The Invasion Has Stalled

[Damnloginpopup]

So here we go. Four days in and the third consecutive thread on the conflict in Ukraine. The last two threads are a credit to the members of mumsnet. Who knows where thread four may find our world?

Thank you all.

Thread two : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4491025-The-Invasion-Continues

I presume the pilots, airfields and support infrastructure are already in place.

Obviously. There's nothing at all happening on the ground in Ukraine at the moment and all their airfields are fully operational.

Maybe you're right, but unfortunately I think that you're not. Optimism doesn't defy reality.

If you were Putin and you heard that announcement would you think defence or attack. He is waiting for anything that will give him an excuse to go all out. Arming the Ukrainians with missiles and aid for self defence is one thing but announcing you are giving them fighter jets right now when the situation is so fragile?

With respect, I doubt Putin is as disturbed by the prospect of fighter jets being sent to Ukraine as the decisions to send in heavy duty ground munitions (especially anti tank weaponry) and the economic sanctions that are historically unprecedented.

The situation is beyond fragile and I think short of sending NATO troops into Ukraine there is little more that can inflame the situation further.

well @Damnloginpopup, if Russia is telling it's people it's a friendly take over with no captives and no injuries the people have a right to know.
the average russian probably has no appetite for war and once the young soldiers start dying they too might start an internal rebellion.
it's as good a tactic as telling the world your nukes are ready to go.

walking up in a few more hours to see what their money is worth (less) will be an eye opener for the populace.

@fallfallfall

well *@Damnloginpopup*, if Russia is telling it's people it's a friendly take over with no captives and no injuries the people have a right to know. the average russian probably has no appetite for war and once the young soldiers start dying they too might start an internal rebellion. it's as good a tactic as telling the world your nukes are ready to go.

Yes, and fuelling fear. Proper clever psychological warfare.

@FatFredsFriedEgg

I presume the pilots, airfields and support infrastructure are already in place.

Obviously. There's nothing at all happening on the ground in Ukraine at the moment and all their airfields are fully operational.

Maybe you're right, but unfortunately I think that you're not. Optimism doesn't defy reality.

Ever the optimist!

If Ukraine has been preparing for an attack, they will know they are vulnerable to missiles from Russia against their airfields. Planes parked there would be sitting ducks. So maybe, they park their planes elsewhere (in a friendly country) for when they are truly needed because their planes are greatly outnumbered and will always be vulnerable to Russian missiles. Columns of tanks are vulnerable to air strikes. Are Ukrainian pilots up to dog fights?

I don't read about much activity from fighter jets from Russia over Ukraine airspace. I could be wrong.

Flightradar folks, what is currently going on in Ukraine airspace?

@Rocaille

this war is actually against NATO, not specific to Ukraine at all.

For what it's worth, this is roughly what I got from Putin's two recent addresses. I've italicised it to show it's not necessarily what I believe, just what I understood Putin to be saying.

Russia's main motive in this conflict is to prevent further militarisation of Ukraine. They must not join NATO or allow foreign military bases & missile sites on Ukrainian soil, as per the Ukrainian constitution and the agreements made with Western powers in the early 1990s, which were the basis on which the Russians withdrew from the territories they occupied post WW2. Putin contrasts the Russian withdrawal with successive waves of NATO aggression, which means the alliance is now at the Russian border. He talks about the millions of lives taken in the Great Patriotic War and says Russian cannot pay such a terrible price again.

Putin says Ukraine's stated ambition to acquire nuclear weapons is unacceptable. Ukraine already has extensive nuclear power infrastructure and old Soviet launchers, so Putin says he cannot delay acting, as they could obtain nuclear capability very quickly.

The second reason he gives is to eradicate the neo-Nazi militias. He frames the intervention as a human rights mission to defend the ethnic Russian minority, who have had their language made illegal and suffered various other insults, including the shelling of the regions where they predominantly live. Putin describes what is happening as a genocide.

Well in that light it's been a huge miscalculation.

Already Kosovo has asked for it's request to join NATO accelerated and we've seen Baltic states such as Norway and Finland make some quite extraordinary decisions to sever financial ties with Russia.

Putin has created fear. Just not in the way he anticipated in the sense that he's shifted the balance from "don't poke the bear" to "the bear is going to try and attack you anyway", so you might as well have friends to help fight him off.

God help the people of Ukraine tonight and in the days that follow.

🇺🇦

Flightradar folks, what is currently going on in Ukraine airspace?

It's looking "dead" atm but that's not surprising as military planes will be operating without a transponder to track them.

It does mean nothing is flying in Ukrainian airspace.

Sorry typo - should read "does not".

Thanks BreadinCaptivity. That makes sense.

Looks like Belarus is heading towards having its own nuclear weapons. BBC live updates reports:

A vote in Belarus has cleared the way for the former Soviet state and current Kremlin ally to get nuclear weapons for the first time since the country gained independence in 1990.

A referendum taken on Sunday approved plans for Belarus to adopt a new constitution that takes out its current non-nuclear status.

The move has serious implications for proliferation, and potentially makes Belarus a staging zone for the Russian assault on Ukraine.

@CrunchyCarrot

Looks like Belarus is heading towards having its own nuclear weapons. BBC live updates reports:

A vote in Belarus has cleared the way for the former Soviet state and current Kremlin ally to get nuclear weapons for the first time since the country gained independence in 1990.

A referendum taken on Sunday approved plans for Belarus to adopt a new constitution that takes out its current non-nuclear status.

The move has serious implications for proliferation, and potentially makes Belarus a staging zone for the Russian assault on Ukraine.

The news is picking up on the role of Belarus this is an interesting nugget of info

Well in that light it's been a huge miscalculation.

Already Kosovo has asked for it's request to join NATO accelerated and we've seen Baltic states such as Norway and Finland make some quite extraordinary decisions to sever financial ties with Russia.

I think Russia is prepared to risk all that because, in their eyes, Ukrainian militarisation represents an existential threat. I understand that Ukraine is uniquely significant in terms of Russian security due to it's long land border and the nature of the terrain, which would expedite an invasion. Both Hitler and Napoleon crossed into Russia via Ukraine, I believe. It does appear that it's importance to Russian security is unparalleled, and that's without a potential nuclear threat being added into the mix.

[quote vera99]@MarshaBradyo but's it not anti-UK - your spin. Facts matter 'Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.' And it's a thread on Mumsnet, not a brain's trust on whose weight proclamations the future of Ukraine depends. For the absence of doubt, I stand wholeheartedly with Ukraine but how we got here and who helped to get us there matter. After Litvinenko and Skripal you would have thought we had got the message he is a murderous tyrannical dictator who will stop at nothing. But apparently not forgive me if I don't wave a Union Jack and cheerlead for Londonograd and the millions showered on the Tories by kleptocrats who swam in the blood of their master's body filled sewer.[/quote]
So true.

Putin must have been delighted when England left The EU.
This is a fascinating thread - thank you - I have learned so much.

is lyse doucet on instagram? if so can someone link please.

UN Security Council has voted to hold a General Assembly on Monday to discuss Ukraine
(BBC World Service)

All the stuff from the EU has truly shocked me - I was sure they would let Ukraine go the way of the Crimea.

I'm sitting open mouthed at the idea that Switzerland will freeze Russian assets. They must really believe Russia is a threat to them. Personally. Because I can't see that anything else would have them do this.

Following-nothing to add - just thanks for the very measured and informative posts

We have basically destroyed the Russian economy. He will consider that an act of war. We are royally fucked.

@yoolia

We have basically destroyed the Russian economy. He will consider that an act of war. We are royally fucked.

Or the reverse.

Putin invading a neighbouring democracy was an act of war.

Sanctions against him are a response to that.

What do you think we should do?

Nothing?

Historically, appeasement isn't a great tactic when you are dealing with an ideologist.

Good Morning folks checking in this morning

It looks like Ukraine have held Kyiv over night! This is a mighty mighty achievement. Unthinkable just a few days ago. My heart swells for Ukraine and their determination and courage.

The three mile long columns of approaching artillery is not a brilliant development, but yet again well flagged to the Ukrainian people now. Lets hope they don't run out fuel, run into problems on the way.....

Russian currency has now halved in value, it is an unbelievable drop and now in Russia reported on the markets, that there is a run on the banks. If the banking system collapses in Russia, this will put Putin under immediate enormous pressure. Banking apps seem to have stopped working and this could create, perhaps is likely, to cause panic. No one in Russia will be left thinking this is a 'peacekeeping operation' when they wake up today.

The markets open soon that will be interesting viewing. Putin has said he doesn't care, well lets see about that....he didn't bank on the west actually getting its act together in time after his surprise 'lightening take over' of Ukraine. He miscalculated on both fronts.

yoolia. We have basically destroyed the Russian economy. He will consider that an act of war. We are royally fucked

Putin was warned in advance, and was indifferent so he can hardly be surprised when he discovers that we followed through. The last message in the world you want to give dangerous threatening country with a dictator that appears to have lost all grip of reality, is the idea that they can do anything he likes, even invade and erase another country off the face of the earth and nothing at all will happen.

We have to stand up to them, appeasement really did not work and we are here today because of it. Russia needs to see right now more than ever that this is unacceptable to the rest of the world. You are far less safe now than you were a week ago regardless of where you live, and if Russia is allowed to continue marauding we will end up in another world war situation and we really will be well and truly 'royally fucked' then.

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/27/russia-braced-free-fall-rouble-swift-payment-network/

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60543994

Quick summary for those waking up:

Russia shelled the northern city of Chernihiv all night, Ukraine's State Emergency Service says

Blasts were also heard before dawn in the capital Kyiv, and second city Kharkiv, Ukrainian officials say

President Zelensky says the next 24 hours - the fifth day of the Russian invasion - will be "crucial" for Ukraine

We are behind Ukraine all the way.

*lost all grip ON reality

The Aeroflot flight seen over Canada was violating the ban.

twitter.com/Transport_gc/status/1498130837702914064?s=20&t=LwsN3YtFS6giAQ-2cH1VBg