Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

An accidental-done-a-purpose act would be calculated hostility - if it hadn't been that attack, chances are it would have been another, so we'd have to engage. Genuine accident and it's war that no-one meant to start

How long before we stop supplying Ukrainian forces to avoid "accidents" ?
Once Putin has control of Ukraine, the only way to re supply (large scale) is by air.... and that will not happen for obvious reasons.

Putin can also use Mercenary/unofficial forces to attack any holding areas in NATO countries i.e separatist attacks as used elsewhere.

The problem with giving into Putins many threats is that it becomes addictive to him "How far can i push the 'West?"

Sanctions wont ever stop Putin, he will find a way around these, just as they havn't stopped any country doing as they please..... he'll rebuild his military and be back for more.

The article 5 promises aren't worth the air used to make them.

@Feelingthepinch22

I'm not understanding this war either... How can putin say he's bringing in middle Eastern fighters? Is he promising them a pathway to Europe when the wars over? Why can he do this & bring in fighters yet attack ukranian military supplies they need to defend themselves ...

Putting it very simply: because he can…it really is that simple.

I can't remember where I read it - think it was The Telegraph on Twitter earlier this morning, but apparently Russian intelligence on Ukraine was either sadly lacking and/or the top brass were too scared to tell Putin the truth because he was hell bent on invading.

This longer BBC report by Fergal Keane www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0015qlt
is about the people helping refugees at Lviv station. Towards the end, a Russian born doctor give details of a text exchange with her sister in Russia shortly after the invasion. The sister believed Russian forces were saving Ukraine and didn't want to hear anything different. The doctor told her sister to make like a Russian warship and go fuck herself.

Does anyone think the peace talks with the Israeli PM will come to anything? I know it’s unlikely but I’m trying to keep hold of anything positive.

The fighters being brought in, mercenaries, etc. act for reward. There are bounties on the heads of certain individuals and going to Ukraine will have been made worth their while.

@AgnesWestern

Does anyone think the peace talks with the Israeli PM will come to anything? I know it’s unlikely but I’m trying to keep hold of anything positive.

I’ve heard there has been breakthroughs they were no long putting down ultimatums now they are talking about concrete ways to proceed. That’s the last I heard but it sounds more positive

@AgnesWestern

Does anyone think the peace talks with the Israeli PM will come to anything? I know it’s unlikely but I’m trying to keep hold of anything positive.

We can hope. Reports yesterday from the last talks between Macron, Scholz and Putin were that there was no movement from Putin. I imagine certain concessions have already been offered to him, but they don't match his objectives so he's digging in.

@WeAreTheHeroes

the top brass were too scared to tell Putin the truth because he was hell bent on invading.

That’s widely regarded as almost certainly being one of the factors behind all this.

Frankly IMVHO “top brass” anywhere tend to be a bit cautious about telling their political bosses their armed Forces can’t do something with the assets they have got….

However in the west saying “no” could at worse be career limiting for a very senior officer, OTOH in Moscow I suspect it would more likely be freedom and possibly life limiting.

@mpsw

They mean bombing as in mortar bombs ie shell fire, so yes artillery and I agree that's the type of weapon that is causing the most damage)

Two things to remember about shelling

• they are area missiles - you send them up, and the laws of physics bring them down. Obviously, you target them, but it's only possible to target the area. It's not precise enough to be able to target say a specific building. Unless you are really close and have the type that can fire flat, but that's not whats going on here - no one is looking at a hospital and firing an aimed shot in to it. They are sending them in to the area, and they could hit anything

• heavy mortars have a range up to 9000m /5.5 miles

That’s not totally correct. And there is a distinction between mortar weapons and mainstream artillery.

It is possible to target precisely a building or a vehicle with artillery which can be located several kilometres away. That is unlikely to happen in the attacks on Kyiv and other large cities because you need forward observation posts in line of sight of the target. Those units consist of one or two vehicles, lightly armed, whose task is to bring rounds down quickly and efficiently. You may have heard the term “fire for effect” which is the first round for the observers. In cities like Kyiv, forward observers are going to be exposed even before they can get to positions which are always beyond or on the frontline. Precision strikes against Ukrainian soldiers will not be easy with artillery. Tanks on the other hand (there is a difference between that and self-propelled artillery) are a different matter. They operate within line of sight. Even then, once it has fired a tank is exposed because some of the equipment the Ukrainians have will lock on the tanks position.

There will be nothing precise about the invasion of Kyiv. How quickly it falls will be down to Russian morale.

No reputable news source is analysing Azov’s role in this war. Although many completely unreliable sources do including Breitbart that bastion of credibility.

No news source at all is framing Russia’s indefensible attacks on innocent civilians and an independent sovereign country as a civil war fgs because it is so obviously aggression solely due to Putin’s paranoia and ambition. Even the conflict in 2014/2015 was Ukraine waging a war of self-defence against an international aggressor – the Russian Federation and not a civil war. Every single knowledgable analysis focuses on Putin.

So whilst some might argue that it’s silly to think that people are paid to post disinformation on MN of all places, it is frustrating that these pointless and invidious comments continue to crop up. With 2.5 million displaced and thousands dead and injured, including women and children, all exclusively due to Russian forces attacking Ukraine what is the point of saying ‘but Azov’? This is why the comments come across as a bot or paid shill.

[quote Wrongkindofovercoat]@Ijsbear

@Wrongkindofovercoat my friend grew up in the GDR and he too says that after reunification the West plundered the old GDR

Strange isn't it, I remeber the rhetoric at the time being about how expensive it would be for West Germany to reunify with the East. Did your friend mention what was plundered ?[/quote]
In the case of GDR, post communism an agency called Treuhand was set up to sell off former communist state owned property, factories, residential buildings, forests, land etc.

The problem was that post communism no one in the former GDR had any money to buy this stuff and the accusation (with justification IMO) was that businesses, industries, residential were sold off at knock down prices to usually wealthy west Germans . Workers were laid off, the concept of paying

rents were introduced etc. This caused a lot of ill feelings to the point where the Chairman of Treuhand was assassinated in 1991.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treuhandanstalt

From an anecdotal side some years ago my neighbour to our previous house in Germany, had a massive 8 plus bedroom house with swimming pool, grounds etc that was well maintained but shuttered for 90% of the time, and when they did turn up it was to have a big party for a long weekend and then leave.

This made it all very mysterious in a Gatsby esque kind of way and made me curious as to who my neighbour was and where he was getting his money from.

I found out from my other neighbours a lovely elderly couple that my wealthy neighbour had made a massive amount of money by buying up in East Berlin on the cheap offices, apartment buildings and anything else. And then either redeveloping it and keeping it or simply selling it on to larger developers a few years later at multiples of the original price.

Sky news has the below info, surely there would be nobody from any other county at that base at the current time, seems a prime hit, im surprised they haven’t tried to take it out already
“Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov has said foreign military instructors work on the site in the Lviv region”

@GallopingHighRoad

Leading question possibly..

So in your opinion is it unfortunately the case that unless the west can give the Ukraines some way of directly getting at the Russian artillery/rocket systems (? counter battery/air support) this will continue to be very bloody in the population centers, despite the efforts of those on the ground.

Have to say despite some positive reports of daring do’s on SM I’ve yet to hear any really credible reports that the Ukrainian Air Force has had any significant effect on the ground war.

@Tillsforthrills

"It’s a shame Poland couldn’t give them the fighter jets."

+++

It would have been pointless and would have escalated the conflict. Firstly a lot of Ukrainian air bases have been badly damaged so where would they operate from, secondly the planes would have to be flown into Ukraine from a NATO based which could be seen as an aggressive act. Thirdly the Russians have very effective ant aircraft missiles which would have proved deadly to inexperienced Ukrainian pilots.

I think the conflict would be better served by de escalation and not by sending the n from NATO more high tech weapons.

@1dayatatime thank you for that, very interesting

@1dayatatime So hand over Ukraine to Putin now is what you are saying?
What do you think he will do to the pop. which has dared to oppose him?

De-escalation only works when both sides want it.

Kafka I see you shot down the startresk manpads

The military commentators on twitter were far more hopeful about them and said once they are in play, they wouldn't want to be in Russian fighter plane.

They said they are an amazing piece of kit that will considerably help with the sky issue.

Re wishing we had got things in earlier, we have been getting things in earlier.

Putin has been doing a soil creep war... little by little for decades, taking little chunks here and there and he has never ever been hold to account. He's never been banned from major political gatherings.

We are all culpable.

As for " bots".

Ok Putin has flagged up mum sent as an issue maybe his gymnast mistress with four children stumbled across us one night googling co sleeping.

So f* what?
Ignore the posts? I mostly do?

I've read esp on the others Ukraine threads some really interesting response on the asoz theme, I'm comfortable with where I am on it.
I know more about russian z groups springing up and they are going to be a problem going forward. Now I ignore the posts about it.
At the moment there's are far more pressing matters!

I don't understand the fear of a bot? What do you think they will do?
If posters don't get traction and answers they fade away?
They seem passionate about it so why not start a new thread because it's not really relevant to this one?

It's such a good source of mutual support and gathering of information esp red toothbrush, it's a shame when it all gets dragged side ways into other people's other gripes.

For those wondering about why Putin invaded Ukraine and trying to learn more about the history of the USSR/Empire and the area this
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/was-it-inevitable-a-short-history-of-russias-war-on-ukraine
is a good read .I had very little awareness of Ukraine ,eg how large it was or anything about it's history .
Ukraine was unique on all these fronts. Though it, too, had only existed as an independent state in modern times for a few short years, it had a powerful nationalist movement, a vibrant literary canon, and a strong memory of its independent place in the history of Europe before Peter the Great. It was very large – the second-largest country in Europe after Russia. It was industrialised, being a major producer of coal, steel and helicopter engines, as well as grain and sunflower seeds. It had a highly educated populace. And that populace at the time it became independent in 1991 numbered 52 million – second only to Russia among post-Soviet states. It was strategically located on the Black Sea and on the border with numerous eastern European states and future Nato members

Ukraine was, if not divided, then certainly not immediately recognisable as a unified whole. Because it had so many times been conquered and partitioned, the country’s historical memory itself was fractured. In the words of one historian, “Its different parts had different pasts.” To make things worse, one of the most treasured aspects of the political culture of Ukraine, historically – the legacy of the Cossack hetmanate of the 17th century – was anarchism. The original Cossacks were warriors who had escaped serfdom. Their political system was a radical democracy

And countrygirl's link to is very interesting ,though I think generalises too much about Russian people .
It is a long lecture but *I clicked on the "show more" under fin_topsu and it opened a menu itemising the lecture so that you can choose to select certain topics and not listen to whole thing .Though I mainly did .
*Apologies if this is common knowledge .

Well the opposite of de-ecalation is escalation and who wants that! It doesn't mean you are morally alligning yourself with the aggressor.

@notimagain
Yes, exactly that in short.

With the Russian army having air support they will gradually be able to degrade Ukraine's defences. The equipment coming into Ukraine is highly technical and is mostly air defence and front line anti-armour. This is where the Ukraine army needs most help, but mark my words these arms will dry up within days. The US and other suppliers know it may be impossible shortly to get it to the frontline and then the risks of losing equipment are no longer 'worth taking'. There is an uncomfortable even if accidental logic in creating maximum destruction on the invading army. This goes beyond breaking Russian soldiers' morale. In time, the world will also see maximum destruction of Ukraine. It may be some years away but the evidence base for the UN and the rest of the world of tangible Russian aggression will be plain to see. This is where the war will be won and, unlike Germany post WW2, Russia will not be able to rebuild easily. There will be lots of unemployed people across so many sectors for a generation or two and revolution is likely (in my opinion). I bet this is what some others, particularly in the EU are banking on. The brain drain from Russia and Ukrainian refugees are vital to that rebuild when it comes. Get them out.

I’m feeling horribly stressed this morning there seems to be nothing of any comfort to hang onto in all this. I just feel paralysed with worry, like we’re just waiting for inevitable horrors and escalation until the point of no return. People say this is going to drag on and we’ll have to get used to living with this as a background but it seems to escalate every single day with constant sinister threats from putin. I have never felt so sad and scared. It’s like living in a hostage situation.

When do you think there might be peace?
I can't see how this is sustainable.
The poor families in besieged towns and
Ukraine must be full of western arms that Russia could use.
I can utterly understand Zelensky long term, but short term, should he not concede? Until a regime change in Russia?which would surely come about once sanctions are lifted and the Russian people learn the truth.

Oleksiy Sorokin @mrsorokaa
In occupied Melitopol, Russia bans public gatherings and imposes a curfew starting from 6 p.m.

Prior, Russian troops kidnapped Mayor Ivan Fedoriv for opposing Russia.

ZN UA: Russia imposes curfew, bans weapons and protests in occupied towns.

Breaking the new rules will be "strictly punished" by the "military law enforcement."

The same paper calls for informants.

@Alexandra2001 why would you jump to that? There's obviously a middle ground. It is far more likely (I hope) that this is Putin's last hurrah and he's gone too far. There are multiple strands of talks/negotiation we're not being told about. There is a huge amount of intelligence activity. It is not a foregone conclusion that Putin perpetuates this invasion and war to its bitter end.

@WeAreTheHeroes

The fighters being brought in, mercenaries, etc. act for reward. There are bounties on the heads of certain individuals and going to Ukraine will have been made worth their while.

Plus these people actually like fighting. They are good at it and they enjoy it. I sometimes wonder what has happened to them to make them so wicked.