I think there is some merit to the China idea and I have pondered it to a degree.
China isn't keen on destabilisation as a rule (Tiananmen Square occurred at a point where there was a destablisation). China is dealing with covid still - and their vaccines are proving no where near as good as western ones. Their policy of zero covid first is starting to look problematic in HK as resources weren't put into the drive for vaccination. And the vaccination rate isn't anywhere near what it should be. There's been outcry this week over photos of patients in hospital beds whilst body bags are piled up on the floor.
And whilst this war works to China's favour by creating some opportunities, China generally favours a slower march forward because its more sustainable in the long term. Great shifts create greater unknowns.
You have to perhaps put North Korea and South Korea into the equation here. If Russia were to open pandora's box and use a nuke, it makes it far more likely that the same would happen on the Korean peninsula. That wouldn't be so cool for China for various reasons.
This week South Korea elected a conservative, Yoon Suk-yeol as its new president. He has said his government will prioritise "rebuilding the alliance" with the US and will no longer tolerate North Korean provocations and "bad habits".
China, will be taking notes.
More than that, in seeing how Russian interdependency with the US has been bad, many Western Governments and individuals are likely to start reassessing economic relationships with China. It was already starting to happen to a degree, due to politics and covid disruption. This will push it further. China's economic relationship with the US is larger. And an economic recession in the US and Western Europe will also decrease demands further - China needs busy hands. Idle hands means domestic issues it doesn't want.
The fact that Russia has effectly made a plea today about China and needing them to get around sanctions (as reported by Reuters) is interesting. It suggests a growing awareness that China is already blocking access to a degree and may go further. Plus its timely...
Kaitlan Collins@kaitlancollins
^News — Jake Sullivan is set to meet with China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome tomorrow, where Russia's invasion of Ukraine is expected to be a "significant topic." Story with @FossumSamuel
edition.cnn.com/2022/03/13/politics/jake-sullivan-meeting-chinese-counterpart-ukraine/index.html
National security adviser Jake Sullivan to meet with Chinese counterpart amid Ukraine invasion
The Russian's sound a bit rattled and worried about prospect China deciding to side with the West in any way. But in reality there is little they can do about it.
There's been other threads about this, but the overall point seemed to be that China had little to gain by siding with Russia. And being neutral didn't serve them that well either after a certain point. The weakness of Russia is something that will be around for a while and they can make use of now, with a prompt end to the war.
But China has got a track record of deliberately staying out of things, so they may decide to do that regardless and intervention may only be wishful thinking by the west.... China could see dominance over Russia in the future as a goal which it can achieve by backing it. (Something they might see as achievable by not backing it too though).
Russia really should be looking over its shoulder though.