@WhatsGoingOn2022 I think this proves my earlier point (re planes), sadly.
On Brexit, just to add:
- the above analysis is hypothetical aof course UK never had the common currency with EU
- whilst EU is more dependent on Russian gas atm, it is cutting it down by 2/3rds by the end of this year. So in theory prices may be hit more in the meantime BUT they are much lower to begin with in comparison to the UK and they haven't risen as heavily post-pandemic due to its strong purchase power in the first place, so the starting position for the UK is worse.
- UK's economy has shrunk as a result of Brexit and had a double whammy with the pandemic. Now it's a triple whammy due to Russia-Ukraine war when it comes to supply prices. If you look at it in the most simplified of ways, the EU has avoided the triple whammy and stays on double. It is far better prepared to continue without UK contributions than UK ever presented to its own citizens.
- EU is not a military alliance unlike NATO, ie it has no joint army and Member States can make use of their army independently of the EU. This is because this is the domain of sovereign EU Member States. Whilst there is some collaboration here and they can't be aggressors towards each other (as the EU was created to strengthen peace and stability in the first place), the principle of territorial sovereignty stands. So from that point of view this is largely irrelevant.
- The UK missed an opportunity to provide the crucial tangible benefit to its own citizens as a result of Brexit that it claimed would happen.
Let me explain. As a result of the hostile environment policy in this country, you've continued to bleed out EU citizens, particularly Polish which was a significant minority, from circa 2013. Why? Because people don't want to feel unwelcome and unwanted. Criticised with no justification when most work very hard and are clear net contributors to your economy. Salaries in home countries rose in the meantime so there was no major benefit in staying in a hostile place. Which is what the Conservatives wanted.
However. They promised you the land of opportunity - the simplified version was the 'Eastern Europeans' (as they weren't accurate enough to even refer to us as citizens of our own individual countries, it was easier to stick to 'that bunch of poor post-Soviet people coming over here and taking our jobs' mislabelling and rhetoric) will go home and leave jobs and millions of houses for all of you to take, Britons will become a richer, a more unified nation and all will be hunky dory.
That was a blatant lie. The housing crisis in tjis country isn't caused by EU migration and never has been. So from that point of view, it was statistically insignificant.
The jobs left by the EU workers who returned to home countries vary between skilled and unskilled. All of them were experienced however. And this is where you've got a problem - UK Gov lied that this would create opportunities for Britons thanks to Brexit because Britons either can't or don't want to take them. I'll give you an example. There have been hundreds of Polish anaesthetists working for the NHS and privately here. Shock horror, we aren't here only to pick your fruit, I know! Many are gone, back to Poland or working in a different EU country that obviously benefitted from them moving away from the UK. You can't expect an average Briton to just take their jobs. It takes years of training and experience. Which, the crux of it, UK Gov never promoted these jobs AND never contributed to fund training for them. Instead you have extremely expensive universities and virtually hardly any support for students. I can keep going with this, as you'll have the same or similar issue of lack of training and/or experience with builders, electricians, tilers, chefs, hospitality sector, nurses, care sector, you name it. People don't just wake up one day with skillset, qualifications or experience required to performed them.
So Britons missed the boat. That had a potential to actually benefit the people of this country. The opinion about your country within the EU nosedives as a result of hostile environment and the knowledge that inevitably Brexit won't benefit you as you were told.
The pandemic hits when Brexit is happening and the shortage of workers crisis gets even worse in the UK because more of those EU citizens who might have stayed decide to move back to home countries for obvious reasons, to be with families. Obviously they won't bring their families here as they couldn't stay here at that point anyway. The triple whammy hits.
So you now have huge gaps. These gaps need to be filled. You have millions of people, skilled and experienced fleeing Ukraine now. Looking for normal life. Looking to work in their own jobs. Looking to rebuild their own country afterwards.
You are going to take years now that you failed to take pre-Brexit and between 2016 referendum and 2021 when it came to force, to prepare yoir own people to cover job shortages. You can't easily cover them now and your economy is taking a blow after blow - meaning everyone here is feeling it.
And then you have the Home Office processing...300 visas for the refugees.
To be clear, my view is that refugees are that, people fleeing war who need help and there is no such thing as net contributions to economy that should be considered frankly. But the point is that somehow, the UK has mastered the art of self-sabotage, firstly not helping its own citizens and misleading them, and secondly not helping people who desperately need help and could actually immensely benefit this country and all living here. You'd rather bring people in from the other side of the world that will also take a while to organise and therefore isn't the answer. It's incomprehensible. And if there's no logic to it then it's usually the case the government(s) has been lobbied and there's a narrow group of important people who benefits from this mess, to simplify this. Not you or I, of course.
So will the UK benefit as a result of Brexit and in the context of this war? In my view, no. Will it be worse here than in the EU? Quite possibly.