Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

@strawberriesarenot

When do you think there might be peace? I can't see how this is sustainable. The poor families in besieged towns and Ukraine must be full of western arms that Russia could use. I can utterly understand Zelensky long term, but short term, should he not concede? Until a regime change in Russia?which would surely come about once sanctions are lifted and the Russian people learn the truth.

People will jump on you and say 'what just hand over Ukraine' etc.

But ultimately yes at some point it will be recognised that the conditions in Ukraine cannot continue and negotiation will have to step up a notch.

Remember on Ukraine's side as well as Russia's you have conscripts who did not want to fight. This is both sides having low moral and and some point that will waiver

[quote Alexandra2001]@1dayatatime So hand over Ukraine to Putin now is what you are saying?
What do you think he will do to the pop. which has dared to oppose him?

De-escalation only works when both sides want it.[/quote]
Therein lies the dilemma facing the West. If NATO do nothing and send no support then Ukraine will eventually fall and thousands will die.

If NATO follow their current strategy of just sending enough weapons to help Ukraine but not of a type or scale that would bring them into direct conflict with Russia. Then the war will be protracted with no real winner and a lot more Ukrainians will die than in scenario 1.

Or NATO intervenes such as with a no fly zone which will lead to a war with Russia that then could easily escalate in a nuclear conflict.

So yes I understand your emotive stance that if nothing is done to help Ukraine then there is a high probability that Russia will win and thousands of Ukrainians will die.

But I hope you can also see that if NATO does get involved then there is a lower probability but still a real risk of a nuclear conflict in which the world loses and millions die.

I've had a few days away from the news as on a weekend break . Reading headlines just now has set my heart thumping.
An air strike has hit 15 km from a NATO boundary. Various articles hinting Nuclear War is a very very real possibility.
For the first time I'm actually physically scared. It all feels unstoppable.

I do agree that. Nato should not be involved.
I am from a rural farming community. I am amazed that no one talks about the the need to get the wheat in. They have 3 weeks max before no harvest which would starve the poorest nations.
A mutual amnesty? For the greater good? Weapons into plough shares is ancient wisdom but still true.

@Papertyger

Kafka I see you shot down the startresk manpads. The military commentators on twitter were far more hopeful about them and said once they are in play, they wouldn't want to be in Russian fighter plane.

Ah, the twittersphere - where it is easy for some to display confidence in kit since often those commentating literally don’t have skin in the game.

Starstreak possibly fills a bit of a capability/operating envelope gap between the MANPADS (shoulder launched stuff such as Stinger), which by their nature are short range, and have limited capability against fast jets, and the longer range vehicle carried ordnance such as the S-300.

Starstreak would also certainly aid in protecting key sites (such as ordnance depots and airfields) against some forms of air attack but not everything that the Russians can throw at such targets.

Overall I would certainly agree that if deployed and if operators are trained properly Starstreak would no doubt be a good thing from a Ukrainian POV and add to the Russian Air Forces long list of things causing headaches but I wouldn’t take bets on it ending Russian air ops….

@Happylittlethoughts

I've had a few days away from the news as on a weekend break . Reading headlines just now has set my heart thumping. An air strike has hit 15 km from a NATO boundary. Various articles hinting Nuclear War is a very very real possibility. For the first time I'm actually physically scared. It all feels unstoppable.

I have missed this

Do things feel different? More at risk today

@strawberriesarenot - exactly this point has been discussed in the last week. On Radio 4's Today programme for starters. There is real concern about world food shortages as Ukrainian farmers are defending the country, not planting this year's crop.

I was very worried when I first heard about the NATO training base being hit. Logically, the proximity to the Polish border is incidental, it's clearly a military target for the Russians.

@Happylittlethoughts

I've had a few days away from the news as on a weekend break . Reading headlines just now has set my heart thumping. An air strike has hit 15 km from a NATO boundary. Various articles hinting Nuclear War is a very very real possibility. For the first time I'm actually physically scared. It all feels unstoppable.

I believe you are referring to the Ukranian training base. That was likely targeted because it is a depot for weapons moving over the border or is or was used for training on those systems. It is still 15km inside the Ukranian border and Russia will be prepared to go to within 1 metre of the border. That is the nature of borders. Even if a missile accidentally strayed into Poland or Romania that would not be the start of involving NATO. That is one red line The Kremlin will not wish to take. For Russia the Fatherland is everything. For Putin the Fatherland is above its people.

@notimagain thanks for explaining about the air defence weapons. So, in your opinion are they being sent to alleviate the public angst around closing the skies or do they fill a real military gap? Where I get confused is if they can't fully defend the cities, won't Russia just bring out the big guns from the outset? I'm so glad I'm not in charge of military strategy. It looks like a game of chess where there's only one winner and the only thing that can be influenced is how long the chess game lasts?

The risk is there of course!
But we have a cool headed US president and a lot of unity in Europe.
So please stop getting yourself worked up. The end is nigh for Putin. It is a matter of time for him to be taken out by his own.
It will happen but the sooner the better for the sake of Ukrainians, Russians and the rest of the World.
Regarding mercenaries, yes they are often used throughout the middle East to inflict terror on populations. 2009 they were brought into suppress protests in Iran and they were brutal. It does seem like the Russian army have many doubters.

@WeAreTheHeroes

I was very worried when I first heard about the NATO training base being hit. Logically, the proximity to the Polish border is incidental, it's clearly a military target for the Russians.

Agreed. At some point, attacks on targets closer to the Polish border were inevitable, but I'm not sure we should be reading it as Russia being willing to strike Poland itself. I'm not sure what the strategic importance of that base is but if it's being used to distribute weapons, I can see why it's been targeted.

Even if a missile did accidentally stray into NATO territory, it would be absolutely terrible for the area that it hit but I don't see why it would inevitably lead to an immediate, all-out war. That wouldn't be a proportionate response from NATO.

Yes @GallopingHighRoad - I was referring to mortar shellfire.

I was going to come back and expand re other artillery, but you beat me to it.

What is silent is the role of drones

I'm most definitely not a military expert, but the issue for the Russians is that they thought they would walk in, Ukraine would capitulate within a couple of days, job done. This means the strategy and planning was completely wrong. They ended up with huge numbers of their forces and equipment trapped in that miles long column going nowhere. Their logistics were shit and all of this put them on the back foot.

[quote Hillsmakeyoustrong]@notimagain thanks for explaining about the air defence weapons. So, in your opinion are they being sent to alleviate the public angst around closing the skies or do they fill a real military gap? Where I get confused is if they can't fully defend the cities, won't Russia just bring out the big guns from the outset? I'm so glad I'm not in charge of military strategy. It looks like a game of chess where there's only one winner and the only thing that can be influenced is how long the chess game lasts?[/quote]
I have to say with my cynics hat on I’d have to say suspect there’s an element of spin in the Starstreak announcement but since it could also genuinely potentially fills a gap I can see the logic in deploying it.

It won’t be of any direct immediate help in the bombardment by artillery and rocket of cities.

Shredded I agree with you

It’s still terrible but proximity doesn’t mean things have changed wrt risk of escalation

The fighters being brought in, mercenaries, etc. act for reward. There are bounties on the heads of certain individuals and going to Ukraine will have been made worth their while

What do you think the chances are of the mercenaries of any ilk actually getting paid ? Wagner lot, probably, Syrians, not so sure ? Will they be expecting payment in Dollars or Rubles ?

Trump threatened to destroy Iran with Nuclear Weapons several times. He even said I will destroy your ancient cultural sites. These are words of evil madmen witb deranged egos but they don't really have the power to carry it out even though they personally would. It didn't stop people feeling terrified.
Nuclear War means everyone dies.

Thank you to those who answered and clarified the border missile incident. Ironically, I think a few days away from the news has made me feel worse when I looked at it today. It was very hard to discern important details and risk assess and not be completely overwhelmed by so many headlines - all sounding so grim.
I do appreciate this thread as I feel it gives me a calmer, factual perspective. Thanks folks

@mpsw

Yes *@GallopingHighRoad* - I was referring to mortar shellfire.

I was going to come back and expand re other artillery, but you beat me to it.

What is silent is the role of drones

Yes, Russian drones are a missing link in the information set here. There is not much evidence of Russian drone capability. It is an unknown. The best bet is it is weaker than we think - continuing with the form.

Or gold or cryptocurrency? Or payment in property or influence back home? I said "reward" for a reason when I posted.

mobile.twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1502921610445180929i

Ukraine: Russia army kidnaps mayor of Dniprorudne in East #Ukraine, 2nd mayor to be kidnapped after Melitopol Mayor

another mayor has reportedly been kidnapped

I saw something about Turkish drones the other day, probably on this thread. Does anyone have any further info on this?

@WeAreTheHeroes
Ukraine has allegedly been supplied with Turkish drones for observation and loitering before hitting tanks.

Thanks Galloping - I found this article www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/3/11/turkey-drones-use-ukraine on the subject.