The Invasion Has Stalled

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So here we go. Four days in and the third consecutive thread on the conflict in Ukraine. The last two threads are a credit to the members of mumsnet. Who knows where thread four may find our world?

Thank you all.

Thread two : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4491025-The-Invasion-Continues

I guess @TheSillyMastiff , I just don't see any of that as having a major impact on Putin's thinking.

@BeyondPurpleTulips For the most part when the Soviet Union broke up, the Russian Federation took the place of the USSR in international institutions. There are all sorts of legal and political reasons but the most cynical explanation would be that Russia was still a superpower by virtue of its nuclear arsenal.

@spleencoffin

Does Putin have a wife? Children?

Yes he does x

@SugarAndSpiceIsNice there was an English bloke on the TV earlier today saying he wasn't allowed over the border because he was above the age of 18 and was told he needed to stay in Ukraine. It is a very difficult situation, if the border guards know the people trying to leave are Indian and believe India is 'supporting' Russia in invading their country and killing their civilians, they might not view them fleeing the same country with much sympathy. Doesn't make their treatment of the Indian students right, but it is a highly emotionally charged situation.

All of this really serves to illustrate how the current set up of Nato, UN Security council is actually pretty limited in curtailing Russia from doing something fucking stupid.

My issue with NATO is that now they're too all-encompassing in Europe. What makes NATO great is also an inerrant weakness.

If Poland wasn't in NATO I can't imagine Putin would have invaded Ukraine so readily. Being in NATO has prevented the natural Polish response.

My own extremely inadequate understanding was that the UN was set up to stop there ever being a ww3 and so I’m a bit surprised to find it toothless here… as you can see I know very little though.

@RJnomore1

My own extremely inadequate understanding was that the UN was set up to stop there ever being a ww3 and so I’m a bit surprised to find it toothless here… as you can see I know very little though.

It would be better to say that the UN was set up to prevent another war between the great powers, after WW1 and 2. And some would say it has! In that there hasn't been a direct great power war since.

Personally I think that has more to do with nuclear deterrence but still.

Max Bergmann@maxbergmann
We are witnessing the emergence of a global power in this crisis: the European Union. I was confident that a Russian invasion w/d be a shock to Europe and lead to a robust response. But never w/d I have predicted the announcements from Germany, EU, and others. Truly stunning.

Whilst we have a PM that enobled the son of a KGB officer and Putin apologist and campaigned for Brexit that was intended to destabilise this bloc. Funny old world...

twitter.com/maxbergmann/status/1498006688703598592

But never w/d I have predicted the announcements from Germany, EU, and others. Truly stunning.

Yes. And even Switzerland. Who are famously neutral

[quote Wrongkindofovercoat]@SugarAndSpiceIsNice there was an English bloke on the TV earlier today saying he wasn't allowed over the border because he was above the age of 18 and was told he needed to stay in Ukraine. It is a very difficult situation, if the border guards know the people trying to leave are Indian and believe India is 'supporting' Russia in invading their country and killing their civilians, they might not view them fleeing the same country with much sympathy. Doesn't make their treatment of the Indian students right, but it is a highly emotionally charged situation.[/quote]
I must admit this was my first thought on the Indian student situation. In war situations people generally become very tribal and you’re either with us or against us. It’s not right, but I suspect sadly somewhat inevitable.

You need to be able to spot enemies quickly (and I should imagine many are viewing India as backers of Russia) and innocent people are inevitably caught up in the binary thinking. Tied in with the racism which is much more prevalent in Eastern Europe I’m not surprised.

We are witnessing the emergence of a global power in this crisis: the European Union.

I'm still trying to fully absorb the EU's actions but on first impression I'm hugely impressed. They've gone far beyond what I'd expected.

@RJnomore1

My own extremely inadequate understanding was that the UN was set up to stop there ever being a ww3 and so I’m a bit surprised to find it toothless here… as you can see I know very little though.

No you are right, it was set up for just that, and it relies on nations working together to come to diplomatic resolution and a forum of discussion to talk about what can be done to prevent war.

But when one country goes rouge, there isn't much it can do.

Now just because NATO and the UN can talk about it, and say we can't do anything, nobody do anything. There isn't anything in reality stoping nations from disagreeing with either and doing what they want. UK and USA did this when they decided to go in to Iraq I believe. They went against "better judgment".

However, I genuinely hope nobody decides "fuck it I'm going in to Ukraine" because that will be the straw that breaks the camel's back and we will have a Cuban missile crisis stand off.

I always thought the removal of American-linked Britain might actually strengthen Europe. There are some real democracies and traditions of it over there: Britain’s have all but reverted back to empire days.

I think Zelenskyy is remarkable for a man who is not a career politician, although he is a law graduate. He's smart enough to know this is not just about Ukraine though, that's why it's so important to stand up to Putin.

Have you seen that Turkey is applying the terms of the Montreux treaty, meaning Russian warships not based in Black Sea ports won't be able to pass through the Bosphorus? I've not seen this mentioned on these threads yet, but apologies if it has been.

But when one country goes rouge

we're all left with red faces.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Accidentally published and revoked but archived - reveals the true plan (will need translating in app unless you read Russian!).

uz.sputniknews.ru/20220226/nastuplenie-rossii-i-novogo-mira-22994815.html

@FatFredsFriedEgg

But when one country goes rouge

we're all left with red faces.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Hahaha 🤣 o didn't even notice, my phone's autocorrect must be feeling flirtatious 🤣

(Obviously propaganda!)

@FatFredsFriedEgg

We are witnessing the emergence of a global power in this crisis: the European Union.

I'm still trying to fully absorb the EU's actions but on first impression I'm hugely impressed. They've gone far beyond what I'd expected.

Agreed.

I think Putin has massively underestimated the resolve of "the West" and also the lack thereof of its traditional allies.

China for example, whilst not condemning Russia's action has refused to endorse them.

apple.news/Asrmi2hGXQK2tnMdb5ILQ1w

Putin is becoming increasingly isolated and this war isn't going to plan.

He expected total capitulation from Ukraine and an invasion that would take only days.

Instead he's damaged the Russian economy and every day it lasts, Russia is bleeding money.

I was told off on here for something like that last night.

I just can't stop myself commenting on funny things, even if it's inappropriate. Sorry.

@RJnomore1

My own extremely inadequate understanding was that the UN was set up to stop there ever being a ww3 and so I’m a bit surprised to find it toothless here… as you can see I know very little though.

Lord Robert Cecil played a founding role in the League of Nations and was one of its biggest advocates. Even he said that if a country becomes aggressive and hell bent on war then no international body would be able to stop it. Rings true for the UN today as well

Seems the problem with people stuck at UK immigration has been solved...

People who are settled in the UK will be able to bring their Ukrainian immediate family members to join them, the prime minister has announced.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60550238

I have an awful feeling about Kyiv tonight. The papers are saying satellites are showing pictures of it surrounded by Russian troups. They will hunt down and kill Zelenskyy or take him to Russia as a prisoner and try him for war crimes in a Kangaroo court. All the roads from Kyiv are blocked and there will be no evacuation of civilians. It's dreadful.

@FatFredsFriedEgg

But when one country goes rouge

we're all left with red faces.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Now that ones quite funny, You thought of standing for PM ? Comedian's can make fantastic leaders unlike Clowns.

@ilovebrie8

Let’s hope this comes to an end soon it’s terrible 😞 I can’t believe how brave the ordinary people are and putting up such a fight ...their president is an inspiration...yeah everyone has a crush on him

Hell yes! And the Klitscho brothers!

I honestly never expected the EU to respond so robustly. Even on the first day of the invasion, they seemed very wishy-washy.

The real surprise to me is Germany, which held out the longest on financial sanctions and now is ready to finance lethal weapons aid, massively rearm itself, and go back to nuclear energy to reduce their dependence on Russian energy.

Switzerland is freezing assets. Sweden and Finland are talking about joining NATO. A very diverse range of countries is supplying weapons and now possibly even fighter jets!

It's like Europe has woken up and realised they actually are kind of powerful and can stand up to Russia. Putin must be completely shocked by this.