Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

@Aristalese

What you said is pro-Russian. In other words, you'd like to see de-escalation, how exactly? Because the way to achieve this is to sacrifice Ukraine and possibly more countries. This is pro-Russian, albeit you dress it up nicely as a willingness to avoid a nuclear conflict. A nuclear conflict isn't in Russia's interest either, it's in nobody's interest, this just shows again that your level of understanding of this conflict is limited

+++

As per my previous comment wars are easy to start and difficult to end Now that the war has started de escalation is difficult but we can at least not escalate with jingoistic posts or calls for no fly zones. De escalation will have to involve painful compromises that somehow address the damage Ukraine has suffered and saving face for Putin (otherwise he will just continue).

My post is not pro Russian and believe me you cannot nicely dress up in any way a wider NATO and Russian war with or without nukes.

A nuclear conflict is a valid prospect. Right now and the longer the conflict continues there is a very real chance of this war spreading to include NATO. The border countries are reinforced with NATO troops and a plausible scenario is Ukrainian forces operating from or fleeing to say Poland (a NATO country) that Russia then attacks or a battlefield mistake such as a middle strike on a NATO warship. This then moves to tactical battlefield nukes before escalating to the full version.

This just shows again that your level of understanding or historical knowledge of how wars can easily escalate is limited.

Huge thanks for starting this thread 👍👍

This just shows again that your level of understanding or historical knowledge of how wars can easily escalate is limited

Well, that's rich. And funny. Only I'm not in a mood for jokes.

You still haven't explained what your way of de-escalating this, apart from a wooly paragraph. Please do? After all, Russia is so very afraid of NATO according to you that setting out a negotiation stance should come to you relatively easy? Please set out a route to de-escalation and peace?

A nuclear conflict isn't something that would end well for anyone, primarily not for Putin. You're way too focused on this threat, which is that, a threat. This is not how this conflict is likely to proceed.

Oh and please...you do not need to explain to me who the NATO members are. But thank you for trying anyway.

Unless and until you revert with a sensible response regarding de-escalation that shows you know what you're talking about, I am not engaging with you further as you are not providing any valid contributions at all.

Thank you, I've found this very informative. (placemarking to catch up as only managed to read half of the thread)

@Aristalese

The conflict in Ukraine could have been avoided with some woolly words about Ukraine not joining NATO for the immediate future etc which would have saved face for Putin.

Again, very poor understanding. Wooly words may have done the trick for a short period of time, until Russia would've found another 'reason' to do what they've set out to do for the best part of the last 20 years.

A few years would have been fine by me, key actors, events and countries change for better or worse in time. Putin would have moved on, the crisis may have instead been China invading Taiwan etc.

Look I am genuinely sorry that your country has been unjustly been invaded by Russia I really am. It's just that I do not want the world to go up in a radioactive mushroom cloud or at the least the conflict to spread and millions to die as a consequence of it.

@1dayatatime I appreciate that you have a viewpoint on this matter but to be entirely frank it is neither one I have time for nor one that I think is based in facts. You have a pro-Kremlin perspective and are entitled to share that in what is a free country and on a free internet here. Thankfully. You would however not be able to share the opposite perspective in Moscow at this time.

That does not mean I need to capitulate to you or roll over when you post misinformation. Quite frankly your analysis of Russia's intentions and perspectives here are not ones that could be taken seriously from an academic point of view, or a political one. They are also not actually shared by the Kremlin, if you analyse their actual motivations rather than their propaganda. This is very possible to do, the information is out there. Much of it has been linked to in this thread.

I do not accept justifications of imperialist, autocratic and supremacist perspectives as somehow valid. I note that you seemingly jump between justifying Putin's actions and then saying you don't but the only way to deal with this is to capitulate.

Russian foreign policy is expansionist, aggressive and has the sense of being wronged of any bully who has been told no. Claiming Russia is doing this out of a fear of being attacked is frankly laughable.

It's also not helpful to go around spouting nuclear threats in a clear attempt to spread the Kremlin message that either accept dictatorship under Putin or prepare to all die. This is not the situation, this is not a serious analysis and it is blatant scaremongering.

And yes I do have a perspective, one that is shaped by a combination of studying this, working in politics with many intimately involved in this, and knowing a wide range of people from the states affected. I have not been shy about this. I do not know a single person who shares your views, but as I have been clear upthread my links are to Belarus, Ukrainians, Poles and Russians (who while having Kremlin links have not drank the Kool-Aid). As well as Middle Eastern people who have been the victims of many of Putin's crimes.

I simply won't stand for Putin apologism, and I make no bones about having a clear stance on that.

[quote WellThatsMeScrewed]@Aristalese I just wanted to say your post about the UKs attitude towards countries such as Ukrainian, Romania, etc was very moving. I’m guilty of using the expression ‘Eastern European’, it’s now banished from my language.

The sad thing is most people I know would do what they could to support women and children in need given half the chance.

I’m with you about shoving the Z symbol where the sun doesn’t shine.[/quote]
I think this is a lovely post. I have benefitted extensively from having an extremely wide range of friends from across Eastern Europe, the histories and cultures are incredibly diverse. The concept of there being some big Eastern European lump is very Stalin more than a reflection of reality!

@workisnotawolf

Thank you so much for answering my questions. There was an equally helpful poster on another thread who has since gone.

I will definitely write to my MP tomorrow. It is such an embarrassment that we are not doing more to take in Ukrainian refugees! Locally, there has been a huge drive to send money and essentials to Ukraine so the will to help from the normal population, at least where I live, is definitely there. Our politicians need to stop justifying Brexit ad infinitum in such an inhumane manner.

Regarding Putin/Russia, should Zelensky (with the backing of foreign supporters) issue an ultimatum if talks are not going anywhere? E.g. Russia to leave by X date, or Y sanctions/no trade/exclusions from all sporting events will continue for X period. At some point, rather than talk, they surely need to be made a concrete offer and if Putin refuses, then the sanctions and pariah state they have brought on themselves. Of course the content would be important.

If Russia loses, would they have to contribute towards the rebuild of the Ukraine?

The Z symbol is almost demonic and definitely reminiscent of the Swastika. Very dark that ordinary Russians are buying into this. Could it be linked to the Znamenny Chant of Eastern Orthodox tradition?

Hi! One thing that I would say about MP contact: the trick is to always put it in your own words, even if you don't know what to say, as it is then counted as genuine rather than as part of a campaign. MPs take real note of the numbers they get, so every little helps to show them it's a topic to be taken seriously.

I think an ultimatum would strategically not be wise as it creates more of an incentive to raise tensions and a more absolutist situation. The great thing in this situation that we have a bit of a natural ultimatum in place anyway, which is the rapid deterioration of the Russian economy. If Bellingcat is correct about today's leak being accurate, Russia believes they have until June until they are (to use the technical term) utterly fucked.

The next level of threat would be for western countries to block all energy imports from Russia. To again be very technical, this would (at least temporarily) screw much of Europe. Germany etc would have huge economic fall out.

An interesting point on ultimatums/red lines is that Russia have repeatedly attempted to lay these down. Eg sanctions are a red line, giving Ukraine arms is a red line, giving them this piece of military is a red line, sharing info is a red line. All have been ignored and walked over. The west is now essentially doing to Putin what he has done for years, which is call their bluff and refuse to kowtow to threats. This is important

On rebuilding of Ukraine: not necessarily, it's a difficult thing. Russia is not actually doing terribly well economically, even before this all started. Ukraine was a richer country. Ukraine also has a significant rebuilding fund now and a lot of good will. I can't give any firm answer here and a lot would depend on the circumstances.

@workisnotawolf

On the Z and the chant: the origin of the Z was a specific group of Russian military vehicles coming into Ukraine. There have been other groupings from different directions with other symbols. The theory I personally find most plausible is that it is Z for West (zapad), as a note of which group of military and where it is going. But as yet unconfirmed.

Yes the way it has been adopted is scary and very cult like.

@WhatsGoingOn2022

Interesting how you perceive and dismiss any counter views, criticism, a genuine desire to stop this conflict spiralling out of control and an urgency to de escalate the situation as "pro Kremlin".

The threat of nuclear conflict is not scare mongering when you consider how close we came to that in the Cuban Middle crisis or in 1983 during Able Archer when the underlying event was a lot less serious than that in Ukraine.

@Aristalese

De escalation could be achieved by an immediate cease fire for a start and talks between NATO and Russia on the future status of Ukraine. I appreciate this may be unpalatable to you and smack of the Tehran Conference but tough times call for tough solutions.

Look I appreciate that you are both incredibly invested in this unfair conflict and don't want to hear any counter views or criticism. But I am in no way pro Kremlin / Russian / Putin, instead I am seriously worried about a repeat of the summer of 1914, a rush to war and events spiralling out of control.

Specifically on the use of the term Nazi on this thread, I do apologise if I have caused confusion on this point. Rereading the thread I have at some times been speaking specifically about neo nazis, general Nazi-like far right groups that may be stalinist/imperialist/Russian nationalist, and at other times about cult-like behaviour akin to Nazi Germany. I was doing so in an attempt to simplify but I can be more clear and perhaps put things in brackets to specify what I mean when.

Eg talking about the Z sign: while I have seen evidence from the last week of actual neo nazis using this, in the main I am speaking about Nazi-Germany like cult behaviour in that context, done by a group that are Russian nationalist. I appreciate that this may not be actually much clearer!

Part of the hope for this thread was to not get bogged down in these kind of distinctions and try to talk about this in an accessible way. I think (or hope) that we can generally agree that these are all deeply unsavoury groups regardless. On a personal level I don't particularly care which of these groupings it is at play, they should all be considered vile in a civilised society.

@annathespanner1

This is so interesting - OP why have the Ukrainians not tried to destroy the stuck convoy outside Kyiv !

Hi!! I answered that I think somewhere upthread but there is a great twitter thread that goes through this in detail by a retired US Department of Defence official. Suffice to say it is a Russian clusterfuck (to use the technical term...) of epic proportions. Basically a massive Russian failure of logistics has resulted in thousands of soldiers and hiding out in the forest without food supplies:

mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499894935209795594

@1dayatatime You sound very afraid and thinking about your own safety. That is your prerogative.

Note that you have fallen a victim of the propaganda regarding the risk of nuclear war, this propaganda originates from the Kremlin. And it clouds your judgement.

You are focused on this conflict escalating in a military sense. Whereas actually if you've read and digested what I've been saying throughout then you'd note there may well be a different way out, which doesn't involve sacrificing Ukraine. I suggest you re-read instead of throwing in more inaccurate comments.

I am not Ukrainian, despite your assumption. Older generations of my family originate from Lviv which has a very strong Polish-Ukrainian history, recent generations from Poland where I was born and brought up. Please spare me your 'sorry' comments as they are rather inappropriate.

Apologies if you covered this
But surely west/Uk/Us are already covertly trying to build a putsch within Russia against Putin?
Presumably the spies/diplomats are trying to find people within to support against Putin?

Oh also I don't have time to go back through the thread to locate it but another one of the 'alleged experts on Russian foreign policy who thinks Putin's actions are legitimate, while simultaneously saying they are not but that what we do to counter it makes it worse' also casually dropped in a claim that as well as being an American plant, Zelensky is actually in hiding in west Ukraine. I can't believe I missed it the first time.

That claim is again not only false but verifiably so, and what you are seeing there lady and gents is intentional pro-Kremlin misinformation tactics at play. Anyway I will try to stay on track.

Interestingly, for anyone looking for a late night rabbit hole, whataboutery was supposedly specifically taught as a Soviet tactic. I've linked to a bit on wikipedia below.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

@Aristalese

Would this be an example of the "Russian propaganda" that I have fallen victim of?

It seems rather plausible to me and you are absolutely right I am shit scared of the situation escalating out of control.

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-has-world-war-three-already-started-some-security-experts-believe-existential-global-conflict-has-begun-12559039 Ukraine invasion: Has World War Three already started? Some security experts believe existential global conflict has begun 

Without wanting to go full authoritarian myself, to avoid this derailing I think it would be useful to agree some common principles going forward. Basically, if we can’t be agreed on the following points then this is not the thread for you:

1: states shouldn’t invade democratic states or get a veto over who their government is. Self determinism is important

2: Putin has no right to dictate how millions of people outside of Russia live their lives, or that they should live under repressive regimes

3: Putin has nukes, so does the west, nobody is therefore able to wholesale dictate to the other

4: we are talking here about the Ukraine situation. I don’t come onto threads about e.g. what the US does in Yemen and spew whatabout e.g. Russia in Syria. If you don’t think the people of Ukraine deserve a discussion about THEM then don’t discuss it.

@Embracelife

Apologies if you covered this But surely west/Uk/Us are already covertly trying to build a putsch within Russia against Putin? Presumably the spies/diplomats are trying to find people within to support against Putin?

Hi @Embracelife!!

It's a difficult one. There will undoubtedly be spies and plants working on the ground to help do this sort of thing, if history tells us anything it's that we'll only find out 50 years later! But it's no doubt incredibly dangerous and hugely risky if they get uncovered. There have been rumours of FSB (ie Kremlin policymakers) leaking the last few weeks, most notably the claims that they tipped of Zelensky about the assassination attempts, and also a twitter thread discussed earlier of a FSB whistleblower on the situation.

I also saw some speculation/possible leaks earlier today that an oligarch had been identified as someone who was plotting against Putin and marked out to be dealt with. How true that is I don't know. These things are naturally very secretive: the phrase I have seen used a lot is slowly and then all of a sudden.

As the communication links have been clamped down upon in Russia, any kind of organising like this is incredibly difficult. Like how do you organise a protest or a riot if you can't share it or discuss it without risking being arrested before it's seen? I have also seen videos from today of the police stopping civilians on the street in Russia and demanding to look through their phone, with people arrested if they refused. So a very dangerous and difficult situation for anyone who tries to organise.

Actually a bonus point on all this that you may like: you may remember a few years ago that a female Russian spy was caught in the US? It was a bit of a media storm for a week or two. She is now back in Russia proudly sporting her Z shirt:

twitter.com/VALERIEinNYT/status/1498355979829891072

Without wishing to engage further on some of the points above, I will make one point about ceasefires that might be a bit of an FAQ for some, and to counterbalance any misinformation.

A cease fire unsurprisingly means basically stopping the war, ceasing fire. Agreeing terms and ending it. In this case we are dealing with an aggressor state invading another. As a democratic government of an independent country Ukraine quite obviously would like a cease fire to include (a) Russia to stop invading/killing them and (b) Russia to respect they are a country.

Anyone therefore who 'thinks there should be a ceasefire' is being disingenuous about what this means. Putin has refused to accept Ukraine's right to their own government, or even in recent days to exist at all as a country. He and Belarus are openly talking about splitting it up between them, forcing the millions of citizens to live under dictators.

So anyone who says 'there should be a ceasefire' should rephrase this to aim it at Putin: something like 'the Kremlin should agree to withdraw from Ukraine and respect its basic rights'.

Telling Ukraine there should be a ceasefire is like telling them that the bully should stop punching them. Well yes they'd like that too! But it's the aggressor who can stop. 'Stop being punched' is hardly helpful.

Or they should be honest about what they are actually saying: they are saying that Ukraine should roll over at this point and accept becoming a part of either a dictatorship or authoritarian state, depending on how Putin divides the country up. For many people, this is a faith worse than death. This means repression of Ukrainian culture, economic suppression, no democracy, removal of health and education, removal of European trade goals, removal of free speech and media, and the end to the comparatively liberal way of life which include e.g. gay clubs and foreign students.

I would also like to address a point slightly upthread about how NATO and Russia should just sit down and carve up Ukraine between them.

The fact that this is being even put forward here says it all about the perspective. This is not the time of Stalin or the British Empire. This is also a democratic country with a strong desire to chart its own course. The idea of NATO and Russia making some agreement over Ukraine's fate is frankly offensive to everyone in Ukraine and exactly the sort of Kremlin think that caused this military disaster.

This is very much what Putin thinks, that he can dictate to Ukraine and decide their future. Oh fine I'll comprise and you can be a country, but I pick your leader, also you can't join the EU, oh and you can't have an army.

To use an analogy that a Kremlin figure used this week (would need to check but I think it was their Foreign Sec): he said Russia have every right to dictate to and control Ukraine, after all if Ireland started speaking Irish what would England do? Which is a pretty hilarious analogy actually. What Russia have done is comparable to England invading Ireland in 2022 and saying no you can't be in the EU, no you can't have an army, also this guy here is your new president and he answers to us.

Would anyone seriously sit here and argue that Ireland should accept that? Or that England and Russia should then have a negotiation between them to decide how to slice it up, and Ireland should just sit by and accept it?

I cannot understand how anyone can put this forward as a legitimate and acceptable viewpoint. That is the Kremlin's viewpoint though: powerful countries have the right to dictate. Smaller countries should take it. It is the classic language of the bully.

Oh apologies a further point on those who might undermine Putin: I said upthread about seeing rumours of someone possibly on the move, I have not read into this put the links are here:

twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500575619381399557

apparently American sources believe Putin thinks Sergey Shoygu is laying the basis for a coup. You would know him as 'deeply unimpressed face at the end of the table when Putin spoke about his invasion'-he became a bit of a meme!

He's the defence minister and a part of Putin's closest circle. This is his wiki: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Shoigu

What I will caution on this though is that it could also be (a) mistaken or (b) intentional rumour to cause internal tension in the Kremlin.

By the way: for anyone specifically interested in the likelihood of the success of a coup against Putin, this has a good summary of how such a thing would work:

mobile.twitter.com/adam_e_casey/status/1500517532280700932

And on logistical issues, why the Russian army has failed so much to progress: Mud has played a major part. Ukraine has taken advantage of this, including by releasing water to make land unpassable for many Russian military vehicles:

mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1500141642472312837

Thank you again for this thread, it is so important.