The Invasion Has Stalled

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So here we go. Four days in and the third consecutive thread on the conflict in Ukraine. The last two threads are a credit to the members of mumsnet. Who knows where thread four may find our world?

Thank you all.

Thread two : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4491025-The-Invasion-Continues

The Wagner thing is indeed scary. At the same time, Wagner are a bit overrated. Good at killing lots of defenceless people and backing up other forces. Not sure how good they are at infiltration and assassination. They are not like Cold-War style KGB.

I think also in a way the Russians have missed their chance. If they had been able to take out Zelensky in the first day or two, before he became a national hero and convinced all of Europe to help them, this might have made a difference. But if they kill him now he will become a martyr and both Ukrainians and Europeans will just be even more determined to fight back.

I don't see that Truss said anything that wasn't true and wasn't already known to everyone involved.

Diplomats still have ways of saying this without managing to give a way to escalate a volitile situation.

She has to be mindful of the concept of multiple audiences - not just the domestic one. If she's giving propaganda gifts to Putin like this she needs to stfu.

She needs to actually do her job properly.

No I disagree. She didn’t escalate with those comments, it’s the situation.

What was the difference between Iraq I and Iraq II?

Iraq II was needed to distract from the Saudi involvement in 9/11.

I found this thread on where do the oligarchs go from here in terms of siding with Putin or side lining Putin, an interesting read

twitter.com/ggatehouse/status/1498270828844273669

@MarshaBradyo

No I disagree. She didn’t escalate with those comments, it’s the situation.

Well, she clearly gave the Russians an excuse, which we don't need to do, the provisions of art 5 are very clearly to all, have been stated many times and wouldn't be enacted if Moldova was attacked.

I agree with RTB, we need to consider that with people like putin, words have consequence.

@dreamingbohemian

She's basically saying one toe over the border and NATO is coming for you.

Well yes, that's how NATO works. Putin knows this. It's hardly escalatory especially as all sorts of people in Europe have been saying this lately.

It is escalatory.

Putin's pretext for war was saying that Russia were responding to, and at threat from, a perceived risk from NATO.

He basically said that NATO was being aggressive. Then she used a tone which was harsh and aligned with this sense of confrontation.

Diplomacy is the art of saying this but using language that allows the enemy to back down without loss of face.

Everytime you try and be confrontational with Putin he will want to show he is strong not weak against that.

You want to get your point about red lines across but also be mindful of the concept of giving Putin as exit strategy in the eyes of his own people.

She's an absolute tool for having walked into this trap. Of course it will inflame things

twitter.com/ggatehouse/status/1498270828844273669?s=21

Interesting thread from International Editor from Newsnight about what might be going behind the scenes for the oligarchs and how dangerous it would be for them to try to instigate a move against Putin.

@MarshaBradyo

No I disagree. She didn’t escalate with those comments, it’s the situation.

You can say the same thing in many different ways. Tone matters.

You are wrong.

She gave room for misinterpretation. Diplomats are away of this.

The foreign office and defence office will be having a complete shit fit over it behind the scenes.

Sorry x post with Classica!

I’m with Dreaming we can’t be that soft and dance around the reality of the situation.

He doesn’t get all the aggression and no clear lines.

Anyway we won’t agree, people want softer tones I’m fine with her tone.

She's an absolute tool for having walked into this trap. Of course it will inflame things

Inflame things?
He has threatened NUCLEAR strikes, it is hardly a touch of inflammation. I wanted a nail put up for a picture, and the handyman has detonated the whole street analogy.

It is a total overreaction. A deliberate overreaction to sow friction.

Even with the raised temperature, it was obvious what she was saying, you can go if you want to defend Ukraine - it is in Russia's interest to try and ruin the alliance. He didn't pick her or the UK for no reason, he knew precisely what he was doing....we will see more of this.

She's an absolute tool for having walked into this trap

In a nutshell

@MarshaBradyo

I’m with Dreaming we can’t be that soft and dance around the reality of the situation.

He doesn’t get all the aggression and no clear lines.

Anyway we won’t agree, people want softer tones I’m fine with her tone.

Who said we couldn't be firm? The tone can be strong and indisputable and clear in its message.

The ultimate problem is how it resonanted with what Putin had said to his people.

A previous poster gave a good example about how saying 'in direct conflict with NATO' is the problematic bit because its fits his narrative.

You dont play to his narrative. You avoid the word NATO to start with. You say international consensus and unity. This narrative points out Russian isolation. Putin doesn't want to highlight that to his audience.

@MarshaBradyo

I’m with Dreaming we can’t be that soft and dance around the reality of the situation.

He doesn’t get all the aggression and no clear lines.

Anyway we won’t agree, people want softer tones I’m fine with her tone.

I'm also fine with her tone . She's not scared, nobody will back down to him and he needs to be told. He's picked it up because she is a woman. As far as I can see she has been honest and said nothing others have not. If it wasn't her comment it would've been someone else's, he will look for any excuse in anything.

@Classica - “I found this thread on where do the oligarchs go from here in terms of siding with Putin or side lining Putin.”
Europe is of course more glamorous, traditionally speaking.
However, rich people tend to have options in the long run. There is plenty of money pouring into Dubai and there are plenty of private schools in Asia now, including China. There is plenty of money in Delhi and Mumbai too.
If you have hundreds of millions I guess you might miss the view on lake Como but the value of that house isn’t really going to cost you.

I have worked with the FCO and have some of the brightest minds I have ever met. Folk who can provide reams of briefing for climate negotiations with 4d chess strategies - if country A does this and B does that then this is the route through. They are uber cautious with their words and actions. Internally they despaired at Boris and my understanding they are not much taken with Liz Truss either. She was speaking off-piste at a time when caution should be paramount.

@MarshaBradyo

I’m with Dreaming we can’t be that soft and dance around the reality of the situation.

He doesn’t get all the aggression and no clear lines.

Anyway we won’t agree, people want softer tones I’m fine with her tone.

Yes I'm a bit wary of all the 'softly, softly' advice

This is what we've been trying to do with Putin since 2014, but likely it just encouraged him to think he could invade fully with no repercussions.

I think instead of talking about an off-ramp for Putin we should think about an off-ramp for Russia, because clearly the easiest way to end all this is for the generals or oligarchs to remove him from power, open up proper negotiations, and try to do a major reset in relations.

Truss really needs to read from a script, written by those who have been diplomatically dealing with the Russian situation, with no deviation from her.

She's a liability.

I do think her comments weren't that bad but give Putin an opportunity to divide...and he will. Everything she says will be scrutinised because the UK are easy pickings, not being part of the EU etc.

I think Ben Wallace said last week that putin had gone full on tonto.

Two points about this.

Its a cultural reference that many Russian just wont get. It doesn’t translate well (this is bloody well just as well).

Even then he got roasted for it, but will have got away with it because it doesn't translate well.

Compare to his comments yesterday though we have been very much more muted and toned down.

He clearly has had the roasting Liz Truss will be facing behind closed doors today from very pissed off advisors.

Totally agree with @vera99 .

I don't expect Truss will be long that job, as soon as things calm down, she'll be out.

It's all about words.

Incidentally Jeremy Bowen was v good on R4 today prog, explaining the long build up and missteps by the west that have led to this.

Yes I'm a bit wary of all the 'softly, softly' advice

You want to act tough and talk soft. Putin understands action. They are demonstrations of power. He doesn't think the West will act. Thats what he sees as weakness.

Talking tough, plays to the propaganda he is pushing to his people. Talking tough means he has to respond more to tough action (and which the public dont understand in the same way).

Wars of words aren't helpful. They don't improve situation.

Learn the difference between deeds and hot air. Putin understands them.

Thats a general note about politics in the uk too. Hot air is cheap. The Tories are very good at it. They need to follow it up with action.

Like refugees.

Trust just repeated what military sources said many times earlier.

From 24th February 2022
Speaking to the BBC this morning, Sir Richard Sheriff, former deputy supreme commander of NATO told the BBC: "Absolutely there is a possibility that we as a nation could be at war with Russia, because if Russia puts one bootstep across Nato territory, we are all at war with Russia. Every single one, every single member of the Nato alliance."
www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/how-russias-invasion-ukraine-could-23203257

I'm sure when I was at uni I was writing essays about the pros and cons of NATO expansion - and here we are!! Remember the policy of containment that was so crucial in the Cold War?