Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

I don't think WW3 is relevant, but this is quite possibly the start of a new cold war, depending on how it goes sanctions just aren't going to be lifted and everything back to normal.

There is also the cost of living crisis that is happening across the world that mean allegencies are being made

Stuff like this isn't going to be forgotten

Proteste Break out in Iraq over shortage of Ukranian Grain

[[https://twitter.com/Nacionaleks/status/1502634558541475842
Video of a huge cost of living protest in Albania]]

Russians who immigrated to #Germany took to the streets to protest against the acceptance of refugees from #Ukraine

So while it isn't WW3 yet in the "Hot" sense, most analysts are suggesting that it is a new cold war already

My neighbour is in the army and is on short notice to move but he doesn't expect he'll have to.
He was due to do a tour of Cyprus in the next couple of months but has been told it'll likely be Poland now.
There's no sense of urgency though.

I feel sick about this whole situation. I don’t know what to do, I can’t cope with this. My family are telling me to stop reading the news, but that doesn’t stop it happening, does it? I keep thinking that we’re all going to die if we get dragged into it and I can’t see a way out. I keep thinking of the awful decisions I might have to make if the worst possible scenario came true.

Speaking of cost of living etc what do people think about our future energy provision?

I heard a bit on R4 re fracking

I haven’t read up on it but I started thinking what proportion of what would make us energy secure

Eg nuclear v renewable v other etc

Unconfirmed reports that 600 marines mutinied near Odessa and refused to follow orders to land.

There was an earlier incident of this which subsequently seemed to have had a degree of truth to it.

Whether this has happened a second time remains to be seen - so far Odessa has been largely unaffected by the war which has been somewhat to the surprise of many.

I think Zelensky saying 500 - 600 soliders have been taken POWs is trying to encourage the idea of refusing orders so theres a fair bit of propaganda on this atm.

There are also unconfirmed reports that the Russians are now trying to stop desertation by making a point of shooting deserters.

Again this may be propaganda but there is masses of evidence suggesting desertation has been widespread, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise if this was happening.

If it is happening to that degree, Russia is really going to struggle to do much more other than fire missiles at Ukrainian targets.

Its worth keeping an eye out to see if a sustained pattern of this continues and whether theres some sort of confirmation that the marine story is true.

I think it does sound like the message is spreading through the ranks of the Russians of the degree of losses they are sustaining though.

@OMGTTC I’m in the same boat. It’s the uncertainty, the waiting, it feels so out of control. I just want to be sure my family will be safe.
I’m becoming obsessive about it all and no
Matter how many breaks I take from the news, it doesn’t make me feel better.

Thanks for the new thread and the articles posted (even though they made for grim reading). I think we need to not give into despair, although it is hard not to.

Poland approves legislation to allow Ukrainians to live and work in country

Earlier we heard from our correspondent Dan Johnson about how Kraków, a city in the south of Poland, is seeing large numbers of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine.

Now Poland has announced that its parliament has approved emergency legislation that allows Ukrainians fleeing the war the right to live and work in the country for 18 months.

The refugees will receive a social security number and have the right to access free healthcare and education, as well as social benefits.

Once registered, they will be allowed to extend their legal status for up to three years.

More than 1.5m people have fled Ukraine for Poland since the start of the war, mostly women and children, though not all of them are thought to have stayed in the country.

Maciek Duszczyk, the vice-rector for research at Warsaw University, estimates about one million refugees remain in Poland, and the rest have already left for other countries.

The bill also entitles Poles who host Ukrainian refugees in their homes Zloty 40 ($9.12/8.36 euros) a day per person in assistance to help pay for the additional costs for a period of up to two months.

The bill will now go to President Andrzej Duda to be signed into law.

@AgnesWestern that’s exactly how I feel. I’ve become obsessed with it and can’t think of anything else. I feel exceptionally selfish because we’re not actually/currently suffering in the awful way people in Ukraine are, but I feel so angry that one man could cause so much devastation. I have a partner and a dog and a little house and just want to live a quiet life, I feel so desperate

Doesnt fracking pollute waterways with methane? I am not well up but would consider pollution concerning. And i simply do not trust this shitshow of a gov with anything that might assist them in making profit/contracts for friends.

Every time I look at this thread I have to take another 2mg of valium.

Was considering trying for another baby before this but won't be now.

[quote AgnesWestern]@OMGTTC I’m in the same boat. It’s the uncertainty, the waiting, it feels so out of control. I just want to be sure my family will be safe.
I’m becoming obsessive about it all and no
Matter how many breaks I take from the news, it doesn’t make me feel better.[/quote]
Do you have anyone to talk to in real life? Your posts concern me, the reassurance seeking is understandable but I do think you need a break. I have a friend in a similar situation and it's hard.

@WeirdArchitecture

Doesnt fracking pollute waterways with methane? I am not well up but would consider pollution concerning. And i simply do not trust this shitshow of a gov with anything that might assist them in making profit/contracts for friends.

I don’t know much but I understand the argument re making U.K. energy secure

I think that’s the term used

Be good to get a feel for what that should look like

@WeirdArchitecture I do have some people to talk to in real life, but it’s hard because everyone thinks I’m being over the top and everything will be fine in the end. My DP is fed up with heating about it.
I’ve got to try and be a good mum to my 3 year old too and it’s very hard.

Is there any hope in the mentions of diplomacy I’ve seen today? That Ukraine are ready to negotiate and that the US/West will do more to help with that side of things? Could we see an agreement that is palatable to both sides that could bring this to a close?

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/russia-ukraine-crimean-tatars-dissent-repression
Russia’s crackdown on Crimean Tatars foreshadows wider repression
Analysts say Russia’s treatment of Crimean Tatars indicates likely tactics towards dissent in newly-seized Ukrainian territories.

That article/essay is terrible to read. It basically says there is no hope for the future, and both our children and the planet are doomed and nothing we can do about it.

It also assumes Putin is immortal.

I look out of the window, and see our friendly neighbours putting up bird boxes, and the crocuses closing for the night, and read a message that my mum made rhubarb crumble and it is as if there are two worlds.

@OMGTTC

Is there any hope in the mentions of diplomacy I’ve seen today? That Ukraine are ready to negotiate and that the US/West will do more to help with that side of things? Could we see an agreement that is palatable to both sides that could bring this to a close?

French are saying Putin still unwilling to back down. And hes been on tv saying if 16000 Africans want to fight for Russian in Ukraine, planes should be sent to get them.

It also assumes Putin is immortal.

Yeah that's what I don't get. Dude is 70 and looks like shit. I'd be shocked if he even had another decade in him.

@strawberriesarenot

That article/essay is terrible to read. It basically says there is no hope for the future, and both our children and the planet are doomed and nothing we can do about it.

It also assumes Putin is immortal.

I look out of the window, and see our friendly neighbours putting up bird boxes, and the crocuses closing for the night, and read a message that my mum made rhubarb crumble and it is as if there are two worlds.

It is very doom laden, BUT it is just one opinion. None of us can know with any certainty what will happen in the weeks and months ahead.

to everyone who is feeling anxious, especially Agnes.

[quote AgnesWestern]@OMGTTC I’m in the same boat. It’s the uncertainty, the waiting, it feels so out of control. I just want to be sure my family will be safe.
I’m becoming obsessive about it all and no
Matter how many breaks I take from the news, it doesn’t make me feel better.[/quote]
Do you have someone you can chat to about this? I think when you're already getting very anxious, it can become a bit of a vicious cycle searching through the news etc for reassurance, but the problem with that is that it also means you're constantly absorbing the scariest, most pessimistic content too. I think this will grind on for some time, so it's a good idea to try and find a way to manage the uncertainty or you're going to feel so burnt out.

As a PP said, I feel like this is becoming more of a Cold War 2 scenario than a WW3 scenario. I don't think Russia wants to take NATO on- I think Putin wants us to back off and let him get on with his absolutely heinous actions in Ukraine, and the only thing he really has up his sleeve is to threaten.

@PlinkPlankFirstManc

It also assumes Putin is immortal.

Yeah that's what I don't get. Dude is 70 and looks like shit. I'd be shocked if he even had another decade in him.

That's something I keep reminding myself too. There are so many unknowns in this and things that could completely change the playing field. Putin could (wishful thinking) just drop dead suddenly. At some point, there will be a Russia without Putin.

[quote AgnesWestern]@WeirdArchitecture I do have some people to talk to in real life, but it’s hard because everyone thinks I’m being over the top and everything will be fine in the end. My DP is fed up with heating about it.
I’ve got to try and be a good mum to my 3 year old too and it’s very hard.[/quote]
I understand, have been there myself in the past. It helps to be aware of it, that's half the battle won. I am sure you are a very good mum!

The problem with a thread like this is we have to make a choice as to whether it is helping us. Because of the nature of the problem, each page refresh will bring different news, so if we are seeking reassurance it will constantly knock us off filter. I also know that it's easier said than done to step away.
I tend to take MN 'holidays' when i get caught in stuff that pulls me in a bad direction. Sometimes the thing we think will help us can make things worse.

I'm a very anxious person myself so this is not a criticism but some people on twitter in particular just spend their whole lives absorbed in one particular issue (covid, brexit), and only speak to other people who are equally anxious, and honestly at times they almost egg each other on.

This situation is frightening (seriously, I'm on diazepam at the moment as I was having panic attacks), but please let's not pretend that anyone, regardless of how much of an expert they claim to be, knows the outcome of this. Unless they are a time traveller, they don't.

@Roussette
Thanks for the link to the Seth Abramson article.
Interesting to read. Maybe best with a gin in your hand.