for a NFZ and this could be a tactic. Just as Russia may have chosen to deliberately attack a base used by NATO very close to the Polish border in order to provoke, to frighten, who knows why. Or maybe just to destroy weapons and capabilities which could be used against them.[/quote]
No, you've missed the point.

It's not a case of whether "we collectively like" an idea emotionally, or whether there is disinformation and propaganda flying about (there is).

It's that your supposed explanation makes no sense.

It's always fine to consider, "Is this particular piece of news likely to be true?" But the supposed alternative explanation also has to meet likelihood tests.

When one starts trying to pretzel oneself too much to explain things away, it's often a sign to take a break and recalibrate.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief

I would imagine the sanctions are part of the negotiation. But as other posters have pointed out Russia would be distrusted for a generation, and I think dependent countries for energy etc would still be looking to be more self sufficient. I can see a renewed push towards nuclear energy in the future, which of course brings its own risks.

Yes that is what I was wondering, I can see that there has to be some way out of the sanctions if there's to be any motivation for Russia to back down. But on the other hand, it seems completely wrong that Putin could reach an agreement with Ukraine and then resume as normal, having caused all that death and devastation. I feel sorry for Russians who have nothing to do with Putin's regime having to bear the brunt of it, but I do hope there are lasting consequences of his actions to serve as a cautionary tale for anyone considering something similar in the future.

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-military-base-used-for-nato-drills-near-poland-targeted-by-russian-airstrikes-12564880

From Sky News but can't see this reported elsewhere.

A Russian delegate involved in peace negotiations with Ukraine has said the talks have made "substantial progress" and a "joint position" could be reached soon, the state-controlled Russian news agency RIA has reported.

Leonid Slutsky added the delegations could soon reach draft agreements.

Mr Slutsky said: "According to my personal expectations, this progress may grow in the coming days into a joint position of both delegations, into documents for signing."

The development comes after Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak also said on Sunday that he thought progress could be made in the negotiations in the coming days.

He added that the Russian side had become more constructive.

I’m dearly hoping re negotiations but yes it will be interesting to see re sanctions

They were used to try to stop the war so once it ends they should go. As hard as it seems after what has happened

I also wonder about individuals who have been sanctioned and what will happen

@MarshaBradyo

I’m dearly hoping re negotiations but yes it will be interesting to see re sanctions

They were used to try to stop the war so once it ends they should go. As hard as it seems after what has happened

I also wonder about individuals who have been sanctioned and what will happen

I suppose even without sanctions, there will still be significant harm to the Russian economy assuming that EU countries follow through on reducing their reliance on Russian fuel. I can't imagine many of the people who have left Russia will be rushing back either, leaving it with a brain drain crisis. And companies that have pulled out of Russia can make their own decisions.

Doh sorry - somehow hadn't refreshed and posted the same news.

Re the evil garden gnome.

Been doing some looking up on him today.

Lots circulating.

A video from Russia Today seems to be reporting he has gone up to the front (7km from Kyiv) to rally the troops along with footage of a planeload of Chechens.

Now this seems to be being backed up by information coming from the Ukrainian side.

Keep in mind other twitter chat and verified information about how the Ukrainians have been doing in this area. The institute for the study of war verified Ukrainian push back and there is unverified reports that some Russian battalions have lost 20% in this area.

There has also been talk (allegedly a quote from the gnome himself) that his men had been unhappy with the progress of the war.

And even more noise about possibly looking to go for an assassination of Zelensky (again).

Theres a number of ways to read all this. Certainly an assault on Kyiv is expected. But we also know that Russian Generals going up the front to wave their arms at demoralised troops hasn't been a good sign for Putin too.

Not on the stairs great article.

I think that one and the ft one should be pinned to these threads.

Do actuall policy maker's in China think along these lines though.

I guess in the axis of evil, Pakistan is a non issue?

" 7km Delmar the front"

Isn't that amazing wari Canadian synper out there. He can supposedly shoot from further than that.
What a moral boost if he can be taken out

7 km from the front

Here's an interesting article for those asking about the sanctions and if/how/when they would be lifted:

warontherocks.com/2022/03/making-coercion-work-against-russia/

Theres a number of ways to read all this. Certainly an assault on Kyiv is expected. But we also know that Russian Generals going up the front to wave their arms at demoralised troops hasn't been a good sign for Putin too.

Not just that, but also three of his generals killed while waving their arms at his troops is not really how Putin expected things to happen. Generals don't really get themselves killed in action.

@MarshaBradyo

That's given me some hope! Thank you for sharing.

Re The Evil Garden Gnome.

Russia Today is apparently reporting that he and his special forces are 7km from Kyiv.

There's also noise from the Ukrainian side on him. Suggesting that his men don't like whats happening, and hes gone up the front to rally the troops.

And there's yet more with a video of a plane load of reinforcements having been send to Ukraine to help in the North. (Apparently multiple plane loads are rumoured)

On top of that, there's mutterings about assassination squads etc.

There's been pushback by the Ukrainians in this area (verified) and (unverified) talk that they have taken out about 20% of some battalions in that area. So actually, all this noise possibly is fairly consistant and fits together with information being pushed by both sides from what I can see.

It could mean that Kyiv is about to be hit. And hit hard and ruthlessly.

Equally, the Evil Gnome going to the front to tell his troops what to do though doesn't sound like its coming from a place of strength given what we know about the fate of Russian Generals who have already gone to the front to wave their arms about.

Jake Sullivan, national security adviser Also seems very level headed ( us) very strong on Putin's use of chemical weapons.
Said it's been made directly clear to Putin what will happen if chemical weapons used , but he doesn't want to say it on media.
Also it's been made clear to Beijing there are consequences of bailing out Putin.

Good.