Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

Mumsnet has millions of unique users and over a billion hits every year, it's one of the most famous social media sites in the UK, stories from it get into the mainstream press practically every day, politicians (especially in the run-up to elections) come on here for webchats, and the feminist board in particular is the source of some grassroots campaigns which are ending up in the legal courts, being debated in the Houses of Parliament, and are having an effect on political campaigning even beyond the UK. This site is a mixture of the completely trivial and the intensely personal, but it's also a source of political organising. There are blue tick people on Twitter who claim that Mumsnet is radicalising British womanhood. We infuriate wankers on a global basis.

Do I think that the Kremlin has a dedicated Mumsnet section in the FSB? No. It's probably one or two bots with multiple sockpuppet accounts who are probably also sockpuppeting across many social media platforms. We're obviously not as important as Facebook or Twitter or Reddit but we're not not important.

Barrage balloons would be useless in modern warfare.

@TokyoSushi

BBC 10pm news is depressing tonight, it seems like the advance on Kyiv is really ramping up, even Lyse Doucet seemed concerned.

Grim stuff.

Institute for the Study of War Daily Analysis (the place the BBC get their maps from)

Whilst advances have been made towards Kyiv, this report is the first thats suggested Ukrainians have forced the Russian to go on the defensive.

There's a fair bit of bad news tonight on the state of play (Lviv has airraid sirens), but there's also a few interesting developments which certainly are more positive too.

The fact that the Russians are now threatening the supply lines from the West sounds like one of growing frustration. They can only do this by air at this stage... There are rumours the Belarusians are about to come in - perhaps to do this - the 5 battalion groups on the border are being rotated. However there is also rumours of mass Belarusian self sabotage of equipment and how they have to go through a swamp to do this.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 12
Mar 12, 2022 - Press ISW
Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounting casualties, and sustained Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. Russian forces made limited advances around Chernihiv and toward Kyiv’s eastern outskirts after pausing for several days. Continued Ukrainian counterattacks and successful operations by Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces continue to threaten Russia’s long line of communication in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces captured unspecified “eastern outskirts” of Mariupol on March 12 and continue to shell the city in a likely effort to force it to capitulate.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv for the second day in a row.
Russian forces resumed limited attacks toward northeastern Kyiv and renewed efforts to fully encircle Chernihiv.
Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in northeastern Ukraine are likely forcing Russia to redeploy forces away from offensive operations toward Kyiv to consolidate its long line of communication.
Russian forces made limited territorial gains in eastern Mariupol and continued to shell the city.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian forces conducted a new advance northeast from Kherson along the western bank of the Dnipro.
The Ukrainian military claimed to have damaged or destroyed 31 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) as of March 11.
The Kremlin likely seeks to deter continuing Western military aid shipments to Ukraine, threatening that Russia will view Western military aid shipments to Ukraine as legitimate military targets on March 12.

@EsmaCannonball Well said. We're not that important, but we are a place that anyone with any sense would want to pay attention to. A long time ago, one of my blogposts got picked up on on here. I had 14,000 direct visits from that in a single day. Anyone underestimating the power of MN, or dismissing us as a yummy mummy clique just doesn't get it.

Long may we continue to infuriate wankers on a daily basis.

Putin is saying that the bombing of the maternity home and hospitals and other places,is all fake.. He must have seen pictures of all the devastion, and people being carried out of the childrens home, and dead bodies in the roads. and the funeral service for those men,in that big church, with all the people crying there.

@1forAll74

Putin is saying that the bombing of the maternity home and hospitals and other places,is all fake.. He must have seen pictures of all the devastion, and people being carried out of the childrens home, and dead bodies in the roads. and the funeral service for those men,in that big church, with all the people crying there.

Putin is gaslighting

@EsmaCannonball

I've just listened to a Lincoln Project (US centre-right, anti-Trumpism) podcast with Lieutenant-Colonel Alexander Vindman, the former Director of European Affairs on the US National Security Council. He believes that he only way for NATO to avoid being dragged into a hot war in the future is to give Ukraine the arms it needs to defend its skies now. He specifically mentions drones for attacking airfields and coastal missiles for attacking the Russian navy. It's gut-wrenching that we didn't provide Ukraine with the support it needed when there was a 40-mile long sitting target approaching Kyiv.

Yes, I agree 100%. Hit back hard, hit first. My concern now is Russian military will know where and when the equipment is coming through and can track it to its final destination. With mercenary groups tracking it, some of this equipment will be in the wrong hands and then sold on.

@strawberriesarenot

Perhaps there are things going on in the west to rescue Ukraine that we will not know about until they happen.

There is substantial intelligence activity now. Also military training from a range of western armies over recent months. The Ukrainians are certainly displaying awesome efficiency and the use of battlefield technology. The forward units of the Russian army had zero preparation, no mandate and poor morale. This will be even more evident in the street fighting when a Russian looks a Ukrainian in the eyes. It’s the mercenary groups and what the Russian warlords have in reserve that will degrade the defences.

This is interesting. It's a Finnish former intelligence officer talking about why russians think the way they do in 2018. It's long, it's a lecture, but there are subtitles for those who don't speak Finnish.

Russians have hit military bases 10 miles from Poland (guardian reporting) this is bloody scary, the Russians are getting closer &, closer to NATO territory & the west are going to need to intervene at some point I feel...

Reading these summaries with interest, Ukraine has said it’s winning the fight but not the war. I admire their tenacity and bravery but worry about the mercenaries being recruited from Syria and other places arriving in Ukraine soon.

It’s a shame Poland couldn’t give them the fighter jets.

Morning,

I just woke up and had a quick look at the news. What’s happening with Iran? Are they involved now too?

I’m going to try and stay off here today and keep my anxiety in check if I can.

@blueshoes

Shuuu I had to google barrage balloons. Impressive looking things.

They would provide cover for low flying aircraft fire but I wonder whether they are any good against artillery in modern warfare. Would they take too long to set up. Will they be seen as NATO providing air cover to Ukraine.

Interesting idea. Wonder if any military types can comment.

Limited to zero defence against modern fighter aircraft.

No use at all against missiles/rockets/ artillery (which is what seems to be doing most of the damage on the ground in/around the major cities, despite the word “bombing” being used a lot ).

@Feelingthepinch22 I just saw that too I really hope they don’t cross the border or it’s going to cause some big problems.

They’re probably bombing military bases so close to the border to avoid them being the recipients of Western weapons. Not because they intend to cross the border. And as a general intimidatory move.

Robert Reich's opinion piece in The Guardian is interesting this morning.
It's about how (he feels that) Ukraine has shown our old 'certainties' were wrong e.g
Nationalism is disappearing.

I’m just hoping they don’t ‘accidentally’ attack Poland as it’s so close.

They mean bombing as in mortar bombs ie shell fire, so yes artillery and I agree that's the type of weapon that is causing the most damage)

Two things to remember about shelling

• they are area missiles - you send them up, and the laws of physics bring them down. Obviously, you target them, but it's only possible to target the area. It's not precise enough to be able to target say a specific building. Unless you are really close and have the type that can fire flat, but that's not whats going on here - no one is looking at a hospital and firing an aimed shot in to it. They are sending them in to the area, and they could hit anything

• heavy mortars have a range up to 9000m /5.5 miles

@AgnesWestern

I’m just hoping they don’t ‘accidentally’ attack Poland as it’s so close.

Frankly I'm hoping that they don't accidentally attack Poland.

Because yes mistakes of that magnitude can happen, and the consequences are unthinkable.

An accidental-done-a-purpose act would be calculated hostility - if it hadn't been that attack, chances are it would have been another, so we'd have to engage. Genuine accident and it's war that no-one meant to start

@Feelingthepinch22

Russians have hit military bases 10 miles from Poland (guardian reporting) this is bloody scary, the Russians are getting closer &, closer to NATO territory & the west are going to need to intervene at some point I feel...

Poland has a land border, so at some stage (if Russia takes the whole country) they'll just be a fence apart.

NATO will not intervene unless there is a chapter 5 issue - an actual attack on a member state.. that has been said loud and clear.

Putin doesn't want to fight NATO, I don't see why it's in his interests to bring them in. All the talk about non-conventional and nuclear options is a reminder to NATO not to creep in to any form of mission.

@Ijsbear

@Wrongkindofovercoat my friend grew up in the GDR and he too says that after reunification the West plundered the old GDR

Strange isn't it, I remeber the rhetoric at the time being about how expensive it would be for West Germany to reunify with the East. Did your friend mention what was plundered ?

@changeyourname11111

They’re probably bombing military bases so close to the border to avoid them being the recipients of Western weapons. Not because they intend to cross the border. And as a general intimidatory move.

That could have come into it, in any event anything anywhere inside the Ukrainian borders will (in Russian eyes) have been a legitimate target from minute one of day one.

As an example airfields in central and western Ukraine that could or did support Air Force operations have been hit by air strikes or missile strikes over the last week, they will probably have attempted much the same against other targets such as radar sites and logistics centers.

With regard to the stated threat to supply convoys, if the Russians intention is attack convoys once the materiel is in Ukraine hands on Ukrainian soil then it’s not “hold the front page news” - attempting to interdict supply columns and routes in time of war well back from the front line is a standard tactic/strategy.

OTOH if the intention is to interdict whilst the munitions are outside the Ukraine then that’s a very different matter…..

It will be no accident the Russian statement on this is deliberately lacking in detail.

I am just not understanding this war at all. I just don’t understand what Putin’s trying to gain? How can the Russian people believe this is a ‘special military operation’ when Putin is saying they are sending in African and Syrian volunteers- brutal, war-hardened men?

A lot of the cities he is attacking are in the East of Ukraine. They have a lot of ethnic Russians living there and Russian speaking Ukrainians. Kiev is the birth place of the Russian nation. Many Russians have Ukrainian relatives, they have the same Orthodox religion. What is he trying to gain by destroying these cities and their hospitals? Surely it’s just going to make Ukrainians more anti Russian? For Christ sake even neutral states like Sweden and Switzerland are supporting Ukraine. I can’t see a way back for Russia so is he just going to destroy this country for the sake of it.

A Ukrainian made a good point on another forum. They feel Putin has brought this all on himself. He annexed Crimea, the most pro-Russian part of Ukraine, then stirred up trouble in the Donbas so those pro-Russian regions tried to break away. What did he expect would happen if he took away the pro-Russian parts? It would leave a stronger, more pro-EU Ukraine.

It's about how (he feels that) Ukraine has shown our old 'certainties' were wrong e.g Nationalism is disappearing

Does he genuinely believe that do you think ? If I had been asked prior to the invasion/war, if I thought Nationalism was on the wane, I would have said no. I think it is one of those things that ebb's and flows, you see it ramping up at certain points and then dissipating. I suppose if you live in a totalitarian regime you have to be Nationalistic, being otherwise is treason ?

I'm not understanding this war either... How can putin say he's bringing in middle Eastern fighters? Is he promising them a pathway to Europe when the wars over? Why can he do this & bring in fighters yet attack ukranian military supplies they need to defend themselves ...