Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10

[cakeorwine]

That filled up quick

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497950-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-9

If anyone is interested, this blog is trying to verify stats for equipment destroyed or lost by the Russians.

www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Quite worried how Putin will take the plane situation

Oil production and consumption charts www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6

@HeadPain

Quite worried how Putin will take the plane situation

He has had the best part of a week to get his head around it.

@HeadPain

Quite worried how Putin will take the plane situation

He will probably turn off the gas pipe as threatened

Re the planes I would imagine Leaders have very carefully considered the implications. Their red line in terms of a no fly zone would lead you to believe they view this as less likely to escalate.

@AgnesWestern

I’m feeling really anxious again after reading the latest escalation.

I was feeling a bit calmer today. This has kicked it off again for me just before bed.
Really hoping it isn’t going to lead to a nuclear ww3.

It will be fine, I don't think that is going to happen, he's not going to press the button as he knows everyone else has nuclear weapons too, it's a bluff. Get yourself a brew or a glass of wine and watch something cheerful, worrying doesn't help anyone.

I’m hoping it won’t lead to total escalation as the Ukrainians will be flying them, not a member of NATO.

Jonathan Landay @JonathanLanday
Breaking: UN nuclear watchdog says remote data transmission from safeguards monitoring systems installed at Ukraine's Chernobyl site has been lost, looking into status of systems at other locations. (Reuters)

IAEA says it is calling on the forces in effective control of Chernobyl to urgently facilitate the safe rotation of personnel there

IAEA says informed by Ukraine that it was becoming increasingly urgent to rotate some 210 technical staff and guards who have been working at Chernobyl since Russia took control two weeks ago (Reuters)

@RedToothBrush

Staff at the British Embassy in Ukraine haven't been granted refugee status in the UK.

How fucked up is this country?

That's shameful, maybe we should lobby our MPs about this?

Without the empty promise Ukraine could have worked towards entry criteria, without Russia snorting down its neck.

That was kinda my point though... many warned back then (including Russia) that working towards joining would inevitably lead to a civil war, and because of the 1997 treaty binding them together Russia would be "obligated" to intervene. Which is what happened when the Ukrainians started bombing Donbass 8 years ago? Not that any of it justifies Russia's actions, but I just don't see how Ukraine joining then, or now, or in five years would do any good? (Or rather, I'm not sure how them not joining would be sad - if anything it would have just sped all the events up).

Starbucks has said it will pause all business activity in Russia, including shipments and cafe operations.

[quote BigHuff]If anyone is interested, this blog is trying to verify stats for equipment destroyed or lost by the Russians.

www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html[/quote]
Note the US and UK kit.

twitter.com/simpsonanton21/status/1501296706318655493?s=21

Russian forces in Kharkiv have accidentally taken out their own secure communications systems by destroying the 3G towers they depend on, it has been reported

Also really hope Poland don't get shafted here. Fingers crossed everyone keeps their side of the bargain.

I also think the US and Poland must be fairly confident there will be no escalation the planes or they wouldn’t be doing it.

@madroid

Does anyone have any insight on why Zalenskiy was allowed to address the HoC?

It seems strange to me that he should be allowed to ask something again that has been repeatedly refused, ie the no fly zone - in such a public/powerful form as parliament?

What was the objective?

It does not seem to be wise or considerate to allow that appeal to be broadcast to the world if there is no intention of granting it?

Here is the text of his speech. He doesn’t explicitly ask for a no-fly zone. The only reference is to “help make our Ukrainian sky safe”.

Oops link
www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-volodimira-zelenskogo-do-parl-73441

[quote PestorPeston]Oil production and consumption charts www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6[/quote]
Thank you for this link.
I was thinking of a separate thread discussing potential replacement of oil and gas sources.
Unthinkable as it may sound, Syria could ramp up production to cover probably 1% from the Russian 10%. Not unthinkable that sanctions would be lifted here and there. And, collectively, countries such as Nigeria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Angola etc could potentially plug the gap with increased production. Really not ideal at all. As I understand it, Venezuela wouldn't be in a position to help even without sanctions (too much of a mess to organise uptodate distribution). Saudi could easily turn on the tap a bit more.
Basically most countries with reserves that could be accessed, are in very questionable situations in terms of stability, influence and political situations.
I wonder what will happen.
It's a vast topic and I don't have technical knowledge, it's just general knowledge and am happy to stand corrected. Apologies if this has been mentioned already- haven't read the thread since lunchtime but was very interested seeing this link.

@Roundeartheratchriatmas

I also think the US and Poland must be fairly confident there will be no escalation the planes or they wouldn’t be doing it.

This.

Its a gamble, but it is a calculated one.

Hmmm not necessarily a credible source but this just flashed up 'BREAKING: US Under Secretary of State Nuland says Poland's decision to put its Mig-29 fighter jets at disposal of the US was not 'pre-consulted' with Washington'

Interesting thread on Twitter from Faisal Islam suggesting a solution could possible be, Donbas recognised as some sort of independent territory. Independence for Crimea (he's not sure what that means exactly). Ukraine joins the EU but not NATO.

It could work, maybe.

www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-povinna-mati-kolektivnij-dogovir-bezpeki-zi-vsima-s-73433

Thank you for this link.
I was thinking of a separate thread discussing potential replacement of oil and gas sources.
Unthinkable as it may sound, Syria could ramp up production to cover probably 1% from the Russian 10%. Not unthinkable that sanctions would be lifted here and there. And, collectively, countries such as Nigeria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Angola etc could potentially plug the gap with increased production. Really not ideal at all. As I understand it, Venezuela wouldn't be in a position to help even without sanctions (too much of a mess to organise uptodate distribution). Saudi could easily turn on the tap a bit more.
Basically most countries with reserves that could be accessed, are in very questionable situations in terms of stability, influence and political situations.
I wonder what will happen.
It's a vast topic and I don't have technical knowledge, it's just general knowledge and am happy to stand corrected. Apologies if this has been mentioned already- haven't read the thread since lunchtime but was very interested seeing this link.

Couldn't we all just consume a bit less?
How much of a reduction would occur if those who could returned to working from home for example?

@DrBlackbird

What kind of victory does Putin actually want? If Russian forces eventually take Ukraine all that’ll be left is a country full of rubble, a broken economy, and an exodus of skilled peoples. Is he just going to leave this wasteland as his expanded Russia? If so, what will have been the point of this all?

Wondering this also

@BreadInCaptivity

https://twitter.com/simpsonanton21/status/1501296706318655493?s=21

Russian forces in Kharkiv have accidentally taken out their own secure communications systems by destroying the 3G towers they depend on, it has been reported

Oh that is brilliant, what idiots!