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The Invasion Has Stalled

999 replies

Damnloginpopup · 27/02/2022 18:07

So here we go. Four days in and the third consecutive thread on the conflict in Ukraine. The last two threads are a credit to the members of mumsnet. Who knows where thread four may find our world?

Thank you all.

Thread two : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4491025-The-Invasion-Continues

OP posts:
Thread gallery
13
Danja2010 · 27/02/2022 23:45

@Wrongkindofovercoat

I'm sure I heard someone say that Russia has built up quite a massive warchest in gold ?
They might have gold but where will they spend it ..cold comfort that !
Justanotherlurker · 27/02/2022 23:51

One thing to consider is the ramifications of the EU saying they will send jets over there, it's one thing the UK(the west) sending anti tank/aircraft munitions weeks ago but the possible escalation of sending aircraft is causing concern for a lot of the 'analysists'

WeAreTheHeroes · 27/02/2022 23:54

@Papyrus

For those tracking on Flightradar24 AFL111 is currently flying over Canada in spite of the ban. Have they been given an exemption do you think?
Being allowed to return to base and possibly full of Russians going home?
StormzyinaTCup · 28/02/2022 00:01

@Justanotherlurker

One thing to consider is the ramifications of the EU saying they will send jets over there, it's one thing the UK(the west) sending anti tank/aircraft munitions weeks ago but the possible escalation of sending aircraft is causing concern for a lot of the 'analysists'
Yes, I did find that rather alarming. It feels like providing actual fighter aircraft may have crossed a rather delicate line.
whataballbag · 28/02/2022 00:03

There's a US Air Force plane lurking over Romania at the minute. Any guesses?

FatFredsFriedEgg · 28/02/2022 00:07

It feels like providing actual fighter aircraft may have crossed a rather delicate line.

Providing a semi-redundant Russian-built fighter to Ukraine is worse than providing them with up-to-date UK-manufactured missile systems?

Damnloginpopup · 28/02/2022 00:11

@2ndMrsdeWinter

I have been following Lyse Doucet’s commentary on Twitter but this thread is also incredibly informative, thanks for starting, op.

Interestingly, this morning my teenager suggested that the social media updates from President Zelensky reminded her of the Katniss propaganda in The Hunger Games. It seems to be a very modern war and watching it all happen in real time is such a bizarre feeling.

It's amazing. The first social media war. Zelensky has nailed it and won the hearts and minds battle. The free world is on Ukraines side.

I have a huge interest in the media of the American war in vietnam, the only war where the media had free rein (well, on the US side) but this usurps that in regards to the power and scope of flowing information.

We are living through huge history in so many ways, right here, right now

OP posts:
FlosCampi · 28/02/2022 00:11

@whataballbag there was a US air force surveillance drone circling at 52 thousand feet last night, super high altitude, for hours over the black sea- is it that?

StormzyinaTCup · 28/02/2022 00:13

Providing a semi-redundant Russian-built fighter to Ukraine is worse than providing them with up-to-date UK-manufactured missile systems?

Yes, I think it is and I would question the timing of announcing it as well.

Chloemol · 28/02/2022 00:14

@whataballbag

There's a US Air Force plane lurking over Romania at the minute. Any guesses?
And another on the Poland/Slovakia border
bimkom · 28/02/2022 00:16

@BigHuff Obviously I do not condone what Putin is doing, and am happy that other countries are doing what they can to support Ukraine's resistance - but I also do not want to see Russia completely without allies/semi-friendly relationships. A Putin who feels he has nothing to lose is probably not something anyone wants.

I don't think there is much of a risk of that. There is Syria and Iran and Cuba and Venezeuela and Mali (and bunch of other places in Africa) and Belarus and Kazakhstan, not to mention a fair amount of support from Pakistan and India and China and probably North Korea. And I am sure there are many other countries that could be added to this list that i can't think of off the top of my head.

OppsUpsSide · 28/02/2022 00:18

It’s a refuelling aircraft I think

ErrolTheDragon · 28/02/2022 00:20

@whataballbag

There's a US Air Force plane lurking over Romania at the minute. Any guesses?
If you mean the Stratotanker flying loops, there's a clue in its name. And another one over Poland. They're not 'lurking', they've got their transponders on, but presumably they're refuelling NATO planes which haven't got theirs on.
TheSillyMastiff · 28/02/2022 00:23

The us air force supertanker is for refuelling drones.

Drones turn of their "responder" when flying in stealth so don't appear on flight radar.

I used to watch them over Syria and Iraq. Sad I know.

HelpMeHiveMind · 28/02/2022 00:23

Have others seen this translation of Putin's speech to the Russians which was posted on another thread? thesaker.is/address-by-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-february-24-2022/

Of course, cannot necessarily trust the translation to be non biased. But it does seem to suggest he's already made his mind up on what actions will be taken, regardless of what steps NATO take to bring them about...and that this war is actually against NATO, not specific to Ukraine at all.

FatFredsFriedEgg · 28/02/2022 00:26

Yes, I think it is

So 1980s fighters, using technology they've already got access to, are more valuable to them than UK missile systems developed in the last 20 years? If you say so.

The timing of the announcement is very obviously deliberate though - why would you 'question' it?

StormzyinaTCup · 28/02/2022 00:34

@FatFredsFriedEgg

Yes, I think it is

So 1980s fighters, using technology they've already got access to, are more valuable to them than UK missile systems developed in the last 20 years? If you say so.

The timing of the announcement is very obviously deliberate though - why would you 'question' it?

If you were Putin and you heard that announcement would you think defence or attack. He is waiting for anything that will give him an excuse to go all out. Arming the Ukrainians with missiles and aid for self defence is one thing but announcing you are giving them fighter jets right now when the situation is so fragile?
FatFredsFriedEgg · 28/02/2022 00:43

You need pilots, airfields and significant support and infrastructure to put an old fighter in the air.

Maybe Putin's ignorant of that though.

WhatTheWhoTheWhatThe · 28/02/2022 00:47

Just marking my place have been catching up on all the threads.

StormzyinaTCup · 28/02/2022 00:50

@FatFredsFriedEgg

You need pilots, airfields and significant support and infrastructure to put an old fighter in the air.

Maybe Putin's ignorant of that though.

The practicalities and whether he is ignorant of that or not doesn't come into it, it's been said that the EU will provide fighter jets and he can spin that whatever way suits him.
LilyRed · 28/02/2022 00:55

@whataballbag

There's a US Air Force plane lurking over Romania at the minute. Any guesses?
Offering In air refuelling, both us and the yanks are doing so over various countries to military aircraft
blueshoes · 28/02/2022 00:55

@FatFredsFriedEgg

You need pilots, airfields and significant support and infrastructure to put an old fighter in the air.

Maybe Putin's ignorant of that though.

Ukraine have only asked for Soviet-built MiG and Sukhoi jet fighters that Ukraine's air force can operate. Hence, I presume the pilots, airfields and support infrastructure are already in place.
LilyRed · 28/02/2022 00:58

sorry, crossed posts! Have been watching them this week and the erm, exercises the RAF and the USAF were taking part in over the UK before this kicked off.

Damnloginpopup · 28/02/2022 00:59

Good headfuck from Ukraine here:
pragativadi.com/ukraines-hotline-for-russian-military-families-flooded-with-calls/

"Hey russian mothers, have we killed your son yet? Is he only wounded? Or tired up somewhere? Call our hotline now..."

OP posts:
Rocaille · 28/02/2022 01:03

this war is actually against NATO, not specific to Ukraine at all.

For what it's worth, this is roughly what I got from Putin's two recent addresses. I've italicised it to show it's not necessarily what I believe, just what I understood Putin to be saying.

Russia's main motive in this conflict is to prevent further militarisation of Ukraine. They must not join NATO or allow foreign military bases & missile sites on Ukrainian soil, as per the Ukrainian constitution and the agreements made with Western powers in the early 1990s, which were the basis on which the Russians withdrew from the territories they occupied post WW2. Putin contrasts the Russian withdrawal with successive waves of NATO aggression, which means the alliance is now at the Russian border. He talks about the millions of lives taken in the Great Patriotic War and says Russian cannot pay such a terrible price again.

Putin says Ukraine's stated ambition to acquire nuclear weapons is unacceptable. Ukraine already has extensive nuclear power infrastructure and old Soviet launchers, so Putin says he cannot delay acting, as they could obtain nuclear capability very quickly.

The second reason he gives is to eradicate the neo-Nazi militias. He frames the intervention as a human rights mission to defend the ethnic Russian minority, who have had their language made illegal and suffered various other insults, including the shelling of the regions where they predominantly live. Putin describes what is happening as a genocide.

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