The Invasion is ongoing...Part 8

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Following on...

Putin says Western sanctions are akin to a "declaration of war". On the guardian live blog.

Totally agree with the theory that Putin was planning this years ago with the hope that Trump would still be in office.

@CaveMum I’m not so sure - if Trump being in office was part of the plan then why didn’t Putin carry out the invasion sooner? Also this:

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10579093/Trump-hits-Palm-Beach-course-recorded-telling-John-Daly-Putin-friend.html

Thank God Trump isn’t in power any more as if Putin had invaded Ukraine during his presidency, Trump says he would have dropped a nuclear bomb on Russia and then it really would be WW3. On the other hand, perhaps Trump is right that Putin did take his nuclear threat to Russia seriously and that’s why he waited until now to launch this invasion. I don’t know.

Reuter

Italy seizes oligarchs' villas and yachts in initial sweep reut.rs/3tzm4VR

@RedToothBrush thank you on the “survivor” thing. Agree being born in the aftermath of that still no picnic.

I doubt Yelena Osipova and her mother would have been able to escape Leningrad if that is where they were from. My understanding is that the Soviet Union controlled the towns in which people lived, almost like a giant HR function, even before WW2 - to ensure enough workers were available in various places. So you couldn’t just up and leave, you had to be registered and allowed to move and stuff. And of course very little warning of Nazis advancing due to no free press, so difficult for them to plan ahead. Then, once occupied, the Nazis would not allow them to move either, only on their terms (wanted for slave work, local knowledge or killed etc). That’s my impression anyway, interested if others know more.

On birth certificates, hadn’t occurred to me she wouldn’t have one if born in war time! Good thought.

Interestingly now Guardian is reporting this as “elderly” and “said to have survived”. Independent and HuffPost were the ones who were move equivocal this morning and also gave her age (different ages in each paper).

@ChardonnaysPetDragon thank you for the bit about how she’s an artist. I had missed that.

@nonono1

Totally agree with the theory that Putin was planning this years ago with the hope that Trump would still be in office.

@CaveMum I’m not so sure - if Trump being in office was part of the plan then why didn’t Putin carry out the invasion sooner? Also this:

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10579093/Trump-hits-Palm-Beach-course-recorded-telling-John-Daly-Putin-friend.html

Thank God Trump isn’t in power any more as if Putin had invaded Ukraine during his presidency, Trump says he would have dropped a nuclear bomb on Russia and then it really would be WW3. On the other hand, perhaps Trump is right that Putin did take his nuclear threat to Russia seriously and that’s why he waited until now to launch this invasion. I don’t know.

Yes it’s hard to decipher which way it would have gone

Biden at least is committed to NATO although not as jumpy and unpredictable as Trump

Apologies if this has been posted - looks like they can't evacuate out of Mariupol. The Russians have continued shelling.

@nonono1

Totally agree with the theory that Putin was planning this years ago with the hope that Trump would still be in office.

@CaveMum I’m not so sure - if Trump being in office was part of the plan then why didn’t Putin carry out the invasion sooner? Also this:

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10579093/Trump-hits-Palm-Beach-course-recorded-telling-John-Daly-Putin-friend.html

Thank God Trump isn’t in power any more as if Putin had invaded Ukraine during his presidency, Trump says he would have dropped a nuclear bomb on Russia and then it really would be WW3. On the other hand, perhaps Trump is right that Putin did take his nuclear threat to Russia seriously and that’s why he waited until now to launch this invasion. I don’t know.

I don't presume to know what would have happened either.

But something to add to your point above is that Trump had also - pressurised NATO countries to commit more spending to defence, and pressurised Merkel to cancel Nordstream 2 stating that they'd become a puppet of Russia if it went ahead.

I'm not one for shielding my children away from the news and haven't done (but they are 21 and 18 now so not really an issue) but I'd be more cautious in doing so right now. There will be a lot of young children out there who will have suffered during lockdown, losing family members, struggled with home learning, social opportunities few and far between etc etc. I can certainly see why schools are erring on the side of caution with regards to discussing what's happening in Ukraine. They are little and there is only so much they can take on board. We are coming out of a pandemic and now this, even adults are struggling with this double whammy. Just my opinion though, I'm not a psychologist or educator.

@yoolia I just read this on sky news. And a bit further down saying “Moscow will retaliate in line with Russian interests”

But something to add to your point above is that Trump had also - pressurised NATO countries to commit more spending to defence, and pressurised Merkel to cancel Nordstream 2 stating that they'd become a puppet of Russia if it went ahead.

That’s interesting and counters the general noise re Trump wanting to leave NATO, I looked it up to see if I’d misremembered, he did speak about leaving but seems to have changed his mind

Throwing some musings around this morning, I wonder what would happen if every athlete in the olympics and other individual sporting events opted to identify as Ukrainians? Would the Ukraine national anthem be played for them if they win gold?
Seems a relatively easy way for the world to show solidarity.

Another musing was to hack into Russian media and tell the population that Putin is dead, the war is lost and those now in charge are responsible. Probably against some international law on fair play in war but the Russian government is hardly behaving in accordance.

Why are the Russians violating the ceasefire? Are they trying to force NATO to act?

But something to add to your point above is that Trump had also - pressurised NATO countries to commit more spending to defence

Trump also might have pulled out of NATO if he had been reelected.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/04/bolton-says-trump-might-have-pulled-us-out-nato-if-he-had-been-reelected/

@Natsku

Why are the Russians violating the ceasefire? Are they trying to force NATO to act?

NATO have no obligation to act

That's a rather wonderful idea!

about hacking, I'd be fascinated to have a bird's eye view of what's going on in the hacking world right now.

I’m don’t think Trump ever wanted the US to leave NATO, more he wanted certain countries to pay more into the NATO kitty. Certainly he said Germany shouldn’t be reliant on Nordstream 2 for their supply. On both of these he wasn’t wrong however much people find that uncomfortable.

@DuncinToffee

Yes if I recall correctly he threatened that if NATO countries didn't increase their defence spending then the US would no longer "subsidise it".

As I say, I really don't know what Trump's intentions were. I'm not sure he had any sort of coherent doctrine at all.

But if he was truly an agent of Russia then why would he try to coerce NATO countries to spend more on defence, and pressurise Germany to cancel Nordstream 2.

Re Facebook, My two Moscow region FB friends are still able to post and reply to my FB in U.K.

So clearly not “Shut down?”

Peregrina
(List of MPs who personally received Russian donations.)

I only notice one Labour MPs name on there. Makes Clavinova's Whataboutery about Blair and Brown look a little pathetic. Not to mention that when Blair and Brown were in office the USSR collapse was still recent, but now the Tories have had a decade to clean up the situation. Obviously they decided not to bother.

None of the 'Russian' donors are named in the list (no link) - how do you know if they are pro-Putin or not? The donors have British citizenship as well of course.

As for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown;
2012 - Gordon Brown is paid £120,000 for four-hour forum in Russia...

The speech follows other appearances at high-profile events in Russia by Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson – suggesting that senior figures from the last Labour Government have maintained close links with Russia despite the UK's frosty relations with Moscow.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2157053/Gordon-Brown-paid-120-000-hour-forum-Russia.html

The super-rich who have donated money to Tony Blair's big causes.

www.indy100.com/news/the-superrich-who-have-donated-money-to-tony-blair-s-big-causes-7253731

Anyway - I thought you were a Lib Dem canvasser during election time? How could you forget about the coalition government?

The golden visa programme was introduced in 2008 - to “boost the UK's economy by attracting and retaining the ‘brightest and best’ workers or business people.”

The Secretary of State for Business 2010-2015 was former Liberal Democrat MP Vince Cable (now Sir Vince) - also spotted here;

Sir Vince Cable has provoked outrage by appearing on Alex Salmond’s Kremlin-funded chat show on RT to promote his book.
The interview was shown online on the day President Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vince-cable-anger-at-former-lib-dem-leader-over-rt-interview-rnzv82w2f

Current Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Ed Davey, was also in the coalition cabinet but he was too busy accepting donations from the 'Chinese spy' woman.

@Ijsbear

That's a rather wonderful idea!

about hacking, I'd be fascinated to have a bird's eye view of what's going on in the hacking world right now.

It's open season for Anonymous if their Twitter is to be believed.

Yeahthat But if he was truly an agent of Russia

I really don't think he was an agent of Russia, I think he was/is awed by Putin and easy to corrupt.
Who knows what he would have done if he was reelected.

@Yeahthat
I'm not sure there is much hope of ever decoding Trump's behaviour.
Expecting him to adopt a coherent position on anything much is asking quite a lot, TBH.

We are coming out of a pandemic and now this, even adults are struggling with this double whammy. Just my opinion though, I'm not a psychologist or educator

I agree with this. While it's not for anyone to tell a parent what to tell their own children, I can understand why some parents might want to try to shield their children a little bit. For two years we've been doing to die of covid, and now we're going to die in WW3. It is a bit much!

Putin says Western sanctions are akin to a "declaration of war". On the guardian live blog.

Perhaps referring to this?

French finance minister regrets economic war remarks after Moscow threatens 'real war'.

www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/french-finance-minister-regrets-economic-war-remarks-after-moscow-threatens-real-war/2520087

Keep scraping those barrels Clavinova