The Invasion is ongoing...Part 8

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[quote borntobequiet]Totally agree that Putin was confident that if Trump won a second term he would have strolled into Ukraine with NATO in disarray and all the US right wing media acting as apologists for him. I doubt we’d have seen much action from our government here either - they’ve pretty much been shamed into the little they’ve done.
Putin’s plans have probably evolved over a very long time, since the fall of the USSR, with important assists being cultivated in the West throughout. The Coming Storm, an investigation by Gabriel Gatehouse for the BBC, looks at the origins of the January attack on the Capitol and uncovers much more.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001324r/episodes/downloads[/quote]
This really needs to be broadcast in the US more than the UK.

@Febrier

I am surprised at the "women and children" aspect in this day and age. Why are abled-bodied women permitted to leave but men compelled by law to stay? If you don't have children, could you leave your men behind?

For children's safety obviously, but also because women almost always get raped in war. Read about the rape of Berlin. 100,000 females, including young children and very elderly woman raped and many raped to death. So upsetting that it is barely mentioned these days. Not much has changed.

@Squidinkk

I read that the president of Finland met with Biden and that they are on the same page regarding the current situation, and it may be that Finland could get support from the U.S. even if they weren't in NATO

Not to denigrate the support the US has given to Ukraine but you seem to be suggesting they would do something more if Russia goes for finland next. Why would they, if the fact Ukraine are not NATO is what's tying the US' hands?

Name changer, not a bot😉

It’s not all about NATO. If Russia goes into Finland, the EU can react, thanks to provisions in The Lisbon Treaty. There is an opt out for neutrals (put in after Ireland rejected it for this reason).

eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/mutual_defence.html

MUTUAL DEFENCE CLAUSE

The Treaty of Lisbon strengthens the solidarity between EU countries in dealing with external threats by introducing a mutual defence clause (Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union). This clause provides that if an EU country is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other EU countries have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

This obligation of mutual defence is binding on all EU countries. However, it does not affect the neutrality of certain EU countries and is consistent with the commitments of EU countries which are NATO members.

This provision is supplemented by the solidarity clause (Article 222 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU) which provides that EU countries are obliged to act jointly where an EU country is the victim of a terrorist attack or a natural or man-made disaster.

@Febrier

I am surprised at the "women and children" aspect in this day and age. Why are abled-bodied women permitted to leave but men compelled by law to stay? If you don't have children, could you leave your men behind?

Lots of women were staying to fight in Ukraine, I saw them interviewed on various news channels. They said they were ablebodied and didn't have children.

@Squidinkk

I read that the president of Finland met with Biden and that they are on the same page regarding the current situation, and it may be that Finland could get support from the U.S. even if they weren't in NATO

Not to denigrate the support the US has given to Ukraine but you seem to be suggesting they would do something more if Russia goes for finland next. Why would they, if the fact Ukraine are not NATO is what's tying the US' hands?

Good question. I don't know. I think Finland and the U.S. generally have a good relationship and they are both members of various alliances such as the Enhanced Partnership in Northern Europe, and Finland, Sweden and the U.S. seem to have other agreements to "keep the peace" in Northern Europe. I don't know what that means in practice though, if anything. I would love to be reassured that there would be help should s**t hit the fan but you never know.

@Sunnierdays

I was feeling hopeful two days ago that the Russian people would help stop this war but with the rushed new law going through that anyone speaking out can be imprisoned up to 15 years has certainly put a quash on that !! The news stated that it every member within the committee voted for this law, are they too scared to vote against ?? As scary as it us for us here imagine what it must be like for the Russian people, I have also read that many Russians are not believing this is happening even when their own children have told them ! Certainly brain washed !! Changing subject a little what do you think China will make of this surely they don’t want this to turn nuclear as this will have a massive affect on them too?? I can’t believe I am writing this today, two weeks ago I was worrying about what flooring to put in my hall, it’s unbelievable!!

I think its difficult for us in the west, used to free media to understand living somewhere your whole life that doesn't have that. Its just the way things are. You do what ordered and don't question it, because its not your place to.

Critical thought is the whole premise of freedom really.

If you are a Russian granny who grew up under Stalin, you just got up, went to work, raised kids, had a few friends and were grateful for food and a roof. Its a simple life and existence in a way.

For most people the only reason you would really have to revolt is if you weren't getting food. You might be disgruntled at loss of lifestyle but, especially for older people, thats just the way things are.

You really have to give people, conditioned their whole lives not to question authority, something fundamental to revolt about before they will.

Thats what we don't understand. Our threshold of tolerance is lower because we expect accountability and fairness. In an authoritarian state, you don't.

@AgnesWestern

I know this might be an unpopular opinion, but I don’t think what Zelensky said last night in the press conference was fair. I read that he said: “All the people who die from this day forward will also die because of you’. Because NATO is refusing to implement a no fly zone. I don’t think that’s a fair statement, countries are helping as much as they can do. I know he’s emotional and caught in the moment but he’s not thinking of the bigger picture.

I think it is understandable though. He had no training for this, and has been living in hell for the last 10 or so days, not enough sleep, incredible trauma.

This might turn into a bit of a rant, but I think he has been left to rot, basically. The US has been sending in hundreds of millions of dollars worth of military aid for years and years (a lot of it presumably going on the civil war as an aside) he has been given the expectation of help and it has not been forthcoming. As it couldn't have. I just feel he has been naive but I have every sympathy for him. Sanctions might have made it worse and haven't helped him or his people personally at all. The situation is a total shitshow.

@botharna Thanks! I didn't realise it was part of the Lisbon Treaty. I'm off to Google the defence clause.

Also given there have been a lot of fires, I imagine a lot of smoke will be making getting images difficukt

@HiandWhatsThat

I am also aware that while the Russians are being gaslit our own media is not unbiased and plays to evoke certain sympathies at any given time. Just to emphasise, I am not suggesting I don't believe what we see in the media but I am wary of any media that is overly evocative or emotive and makes us react in a knee-jerk "we HAVE to do something" way. With this in mind, of course the reports about attacks, the taking over of power stations and the desperate exodus of Ukrainian families are accurate and I am appalled that Ukraine is left to fend for itself. We are witnessing the aggressive destruction of a sovereign country and its people and, seemingly, our hand are tied, it's wretched.

I think there is propaganda both sides but not everywhere but another major factor here is how many people really had no idea what was going on over there until the US suddenly said war was imminent a month ago and there is a lot of inaccuracy in reporting. I have heard news commentators on the radio saying that Ukraine was in NATO.

The memoir A Woman in Berlin details the experiences of women there when the Russian army arrived, if anyone is interested.

@RedToothBrush I wanted to link to this Ofcom work on media literacy, which addresses not just online skills/being safe online but also being more savvy consumers of online content. So this definitely is on the agenda.

www.ofcom.org.uk/research-and-data/media-literacy-research

^The central role that media literacy plays online also has implications on people’s wider lives. This includes enabling users to participate in public life, to sustain healthy relationships with others, to access and receive information and to critically form and express opinions.“^

@aweekoldnow It is difficult to believe anything the Russian Government say. They repeatedly denied any intention on invading Ukraine and then invaded Ukraine. They have shut down any independent media and threatened anyone who reports on the war with a prison sentence.

How many Russian ships are off the coast of Ukraine ? Does anyone else think that is why they appear to be doing better in that area ? If they capture the whole strip along the coastline of Ukraine how will that impact the conflict ?
Also do we know how much of the military aid has made it into Ukraine, I know a lot has been promised but how much has actually arrived ?

@RedToothBrush
Good comments. It only makes the resistance by people like Yelena Osipova, elderly Russian lady who survived the siege of Leningrad and was arrested during an anti-war protest, more remarkable.
Not all are unquestioning - thank God.

@Scianel

^The memoir A Woman in Berlin details the experiences of women there when the Russian army arrived, if anyone is interested.^

Very ingested, thank you. Have ordered. And thank you to the other PP who mentioned this up thread.

@cakeorwine

Social media has eroded peoples willingness to read more than a few lines and click bait is more attractive

Absolutely And without going off at a tangent, it's easy to manipulate people and form opinions and reinforce opinions. Echo chambers, just showing negative stories about a group, just filtering your news so you just hear one side, have major opinion formers on your side and you can get people to be passionate about a view and turn a blind eye when people get targetted.

It's what Hitler did back in the 1930s. It's much much easier to do now.

You don't even need bots to do it. You just need enough people in their own echo chambers who aren't that good with critical thinking and to see how they are being manipulated .

You can see the struggle now. For years, we have had people talk about the refugees fleeing war zones and the awful rhetoric towards them. Now we see refugees fleeing war zones and it's blowing some people's minds as they have cognitive dissonance as they simultaneously want to support refugees but have said they don't support refugees fleeing war zones.

The rhetoric has created a negative view towards refugees in parts of the media. Click bait articles, negative headlines, furious commentators.

I always find it amusing when someone does one of these patronising treatise on critical thinking/media manipulation/echo chambers - while being unable to hide that they're very heavily on one side of an issue and can't comprehend that anyone else can legitimately think differently.

So if Putin invaded Finland, the EU could go in and help out but the UK and US couldn't because they are not part of the EU?

@Gingerwarthog

^It only makes the resistance by people like Yelena Osipova, elderly Russian lady who survived the siege of Leningrad and was arrested during an anti-war protest, more remarkable.^

Couldn’t agree more. I’ve been thinking about the siege of Leningrad. How truly awful and harrowing it was, how many Russian people starved, their spirit through it all. And how Putin will have very likely had family who survived it. Plenty will have been. said about it through his school years (the Soviet school textbooks are quite interesting!). And yet the very same man is doing this to others. And others he claims are his neighbours/part of his nation/fellow Slavs or whatever other rubbish the Kremlin is spouting now. It is astounding.

If you say Russian bot three times, does one then pop up?

@ClaudineClare I might be wrong but I thinking you need to click your heels together at the same time, otherwise the magic won't work

Sunnier days.

Maybe it's safer to deny it . maybe they shut their Dc down because they don't want them bandying it about and ending up in jail for 15 years!!

If I was in Russia I'm not sure what I would be encouraging my DC to say to stay out of prison.

Re honouring ceasefire apparently civilians have been shelled in mariapol

Pester what does the EU go in with though?

@ClaudineClare

If you say Russian bot three times, does one then pop up?

Depends whether or not they have opted out of the working hours directive.

Sky News are reporting that over 66,000 Ukrainian nationals have returned from abroad back to Ukraine to sign up and fight and defend their country.

@RedToothBrush yes you explained that very well, we in the west have had a very free life and are looking at this situation from a western viewpoint.