The Invasion Has Stalled

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So here we go. Four days in and the third consecutive thread on the conflict in Ukraine. The last two threads are a credit to the members of mumsnet. Who knows where thread four may find our world?

Thank you all.

Thread two : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4491025-The-Invasion-Continues

@Beefcurtains79

Can someone start another thread with just updates on the current situation? I’m finding that really useful and informative, however the constant brexit/boris interjections are making it hard to keep up with the rolling news and facts.

Yes let’s get this one back on track

I see Abramovic has said he is involved in trying to get a peace deal. Taking with a massive pinch of salt of course but hopefully there are a fair few Wealthy and influential Russians applying pressure.

@Igotjelly Yes - it just goes to show the power of the Russian individuals who have made a home in London. Which is why Johnsons’s hands are tied.

I am not a Russian Bot. I am a conflict scholar who has been on these three threads from the beginning, we have been talking about all sorts of things the UN, international law, the global economy, Eastern European history it is not just about military updates.

Maybe go learn how Twitter works if you just want military updates without any annoying political context.

I think there is digression pending the talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegation.

Regarding the humanitarian crisis, some linked to a pathway out of the capital city for civilians. As a matter of international law, will charities be allowed to use the same pathway to bring supplies etc into the cities?

Yeah, Zelensky in the heat of the battle hasn't thought through EU membership but obviously has been hugely grateful to see a robust, speedy and unified EU response to the crisis. Ben Wallace's (who has seen active service rather than cosplay) ministerial takedown of Liz Truss's call to arms was something to behold.

Yes let’s get this one back on track

Get the thread title changed? Or start a new one... no one on here has the right to dictate what others consider relevant or not.

The UK's response on the crisis is of vital interest to us all & if that is being influenced by our links to Russia, then that should be aired, just as Germany/EU and its dependence on Russian energy is.

It will all have a bearing on how the Russians react and their resolve to fight on.

"Regarding the humanitarian crisis, some linked to a pathway out of the capital city for civilians. As a matter of international law, will charities be allowed to use the same pathway to bring supplies etc into the cities?"

This is what I am hoping. I suppose that will be Putin's decision.

Oh I don’t know, it’s kind of more fun just demonsing them and totally ignoring the context which led to this conflict. As tragic as it is, what Russia has done so far militarily is absolutely nothing compared to what the US did in the the opening weeks invasion Iraq,

It is interesting, but the parallels are actually closer, than this is suggesting. After all that war was triggered by Iraq invading Kuwait. For those who don't remember, perhaps have a look at the Wikipedia summary:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Kuwait

The difference is that an alliance, officially under UN auspices, but very much led by the United States, a) went in militarily and pushed Iraq out of Kuwait, and b) then continued into Iraq and got rid of Saddam Hussein.
Whereas nobody is suggesting that a) a western alliance led by the US should go fight for Ukraine (and there would be no way of persuading the UN to authorise it given the Russian veto) and b) even if they did, that the right thing would be to continue into Russia and get rid of Putin.

with 7000+ children killed directly by US forces and bombs in a matter of weeks.

But this, unfortunately, shows where the poster is coming from, which is not history but propaganda. Raising the Gulf War is interesting because it is, in very many ways, a similar scenario, but most of those 7000+ children exist as much as all the other propaganda on RT.

That is not to say there were not significant casualties, but it is important to try and keep it factual. And it also depends on your point of view, whether you consider violence by looters and robbers who are not kept in check by having a legitimate government (even a nasty one). That is, if someone did invade Russia to get rid of Putin, and succeeded, would whatever every Russian then did in the following chaos be their fault or not.
Here is another wikipedia link for anybody interested:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War
Note in particular the IBC table of violent civilian deaths - for which you have to scroll down. A lot of people also (as Wikipedia makes clear) think they have over counted - but you can see from this table that they suggest 3977 in March 2003 and 3438 in April 2003, which is under 7000 even if you assume that every single civilian casualty in the first weeks of the invasion was a child.

So in order to have a real perspective, and consider the extent to which it is similar, it is important that we do also have an accurate grasp of what really happened. Not saying you do not need to read more widely than Wikipedia, but it is important to understand that who is commiting/historically committed the human rights violations, and by how much, is today a part of the propaganda effort and be careful, and it is worrying that a thread that by and large is devoted to carefully checking facts on the current war, is allowing people to slip in statements like the above, which people will subconciously absorb, without challenge.

posh The whole thread, and the same thing has happened on other threads, they become littered with those wishing to stop us discussing the invasion of Ukraine as a derailment tactic to prevent or change the narrative wholesale and focus on partygate for instance.

If you try to set up a new thread for serious posters talking about the war, it will happen again, so it is pointless.

We have seen it over and over again this last week - it has been noticeably worse than usual and often by the same posters that feature. It is not lost on those that post regularly.

There is nothing in international law prohibiting charities from helping the victims of war. On the contrary, non-combatants should not be targeted.

But I would not in a million years trust that safety passage.

A great thread from the redoubtable Carole Cadwalla weaving together Putin's battle's on the road to invasion and why he thought (and now looking like a grave miscalculation) he would triumph.

twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1498056686548013062

I want current news, developments and sources. However, I have no idea how we can talk about this without mentioning our Government, its response, the EU response and what they are doing, everything we talk about needs context.

Current...

President Zelensky: "This is not just Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is the beginning of a war against Europe, against European structures, against democracy, against basic human rights, against a global order of law, rules and peaceful coexistence."

@Wannago you are mixing up two separate wars. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and a UN authorised coalition drove him back. They did not invade Iraq proper to depose Saddam. That happened in 2003 with a non-UN-authorised invasion.

This is absolutely devastating. This needless war needs to stop, now.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10559457/Horrific-reality-Putins-Ukraine-invasion-single-photo.html

We have seen it over and over again this last week - it has been noticeably worse than usual and often by the same posters that feature. It is not lost on those that post regularly

thought we had a truce about all of this? me n you seem to have both done an about turn, with me now wanting more action and you more willing to accept negotiation?

I think every poster wants the same thing, the removal of Putin, an end to Russian aggression, the return of Ukrainians to their country and to rebuild.

I guess the differences is how we see how the wests reliance and Russian influence has and will continue to control events.

I and others see Russian influence on our political system as important factors in UK response, of course not the most critical but worthy of comment.

You can always ignore, the scroll function still works!

Screaming "Reds under the bed" doesn't help anyone.

[quote bluewanda]This is absolutely devastating. This needless war needs to stop, now.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10559457/Horrific-reality-Putins-Ukraine-invasion-single-photo.html[/quote]
Heartbreaking

Sorry I am not contributing just yet, but place marking for now.

How about relevant links with short descriptions re context and leave it there. The problem with the derail comes just as much with a 'fight back' as to the relevance. James O'Brien has no problem with discussing both on his excellent show.

Personally, and it probably won’t be a popular opinion on here, but think both Zelensky and UVDL need to stop for a moment and wait and see what happens with the so called ‘talks’ before making public these type of discussions.

Anyone who wants to do something practical can donate to the Red Cross. They have a Ukraine Crisis appeal at the moment. I've seen several posts on local Facebook groups about lorries of supplies for refugees being driven to Poland and frankly it seems better to support an international charity which has staff and volunteers in place already.

A tweet from Zelensky an hour ago

"I am grateful to Romania for its significant contribution to the defense capabilities of our country. I am grateful to
@KlausIohannis
for supporting Ukraine's membership in the European Union. We feel the political and defense support of our partners."

Your link made me cry blue. Please be aware of that link if anyone is feeling particularly fragile this morning.

No one should be shielded from the reality, but those photos are very very hard to look at

@bluewanda Awful, thank you for posting, we really do need to step up, support he EU countries on the front line, donate to various charities and take in Ukrainians who have escaped this horror.

[quote dreamingbohemian]@Wannago you are mixing up two separate wars. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and a UN authorised coalition drove him back. They did not invade Iraq proper to depose Saddam. That happened in 2003 with a non-UN-authorised invasion.[/quote]
Sorry, you are right, I realise that was misleading.

I was really trying to make parallels to the first Gulf War - ie the one in which Iraq went and invaded Kuwait - as that seemd the correct parallel.

Then, around 15 years later, the US decided to finish off the job. So what I should have said, was if the UN went and kicked Russia out of Kuwait, and then the US (or somebody else) then decided 15 years later to kick Putin out of Russia, because they felt they hadn't finished the job. The UN authorisation (assuming one had one) was just to free Ukraine, not get rid of Putin.

But the casualties that were being discussed was from the second attack, and it doesn't help if people are making exaggerated claims as to casualties.