Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

@WeAreTheHeroes

I'm most definitely not a military expert, but the issue for the Russians is that they thought they would walk in, Ukraine would capitulate within a couple of days, job done. This means the strategy and planning was completely wrong. They ended up with huge numbers of their forces and equipment trapped in that miles long column going nowhere. Their logistics were shit and all of this put them on the back foot.

Sounds like a spot on military analysis to me of what happened and we we are now.

The problem now is where do we go from here - what does Putin / Russia do now that it is clear he has made a massive miscalculation, that Ukraine is putting up a much fiercer defence and this war is proving to be much more costly in lives and in time

Basically there are three options:

1. Back down and withdraw/ this will not happen as it will cost Putin his life. Any replacement of Putin can also not do this for the same reason.

2. Negotiate a peace deal - being the innocent party here and so long as they are being supplied with NATO weaponry and are doing well I see no
   reason why the Ukrainians would be willing concede any territory.

3. Putin chooses to escalate the conflict such as through indiscriminate shelling or bombing of cities or using chemical weapons. And / Or spread the conflict through attacks on NATO weapons depots or supply trucks.

@notimagain

Well of course anyone anywhere could claim anything couldn't they?
I mean, who are you? You seem to position yourself as a bit of a plane expert and I'd say from your posts you know a fair bit?

But you could be anyone in the mumsnetters sphere.

My starteakers information has come from will crabtree / Germany/British military surgeon.

No one has claimed they will go so far as to end military ops!

But they seem to certainly be a very good piece of kit to help with the air issue.

As an aside I've always enjoyed your posts but it starts to get off putting When people start to reply in a patronising way.

@MarshaBradyo

Shredded I agree with you

It’s still terrible but proximity doesn’t mean things have changed wrt risk of escalation

I think the risk of accidental escalation have increased a bit as military action moves closer to the border, but I also think overall that direct conflict is a red line for both sides. I really don't think that Russia deliberately firing a missile into Poland is a likely scenario, and I'm sure that there must be a plan for how to respond if something went across the border by accident that doesn't involve just going all in.

I'm just an observer and obviously don't have any special insight, but my instinct is that Russia doesn't want to take NATO on. I wouldn't be surprised if part of Putin's plan was to start with Ukraine and then push on, but the landscape has changed significantly. He's been faced with a much more united NATO and a united west than he thought he would be. Russia's economy has been hobbled and the military isn't as competent as he thought it was. He's facing a completely different reality to the one he thought he had before the invasion.

A few people I know seem to think that Putin's end game is an all-out conflict with NATO. I can see why because he gives the impression of being completely mad. However, he's been threatening dire consequences for any country attempting to intervene, and I would say what we've done so far has definitely been getting involved, although not directly. No consequences have materialised. If he wanted a conflict with NATO, there would be much simpler ways to engineer it.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned, I'm very concerned. But for the people of Ukraine, it's just terrible that our hands are tied like this.

Regarding accidental missile launches, the contrast between Pakistan and India earlier this week was stark.

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60711653

Both are nuclear powers.

Re what Putin will do is hold us at arms length for as long as possible whilst he grinds Ukraine into the ground.

Then we may have to intervene when the country is beyond traumatised by the most brutal disgusting marauding fighters shipped in, chemical weapons area used to get to people hiding in basement's, beautiful buildings area turned to rubble...war crimes go on and there isn't much left.
He will go on and on and on holding the sword of Damocles over our head's.

[quote WeAreTheHeroes]@Alexandra2001 why would you jump to that? There's obviously a middle ground. It is far more likely (I hope) that this is Putin's last hurrah and he's gone too far. There are multiple strands of talks/negotiation we're not being told about. There is a huge amount of intelligence activity. It is not a foregone conclusion that Putin perpetuates this invasion and war to its bitter end.[/quote]
@WeAreTheHeroes

Look at what he did in the past? did he compromise? ease off the gas so to speak?
What did he do in Syria? Chechnya? Crimea? Georgia? he carried on until his work was done.... to suit his aims, Putin shot down a passenger Airliner.

He will prosecute this war to the bitter end & as brave as the Ukrainians are, they cannot stop him, this war is still in its very early stages - 3 weeks is nothing in a campaign such as this.

Remember also, Russia is rich in raw materials, he can manufacture weapons etc forever more, has no qualms at loss of Russian lives & has a police force willing and able to crush dissent.

Of course i hope and pray you are right and i am wrong but history isn't on your side.

@WeAreTheHeroes regardless of the reward and I can't believe I missed out crypto and gold, I do still wonder if full payment is made in advance or is it , here's a bit and you will get the rest if you are still alive and achieve the goal ?
I am thinking more about other nations mercenaries, such as the large number of Syrian ones mentioned previously, would they trust Putin's word about any reward ? What happens in the unlikely event of a regime change in Russia whilst this is ongoing ? Could a new regime refuse to pay up as they didn't 'employ' them ?

@WeAreTheHeroes

They had about 20 Turkish drones before the conflict started, since then they've lost a few but acquired a few more so roughly they've still got about 20.

The drones themselves are pretty decent, not up to US tech levels but a lot cheaper and still very capable.

The drones are slow moving and extremely vulnerable to Russian surface to air missiles. It was for this reason that the 40 mile convoy was largely left alone as it was well protected with SAMs. But drones are very effective at isolated units that don't have SAM cover.

Lastly to operate the drones, the operators either need line of sight which really restricts their use and range or they can operate on satellite links which are very vulnerable to jamming by the Russians. Plus of course they need airfields to operate from which makes them vulnerable.

As useful as they are, drones are not a magic solution.

He didn't face economic sanctions of the breadth and depth imposed recently in those other conflicts. The question is will the other Russians in power be prepared to stomach isolation from the rest of the world for the next however many decades?

@Papertyger tbf @notimagain did say that they understood the deployment of said weapons and that they would fill a gap.

@Wrongkindofovercoat Mercenaries are pirates. All the gold they want is in Ukraine. They will be paid in dollars and what they can loot in Ukraine also. For many, killing is like a drug that needs to be satisfied once in a while. Graphic as it sounds it really is the truth.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong
The information purports to be from Will crabtree military surgeon and followed comments from people whom also seem to be in the army.

Caveat, anyone could be spouting any old crap at any time, even self proclaimed experts on here could in reality be a anyone having fun.

No one said they were a game changer nor will end Russia dominance in the sky.. they said they were a clever pieces of kit , precise and good range and fast.

She said comments made by people with no skin in the game which is often true just like people commenting here.

If this Man however is a military surgeon I'd suggest he has rather a lot of skin in the game.
And being in the military maybe knows his stuff better than some poster's on here , arm chair commentating with no skin at all in the game.

Over 30 have said to have lost their lives now at the NATO training ground.

[quote Wrongkindofovercoat]@Ijsbear

@Wrongkindofovercoat my friend grew up in the GDR and he too says that after reunification the West plundered the old GDR

Strange isn't it, I remeber the rhetoric at the time being about how expensive it would be for West Germany to reunify with the East. Did your friend mention what was plundered ?[/quote]
a lot of the factories and anything of value really. All done by buying the factories and then stripping the useful machinery, shipping it back to West Germany and then the factory workers were out of a job.

Totalitarianism is a horrible form of statehood but so is unbridled capitalism.

Using mercenaries is a true sign that your own people are against what you cannot justify. Putin is finished and it's just a matter of when.
Have people donated to the Ukrainian war effort or refugees? There are several ways you can contribute which might also help you feel less helpless to it all.

The thing I hold tight to, is that Putin WANTS us to fear escalation (be it all-out WW III, or whatever).

If I look back at the news, there's a fairly clear pattern. An escalation, and then a couple of days of plateau, then an escalation, then a couple more days plateau.

The regular grind of escalation is required to keep people scared.

We get used to the plateaus very quickly (humans are more resilient than we expect ourselves to be). So a constant cycle of escalation is the only way to maintain the fear.

In the early stages of this war Putin said that the response to NATO aggression would be 'immediate' this is a lie, it's a lie to make us fear that the worst could happen at any time, and that any escalation could be the last before nuclear holocaust.

If I were a cynic, I'd tell you that even our Western governments proliferate this fear, fear keeps us compliant.

So yes, there is a risk, and yes it IS scary, because it's designed to be scary.

@Papertyger it's good news then which we all want to hear. My questioning of positive developments comes from not trusting 'good news' which seems to be very limited atm.

@Papertyger

Over 30 have said to have lost their lives now at the NATO training ground.

It is NOT a NATO training ground…

[quote GallopingHighRoad]@Wrongkindofovercoat Mercenaries are pirates. All the gold they want is in Ukraine. They will be paid in dollars and what they can loot in Ukraine also. For many, killing is like a drug that needs to be satisfied once in a while. Graphic as it sounds it really is the truth.[/quote]
Got to be remembered that the Mercenaries Putin is threatening to import are used to killing civilians, not able to fight back, they will have a brutal shock when up against the Ukrainians.

They will face the same logistical issues as his regular forces, are themselves ill disciplined and are just as likely to attack Russian forces as Ukrainian.
Putin also has to get them to Russia, not entirely straight forward given the flight bans.

I wonder if this is just another of his threats designed to scare/frighten us all & in response to the numbers of foreign soldiers coming to fight for Ukraine?

@GallopingHighRoad I think people are calling it that because it is used for NATO drills

DP has just suggested that it may not have been the Russians responsible for the strike on the NATO training base as it's suspiciously close to a border with a NATO member. The Russian strategy appears to be to capture the Black Sea coast and the major cities.

"Got to be remembered that the Mercenaries Putin is threatening to import are used to killing civilians, not able to fight back, they will have a brutal shock when up against the Ukrainians."

Excellent point. They will be fighting civilians on the ground. #molotov cocktails #nerves of steel

Worth noting that nothing 'official' has been said re the military base yet. It is all this has not been verified.

Also worth noting that this centre would be a main hub for weapons etc to cross the boarder and be stored and sorted hence it was a likely target

@1forAll74 I don’t think Putin denied the attack on the maternity hospital, they said it was empty and being used as a military staging post. The number of casualties (as reported by the BBC) would suggest they weren’t wrong that it was abandoned and possibly being used as a shelter. That’s not to say it’s ok but just that I don’t think they completely denied the attack.