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The Invasion Has Stalled

999 replies

Damnloginpopup · 27/02/2022 18:07

So here we go. Four days in and the third consecutive thread on the conflict in Ukraine. The last two threads are a credit to the members of mumsnet. Who knows where thread four may find our world?

Thank you all.

Thread two : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4491025-The-Invasion-Continues

OP posts:
Thread gallery
13
DuncinToffee · 28/02/2022 08:46

Well said Zebracat

Useranon1 · 28/02/2022 08:47

@FindingMeno

Can't keep up on it all. Has a run on the banks started yet? ( don't know the time difference)
Yes. BBC reporting long queues to get cash, interest rate has been doubled, and a new low record for exchange rate. They have delayed opening the international stock exchange for a few hours to hope it stabilises a little before then.
Keepyourheadscrewedon · 28/02/2022 08:47

*should

Roussette · 28/02/2022 08:47

Oh yes LaDolceVita Putin's 'peace talks' will be anything but.

It will be unrealistic demands so he can say that Zelensky doesn't want peace

www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-peace-talks-zelenskiy-putin-hague/

An interesting article.

What was interesting at the end was that cyber experts and hackers have taken to their keyboards in defence of Ukraine in an effort to weaken Russia and undermine its military operation.
I had read they'd hacked into Russian TV and brought down the Kremlin website
(disclaimer, no idea how true this is)

Keepyourheadscrewedon · 28/02/2022 08:47

Some markets are actually suspended from the open this morning.

OnlyOpenMouthToChangeFeet · 28/02/2022 08:48

Of the 35 billionaires and ‘enablers’ of Putin on a list drawn up by opposition leader Alexei Navalny, only two have been targeted by Johnson.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/boris-johnson-under-pressure-to-widen-sanctions-on-more-oligarchs-in-london

FatFucker · 28/02/2022 08:48

Seems the financial sanctions are beginning to hit normal Russians.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60550992

Febrier · 28/02/2022 08:50

For anyone interested, all this goes back to 2014, here is Carole Cadwallader explaining it really well. Really worth a read.

twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1498056686548013062

Yes, I agree. She claims that we're 8 years in to the first Great Information War. We just didn't know it.

Newrunner29 · 28/02/2022 08:51

@Zebracat

This thread is clearly going to attract people with an interest in history and politics, people who haven’t taken much interest in international relations before, but who have become gripped by current events, and some people operating on possibly a paid basis by interest groups. I do understand that it can be very hard to hear that stuff which seemed ok is connected to something that isn’t, like if a much loved friend suddenly goes to prison for fraud. However, it is the case that there have been longstanding and credible concerns that world security was threatened by Russian disinformation campaigns which affected the 2016 US Presidential Election and the Brexit Referendum. In addition there have been longstanding concerns that the Conservative Party and Mr Johnson in particular have got too close to individual and powerful Russians with clear links to Putin. This isn’t history, these are still current, and of course they are a concern, and of course it is relevant to this thread. I’m not anti U.K., and I won’t have my legitimate worries about whether this will affect our response, dismissed as some sort of unpatriotic smear.
This 100% well said
BigHuff · 28/02/2022 08:51

@yoolia

Does anyone have any thoughts about the offer the Kremlin are likely to make?

They'll want crimea and the Donbas, and a promise that Ukraine won't join NATO (which they won't get).

Or they'll want Zelenskyy and his government to step aside (which they also won't get).

I mean, they might get it. What is the other option? Years of war?

Zelensky has lots of support from Ukranians now, but will that continue if the war goes on indefinitely? He has to weigh up how best to proceed long term. Agreeing not to join NATO is not the worst price to pay for cessation of conflict. All depends on what he has been promised by the US and EU about the scale and duration of their support.

Keepyourheadscrewedon · 28/02/2022 08:52

Maripol looks very bad this morning can anyone see the footage? God I feel for those people.

MarshaBradyo · 28/02/2022 08:56

I do understand that it can be very hard to hear that stuff which seemed ok is connected to something that isn’t

I know is what some think but as someone who didn’t vote for it I would like the thread for updates: there is another Brexit / Invasion thread running iirc that is a good place for it.

NobodysGonnaKnow · 28/02/2022 08:57

@Keepyourheadscrewedon

Does anyone have any thoughts about the offer the Kremlin are likely to make?

I am going with carving up Ukraine. East goes to Russia - West to Ukraine and an agreement regarding Nato, nuclear and neutrality.

I wondered the same. How do you negotiate with a despot? Surely Russia just puts its demands on the table and you decide if you’re willing to accept them or not. They don’t strike me as a country that’s good at compromises.
NobodysGonnaKnow · 28/02/2022 08:57

As a regime that’s good at compromise, I shouldn’t tar a nation of people alongside their dictator 💐

Rocaille · 28/02/2022 09:00

Russian disinformation campaigns which affected the 2016 US Presidential Election

This is a conspiracy theory which has been debunked.

It was investigated in a huge amount of detail and nothing of substance was found.

But yes, the Conservatives have no business propping up their failing party with money from foreign oligarchs.

NobodysGonnaKnow · 28/02/2022 09:01

Imean, they might get it. What is the other option? Years of war?

Zelensky has lots of support from Ukranians now, but will that continue if the war goes on indefinitely? He has to weigh up how best to proceed long term. Agreeing not to join NATO is not the worst price to pay for cessation of conflict. All depends on what he has been promised by the US and EU about the scale and duration of their support.

I thought it was interesting to hear Ursula von der Leyen claim ownership over the Ukraine. Like it was a prize in a tug of war. As much as I know Ukraine wants to join NATO I think it very much wants to be recognised as an independent country and not a pawn in a game.

Thereisnolight · 28/02/2022 09:02

@Rocaille

this war is actually against NATO, not specific to Ukraine at all.

For what it's worth, this is roughly what I got from Putin's two recent addresses. I've italicised it to show it's not necessarily what I believe, just what I understood Putin to be saying.

Russia's main motive in this conflict is to prevent further militarisation of Ukraine. They must not join NATO or allow foreign military bases & missile sites on Ukrainian soil, as per the Ukrainian constitution and the agreements made with Western powers in the early 1990s, which were the basis on which the Russians withdrew from the territories they occupied post WW2. Putin contrasts the Russian withdrawal with successive waves of NATO aggression, which means the alliance is now at the Russian border. He talks about the millions of lives taken in the Great Patriotic War and says Russian cannot pay such a terrible price again.

Putin says Ukraine's stated ambition to acquire nuclear weapons is unacceptable. Ukraine already has extensive nuclear power infrastructure and old Soviet launchers, so Putin says he cannot delay acting, as they could obtain nuclear capability very quickly.

The second reason he gives is to eradicate the neo-Nazi militias. He frames the intervention as a human rights mission to defend the ethnic Russian minority, who have had their language made illegal and suffered various other insults, including the shelling of the regions where they predominantly live. Putin describes what is happening as a genocide.

This is very interesting and whether he’s right or wrong, his POV should be more freely discussed so we don’t have the ongoing reductive Darth Vader: Bad - Jedi: Good children’s movie narrative. More discussing and listening and mediation, fewer exciting goodies vs baddies banner headlines = fewer deaths and less homelessness and orphaning of children. Obviously mediation has been attempted but could there have more diplomacy I wonder. We have a front of centre hero warrior but where’s the quietly heroic backroom diplomat?
Keepyourheadscrewedon · 28/02/2022 09:04

I genuinely feel these talks, if they are to be believed and are not another Russian decoy, will be the last chance for any serious resolution.

The west have to find a way of helping Ukraine manage Putin out of this disaster, whilst keeping his dignity and offering him a narrative of success to be sold back to his home audience. It must have dawned on them by now this war can not be won, and so an exit is now needed.

If the talks are not successful I am extremely worried how this will end, along the same lines as redbrush.

The only good thing I am taking from this - and it is thin gruel, China must be looking on aghast at how this evolved, and it may not seem so appealing invading other countries now. Had Russia pulled off an easy success as everyone expected, then it may be a different story, but who could honestly go there after this carnage....

Febrier · 28/02/2022 09:07

This is a conspiracy theory which has been debunked.

Do you have a reference, because everything I'm reading is saying that a lot of evidence has been found that Russia did interfere with the US elections.

www.snopes.com/ap/2020/08/18/senate-panel-concludes-russia-interfered-in-2016-us-election/

theconversation.com/fact-check-us-what-is-the-impact-of-russian-interference-in-the-us-presidential-election-146711

Newrunner29 · 28/02/2022 09:08

@Rocaille

Russian disinformation campaigns which affected the 2016 US Presidential Election

This is a conspiracy theory which has been debunked.

It was investigated in a huge amount of detail and nothing of substance was found.

But yes, the Conservatives have no business propping up their failing party with money from foreign oligarchs.

Where is ur source? I don't belive it has been debunked at all.
Wrongkindofovercoat · 28/02/2022 09:09

We have a front of centre hero warrior but where’s the quietly heroic backroom diplomat?

Lets hope Russia has a quietly heroic backroom diplomat too.

Keepyourheadscrewedon · 28/02/2022 09:10

Maybe his first wife will do the honours wrong

ajandjjmum · 28/02/2022 09:10

I thought it was interesting to hear Ursula von der Leyen claim ownership over the Ukraine. Like it was a prize in a tug of war. As much as I know Ukraine wants to join NATO I think it very much wants to be recognised as an independent country and not a pawn in a game.

Maybe having the very clear backing of NATO will give some support to those who are facing the Russians at the moment? It's not so much treating Ukraine as a pawn, but more as a member of the team?

Igotjelly · 28/02/2022 09:15

I would be surprised if China weren’t quietly pressuring Russia to deescalate. They would never publicly but at the end of the day they’re generally pragmatists.

Notonthestairs · 28/02/2022 09:16

"Ukrainian delegation has arrived to the border for peace talks.

The delegation is led by Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and MP David Arakhamia, leader of Zelensky’s party."

twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1498217798371364868?s=21