The Invasion Continues...

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Thread two as thread one is complete...

It would be more likely European but non EU and non NATO country next, if there is a next. Hoping the difficulties his army is having so far might deter him from trying another country. That said, there were reports of Russian army exercises just across the border in Lapland earlier this week.

Side note: this is a very informative thread, thank you to those who've posted links for sources.

I have tickets for the Russian ballet, I had not really imagined this would happen when I bought them, and have to confess I am sad not to go because it was also cancelled at Christmas due to Omicron, but there is no way we can all continue as normal given what is happening today.

My blood is boiling with Putin thanking his army for their 'impeccable service' who even uses languages like that when you are directing and inciting the mass murder of young families?

What are the Russian soldiers fighting for?

I completely agree with you. When you’re fighting to retain your homeland there’s a passion that burns as a fire inside. When you’re just taking orders with nothing against your enemy there’s no fire.

Youve only got to see the video of the Ukrainean woman throwing sunflower seeds at the Russian soldier. He had no hatred for her. It was obvious he was weary and didn’t want to be there.

[quote GallopingHighRoad]@FatFredsFriedEgg
Malta is in the EU. It is also a place where there is some Russian money because of tax loopholes that mean wealth taxes on European property can be avoided.[/quote]
Yes, I know Malta's in the EU, as are the other countries I mentioned. I was responding to "if anything, he’ll go for an EU country that’s not NATO, but not Sweden/Finland."

Apart from Sweden and Finland there are only 4 EU members who aren't in NATO: Austria, Cyprus, Ireland and Malta.

I was just wondering which of those four was being suggested as Putin's next invasion target.

Has anyone mentioned UN peacekeeping forces?

[quote ChocolateDigestivesMmmm]@DazzlePaintedBattlePants No you're right, I don't think he would go for a NATO country next, unprovoked...but if NATO were to intervene in a tough way, like some people want...I don't know. We're a NATO county. We would have to go up against Russia too. We have Russia not far and also Serbia, with Russian weapons. And the whole Balkan region nursing historic grievances against each other, which are egged on by Russian propaganda. Things just feel very...on knife edge. [/quote]
The West is watching. China is watching. It’s a chess game.

I was just wondering which of those four was being suggested as Putin's next invasion target

Cyprus would be a problem. Seeing as the RAF and the UK army have bases there.

The others would be complicated geographically.

So I don't think those countries have much to fear.

Cyprus would be a problem. Seeing as the RAF and the UK army have bases there.

It's conveniently close to the Russian bases in Syria though.

@Tigersonvaseline

Has anyone mentioned UN peacekeeping forces?

We discussed this on the last thread. Russia would have to approve any UN mission (it has a Security Council veto), that is not on the cards anytime soon.

Thank you for this thread. Really informative if chilling reading.

Can Narendra Modi of India not negotiate with Putin and the West? He is no humanitarian peacemaker but he is perfectly placed to talk Putin down. Thinking the only way back from the abyss is to let Ukraine fall so Putin saves face with his people, but stops his ambitions there.

Many thanks to those of you that posted the Lawrence Freedman article - I hadn't come across him before. It was enlightening.

Unlikely that Cyprus will be a target as pp said there are RAF and army including sovereign base areas but also Turkey still hold the north and I don't think Putin will move against Erdogan.

I'm glued to this thread and the ongoing news and my DH questioned it until I pointed out the unprecedented view of history being made in a digital/immediately reportable age and the way in which the worlds response (both those in charge and the people) will influence war in the future.

Zelenskyy and his countrymen are amazing.

I'm glued to this thread and the ongoing news and my DH questioned it until I pointed out the unprecedented view of history being made in a digital/immediately reportable age and the way in which the worlds response (both those in charge and the people) will influence war in the future

I don't think it's unprecedented - but because it's a European nation just a few hours from the UK, it's getting a lot of coverage.

Sadly over recent conflicts haven't galvanised the West.

I do wonder how it's being viewed in other parts of the world - in Western democracies that are a long way away as well as other democracies in other continents.

Is it just a conflict in a country a long way away and they aren't too interested?

Morning all just popping in.

With regards to the next move, if Putin really is in self destruct mode. Moldova would be my guess, non EU, Non NATO and on the border of Ukraine. Would also allow more access to the black sea.

@cakeorwine

I'm glued to this thread and the ongoing news and my DH questioned it until I pointed out the unprecedented view of history being made in a digital/immediately reportable age and the way in which the worlds response (both those in charge and the people) will influence war in the future

I don't think it's unprecedented - but because it's a European nation just a few hours from the UK, it's getting a lot of coverage.

Sadly over recent conflicts haven't galvanised the West.

I do wonder how it's being viewed in other parts of the world - in Western democracies that are a long way away as well as other democracies in other continents.

Is it just a conflict in a country a long way away and they aren't too interested?

Do you mean eg Australia?

I’m sure they are concerned but also have just offered lethal aid

It may not feel as close as in Europe but the concern and interest would be there

Any threat to democracy will be a very large concern for democratic governments worldwide.

Zelenskyy and his countrymen are amazing.

Aren’t they just. They’re stiffening under it too. If they can hold out…

You know, I’m looking far too far ahead and too optimistically, but it crossed my mind to wonder if we are seeing the start of something here: the rebirth of a Central European federation. It’s been a loooong time.

@TheSillyMastiff

Morning all just popping in.

With regards to the next move, if Putin really is in self destruct mode. Moldova would be my guess, non EU, Non NATO and on the border of Ukraine. Would also allow more access to the black sea.

Moldova's landlocked isn't it?

@cakeorwine

I'm glued to this thread and the ongoing news and my DH questioned it until I pointed out the unprecedented view of history being made in a digital/immediately reportable age and the way in which the worlds response (both those in charge and the people) will influence war in the future

I don't think it's unprecedented - but because it's a European nation just a few hours from the UK, it's getting a lot of coverage.

Sadly over recent conflicts haven't galvanised the West.

I do wonder how it's being viewed in other parts of the world - in Western democracies that are a long way away as well as other democracies in other continents.

Is it just a conflict in a country a long way away and they aren't too interested?

Syria's government as imagined are supportive of Russia, Assad has been pretty clear about this.

Afghanistan under Taliban rule have said "they want peace in Ukraine".

Japan who's civilian transport vessel was shelled accidentally by Russia in the black sea, is calling for peace, but is in talks with the EU regarding trade and energy.

Australia has offered lethal aid.

New Zealand is quiet.

Other parts of Asia such as Nepal and Thaiwan are asking for peace in Ukraine. As are parts of South America.

Thing is the rest of the world is watching these economic sanctions come in on Russia, they don't want to be seen like Belarus. They don't want a 3rd party economic and political sanction, many can't afford it after a crippling global pandemic.

India and China are hedging their bets by indifference. They rely on Russia economically but if Russia falls economically then I think you'll see a switch in position.

Only because Ukraine borders the south to the black sea, but if Ukraine is taken and the Moldova you get another transport route, you also push up against the Romanian Border.

So you'd see Russia expand to border a significant part of Romania. Putting Romania in a similar position as the Ukraine with 3/4 of its land border connected to New Russia.

Putin has lied throughout this entire nightmare. His threats about consequences we've never seen before are (in my opinion) just more bullshit designed to scare everyone away from intervening. He must know that for every Nuke he launches he'll get 10 back.

Half the world is trying to stop Russia right now. Sending arms, supplies, intelligence, aid, and basically everything besides boots on the ground. He's been sanctioned left right and centre and almost everyone is turning their backs on Russia. Where are the consequences? He's full of hot air and bullshit and should be treated as such. Nasty little prick that he is.

Refugee numbers now at 368000. (Guardian online)

@ParsleySageRosemary

Zelenskyy and his countrymen are amazing.

Aren’t they just. They’re stiffening under it too. If they can hold out…

You know, I’m looking far too far ahead and too optimistically, but it crossed my mind to wonder if we are seeing the start of something here: the rebirth of a Central European federation. It’s been a loooong time.

I don't know if I'm optimistic. I'm not sure the Russians are doing as badly as social media would have us believe. I've seen some sources that suggest they've made quite rapid progress compared to the early days of comparable wars/occupations.

It's the fog of war stuff isn't it? There's a lot of misinformation and propaganda on social media right now. It's one thing photoshopping Zelenskyy into Marvel posters and video game footage but in reality you can't meme or tweet a victory into reality.

I think it will be quite some time before we get anywhere near an accurate picture of what has been going on since Thursday.

Twitter certainly seems to think Ukraine is the winning side but twitter also thought Labour would win the 2019 election in a landslide so...

I hope I'm wrong but it seems impossible to work out exactly how the ground game is going right now.

A twitter thread on how Poland is helping Ukranian refugees, it's heartwarming and devastating at the same time.

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1497875566460121091?s=21

Twitter certainly seems to think Ukraine is the winning side but twitter also thought Labour would win the 2019 election in a landslide so...

It is fact that the Ukrainians are putting up a much bigger and better defence than anyone, including the Russians, expected. That's not just twitter.