The Invasion is ongoing...Part 8

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Following on...

I’ve been following this for days but rarely commented. What are the predictions for the end of this? I cannot see Putin accepting defeat. It’s a scary scenario for Ukraine

@Justanotherlurker I can't believe you blamed Corbyn for the current invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
And failed to mention that Boris Johnson gave a peerage to the son of the head of the KGB.

Russia has been trying to influence the west for years. That has been obvious for a very long time. And in spite of that Russian government influence has massively increased in Britain. And it worked. We have instituted very few sanctions in spite of massive public support for Ukraine.

@Justanotherlurker

I don't know why these threads are trying to still relate this current situation to brexit by proxy, Russia has played both sides of the divide for generations, it was known in the 80's that Russian optics on playing the long game on western institutions via left ]and right wing was already happening.

After the election of Trump and the hysteria of Russian collusion Reddit decided to deep dive into some of their subs (with the backing of gov intelligence), it caused a moment of clarity for a millisecond that the subs that had the most russian bots were on the 'left' side of the spectrum that was regularly reaching the front page and was profoundly anti trump/pro clinton etc, it's the same as the UK, in the run up to the Invasion and UK/US lets remember the ex shadow front bench who removed their names from the stop the war list that said this situation was solely down to western/nato aggression (they valued keeping there ministers job well paid job instead of sticking by principles when things got a little awkard), also lets not forget Corybn running a press conference based on 'evidence' of the tories waning to sell of the NHS which was based on a Russian troll. Thats ignoring the subject of Russian interference in support of the SNP

Putin hasn't been emboldened by anything in the UK, it's quite ironic that the most fervent FBPE crowd on here are thinking we are that relevant after the past 5 years spouting how insignificant we are, this is Putin.

The fact that a lot of the ex shadow cabinet had to remove their support on the stop the war statement is why Corbyn is brought up, it's not a case of brushing over one situation and focusing on the other.

Trying to eqaute twitter likes or comments is not a metric to base an assumption on.

Yuri Bezmenov spoke about this. Also in Alexander Dugin's book "Foundations of Geopolitics", which is apparently highly influential in Russian political and military circles, goals for the US state that:

"Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics"

In other words, play all sides.

Dugin did however explicitly advocate that the UK was separated from Europe.

@RedToothBrush

This is MN. Maybe still not banned in Russia (we don't know, its not important enough to be mentioned as being on a banned list). Death threats are definitely not the done thing. Its a passive aggressive dear.

Anyway

Justine Bronk @justine_brOnk
It has now been more than a week since Russia invaded Ukraine. At this stage, early explanations are no longer sufficient and analysts need to ask the big question: Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations
Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?

Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.

And
An initial analysis of the possible reasons for this identified potential Russian difficulties with deconfliction between ground-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, a lack of precision-guided munitions and limited numbers of pilots with the requisite expertise to conduct precise strikes in support of initial ground operations due to low average VKS flying hours. These factors all remain relevant, but are no longer sufficient in themselves to explain the anaemic VKS activity as the ground invasion continues into its second week.

It concludes

While the early VKS failure to establish air superiority could be explained by lack of early warning, coordination capacity and sufficient planning time, the continued pattern of activity suggests a more significant conclusion: that the VKS lacks the institutional capacity to plan, brief and fly complex air operations at scale. There is significant circumstantial evidence to support this, admittedly tentative, explanation.

Thats pretty bold. Its basically saying it doesn't have enough people with the right skills to run the airforce!

Thats nuts.

Is it possible?

They sent in the VDV in by parachute so were sitting ducks. Theyve lots of relatively senior officers, their comms are shite, their guns are worst, some of their vehicles are improvised, they didn't have rations, their wheels failed due to lack of maintenance (one tweet today by Trent Telenko showed an example of tires which could only be in that state if they hadn't been moved in over a year) and they've been forced to canbalise some of their vehicles for parts as they don't have spares.

In that context, that might well be a believeable hypothesis.

Re: the a no fly zone. Why establish one if your enemy aren't flying as much as you thought and you think you can get enough pilots and new equipment?

Whats left in the warehouses?

That is all really interesting. It makes me wonder if Ukraine could actually win this war.

It is absolutely CRAZY that Ukraine is still doing anything in the air. Mind-boggling.

I hope Ukraine do win this War! I worry what the fall out might be if they don’t!

@Booklover3 I think there will be genocide if they don't win. They need to win.

@Greattimestroubledtimes

Putin may even have designs on Berlin says Anne Applebaum…

That bloody lunatic can have designs on Berlin all he likes, it ain't happening, he knows perfectly well that the average Berliner is a belligerent bugger who won't tolerate crap like that - didn't he live here 5 years when in the KGB? Perhaps he misses the Currywurst... Signed, a belligerent Berliner.

No, seriously, if he's going to go anywhere it's the Baltic states (because ex-Soviet) or Finland (because Russian history and not in NATO). And that's bad enough.

Anne Applebaum is drinking Kool aid if she thinks Putin has 'designs on Berlin'. Is she not watching how badly this war is going for the Russians so far?

I can't believe the Russians didn't establish air superiority in the first few days. They are running a pretty incompetent invasion to be honest.

If Putin is reviving historical claims and animosities I wonder how he feels about Japan?

Any other decent live streams of Ukraine that anyones found?

As in cameras.

\@alltheapples

I can't believe you blamed Corbyn for the current invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Please indicate where I did.

People are openly trying to insinuate that brexit, tories winning an election.

If you believe the latter without accepting the former then I don't understand your point.

Its basically saying it doesn't have enough people with the right skills to run the airforce! Thats nuts. Is it possible?

A friend from Poland was talking about this today. I asked where were the Russian fighter jets? He said about 2004 someone was brought in to reform the Russian army. He had started to do so, however, as this guy did not make ‘everyone happy’, he was dismissed. A new general was brought in and he did keep everyone happy i.e. a military rife with corruption, fake accounting, ghost budgets etc meant the Russian military has old gear no longer modernised or maintained.

@DrBlackbird

Is this just what we want to believe though?

[quote dreamingbohemian]John Bolton tells ⁦**@washingtonpost**⁩ Trump was just waiting for 2nd term before pulling out of NATO and destroying the alliance now trying to counter Putin’s war…

Fucking hell
I mean John Bolton is a snake but this is probably true

twitter.com/sbg1/status/1499815016891138054?t=DSFikjvVY3JUmJI1cWDPIw&s=19[/quote]
I've always thought that Trump was a Putin stooge, just another tool (pun intended) to destabilise the West.

I've just been watching The Late Late Show (late night Irish chat show). They had a special programme/fundraiser devoted to the war in the Ukraine. The audience was mostly made up of Ukrainians who live in Ireland. Their agony and strain was palpable as they spoke about family members who are still the Ukraine. One lady said her mother (70 years old) and grandmother (98 years old) are still there. Her grandmother is too old/frail to make the journey to the border.
The grandmother doesn't know what's happening - her daughter has kept the news from her so as not to upset her because she has already lived through WWII. She's a bit confused because her daughter has been drawing the curtains very early in the evening. Another member of the audience (Ukrainian man) has invited two families to live with him - the families are currently on their way to the border. The parents in question haven't told their children the full story of what's happening so as to protect them from the harsh reality. So many lives disrupted and so many families torn apart. I was thinking of Judith Kerr - author of 'When Hitler Stole Pink Rabbit'.

I was wondering about this, about evidence. The Kremlin is saying that all the attacks on civilians are by Ukrainians in Russian uniform, or seized equipment. They are also saying I think that missiles have been sent off target by Ukrainians, and that they can prove it. Does anyone with specialist knowledge know how easy it is to prove anything one way or the other? Thanks

In previous wars the UN have had troops set up in between the different factions monitoring what was happening. They were able to say where and when missiles had been launched.

I don't think it was the safest place to be though and I can't imagine it happening in this situation unless something changes.

Is this just what we want to believe though?

Well, the short answer is that we don’t have the full facts. However, my friend worked in the judicary back home and is highly intelligent and well informed.

If nothing else, id like to believe him.

*judiciary

The Kremlin is saying that all the attacks on civilians are by Ukrainians in Russian uniform, or seized equipment

Whose saying this? As in, who on this thread is saying this?

That's what I meant though - there's a natural human trait to believe what we'd like to believe.