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The Invasion Continues...

999 replies

Damnloginpopup · 25/02/2022 16:20

Thread two as thread one is complete...

OP posts:
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7
Phrenologistsfinger · 26/02/2022 12:46

An interesting perspective: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/25/words-deeds-putin-shows-hes-rejecting-even-soviet-era-borders/
I mean he seems unhinged enough for this to be credible…

dreamingbohemian · 26/02/2022 13:02

@Phrenologistsfinger

An interesting perspective: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/25/words-deeds-putin-shows-hes-rejecting-even-soviet-era-borders/ I mean he seems unhinged enough for this to be credible…
Yes it does seem like Putin's intent is not to recreate the Soviet Union but to restore the Russian Empire, people have been saying this for a while but his speeches this week make it more obvious.

In practical terms it doesn't make a huge difference, it's more or less the same territories (depending what year you look at).

Natsku · 26/02/2022 13:03

@OnlyOpenMouthToChangeFeet

Sorry, explanation of how the bomb works didn't post with pic.
  1. Precision-guided bomb strikes building entrance
  2. Primary explosion: fine aerosol mist of highly explosive chemical mixture penetrates the building
  3. Secondary explosion blasts through corridors at supersonic speed
  4. Pressure wave kills anyone sheltering deeper within the structure
Does that pressure wave get through apartment bomb shelters?
notimagain · 26/02/2022 13:08

@FatFucker

http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1497485623225200640?s=21

Can anyone confirm this is genuine footage! I mean it's almost a game changer!

That footage popped up earlier on a forum generally populated by ex-military and nobody there seemed to think the footage was fake…

It would be a game changer the whole Russian operation and logistics chain was in a similar state….if not?

dreamingbohemian · 26/02/2022 13:09

We really all have to pray that they don't use thermobaric weapons, especially in a city, they are hideous

They are not explicitly banned in international law but many countries consider their use to be unlawful because they are so indiscriminate, inhumane and non-proportional

Both the US and Russia have used them though, Russia in Chechnya and Syria, and the US in Afghanistan and Iraq.

RagzRebooted · 26/02/2022 13:09

@FatFucker

http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1497485623225200640?s=21

Can anyone confirm this is genuine footage! I mean it's almost a game changer!

I think it must be, Russia don't seem to have planned this very well. Feel sorry for the soldiers.
notimagain · 26/02/2022 13:12

Does that pressure wave get through apartment bomb shelters?

Sadly unless the shelters are a heck of a long way from the origin of the explosion, and/or are protected from the pressure wave by sealed blast proof doors the answer sadly is yes.

Tigersonvaseline · 26/02/2022 13:15

I'd be amazed if Russia hadn't planned it well and then what's the deal with one broke down?
Maybe it had a fault tank

Natsku · 26/02/2022 13:17

@notimagain

Does that pressure wave get through apartment bomb shelters?

Sadly unless the shelters are a heck of a long way from the origin of the explosion, and/or are protected from the pressure wave by sealed blast proof doors the answer sadly is yes.

Shit. That's worrying. Hope they don't use them.
Tigersonvaseline · 26/02/2022 13:18

They used every thing in Syria

OnlyOpenMouthToChangeFeet · 26/02/2022 13:20

It depends on distance I believe, it affects everything within a certain radius

notimagain · 26/02/2022 13:22

@Tigersonvaseline

I'd be amazed if Russia hadn't planned it well and then what's the deal with one broke down? Maybe it had a fault tank
They can plan as well as they like but there’s (yet another old adage) about a plan of action only lasts until first contact with the enemy.

You are quite right it might be one faulty vehicle but there are now supposedly certainly signs (according to those that understand these things) that parts of the Russian operation, including some of the logistics, is most certainly not running to plan.

Many suspect the Russians planned/provisioned/fueled up for a 24-48 hour campaign….

Phrenologistsfinger · 26/02/2022 13:24

@dreamingbohemian yes, I appreciate that it isn’t too different geographically speaking but it does I think go to how removed from reality utterly batshit Putin is now.

dreamingbohemian · 26/02/2022 13:25

There are loads of reports of Russian vehicles being out of fuel, of logistics and supply convoys being ambushed, this seems to be a real problem. It would explain why Russia's advance has not gone as smoothly as they obviously planned.

To me the most striking thing is that the Ukrainian air force is still flying. That's crazy! There is no reason Russia would be letting that happen except they are having some serious issues.

I know it might sound crazy that the Russians would be so ill-prepared but it's possible though this is unconfirmed leaks that Putin really did believe his own rhetoric and thought the Ukrainians would greet them as liberators and not mount any defence, so it would all be over in a couple days.

dreamingbohemian · 26/02/2022 13:28

@Phrenologistsfinger I don't know, in a way it's more realistic? Nobody is really clamouring for the Soviet Union to return, it's easier to appeal to Russian nationalism/imperialism (domestically).

Notanotherwindow · 26/02/2022 13:36

Fuck sake. Can someone not just take this lunatic out? People have been assassinated for less. Surely the Russian people can't WANT to go to war? Don't they get a say?

MMBaranova · 26/02/2022 13:41

The running out of fuel video does not seem to be a one off. Hand on heart I can't believe the Russian armed forces could be so incompetent. They have had years to plan and game this out.

This tweet has a linked video of a Ukrainian MP driving along a destroyed Russian Engineer / support column in the Kherson area. Again I just can't believe the Russian military could be caught like this. Yet they seem to have been.

twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1497521445026635778?s=20&t=NdscbKEil6WjUB1WTK3Eog

The Russian advance into Kherson Oblast seems to have been generally effective and has opened the Crimea Irrigation Canal. It is probably second only to the advance down from Belarus to Kyiv.

In the East, facing Ukrainian troops who have been in place for years facing off against the previously lost areas, the Russians seem to be having a generally harder time.

Still it is hard to tell just what is going on and we are fed crumbs plus misinformation on what is effectively only 3rd September 1939.

GallopingHighRoad · 26/02/2022 13:46

I know it might sound crazy that the Russians would be so ill-prepared but it's possible though this is unconfirmed leaks that Putin really did believe his own rhetoric and thought the Ukrainians would greet them as liberators and not mount any defence, so it would all be over in a couple days.

I am not of this view. The Russian army is well trained and well equipped these days. More likely the invasion has been tactically set in the first five days at such a threshold that Ukrainian defences are probed, logged and understood. The full force may come later, will sweep through and take not only cities and towns but rural areas and may extend right up to the borders of Romania and Poland.

There is also the possibility that Ukraine may be receiving some operational intelligence to enable it to anticipate targets as they arrive.

dreamingbohemian · 26/02/2022 13:58

More likely the invasion has been tactically set in the first five days at such a threshold that Ukrainian defences are probed, logged and understood.

So.... a slow-motion invasion? Giving Ukraine time to establish defences and import more weapons systems and ammunition? While taking out Russian troop transports and supply lines?

The Russians have had special ops and saboteurs in Ukraine for a long time now, they must have already had a good understanding of Ukrainian defences and movements.

I agree more with the theory that the initial Russian plan was all about seizing control in Kyiv, that's why they seized the airport and tried to land a large number of forces there, thinking that resistance in the capital would be low (in part because no one would fight for the regime, in part they thought they could take cities like Kharkiv very quickly, which would demoralise people in the capital).

That plan didn't work but they don't really have a backup plan except to continue to try to take Kyiv, which will now be much more difficult.

Alexandra2001 · 26/02/2022 13:58

Still it is hard to tell just what is going on and we are fed crumbs plus misinformation on what is effectively only 3rd September 1939

..with Ukraine in the role of Britain, standing alone as the rest of the world looks on.

Watching the Ukrainian people making petrol bombs, hearing about the Tennis player who is going back to Ukraine, my friend in Poland telling me that many of his work mates are going back to Ukraine to fight.

Meanwhile, Patel cancels visa's of Belarusian basketball team... i mean what on earth were they coming here in the first place? Belarus only recently hijacked an EU airliner and took 2 dissidents into captivity and probable death.... how fucking weak are we.

MMBaranova · 26/02/2022 14:00

I know it might sound crazy that the Russians would be so ill-prepared but it's possible...

This bugs me in an abstract sense. My skin in this is that I have relatives in Ukraine and, while trying to be objective, I know which side I am on. However, in a general sense I'm a bit of a Russophile, due to culture, travel and so on. Professional soldiers must surely have planned various scenarios and logisticians put things in place. The build-up leading up to the invasion must (again) surely have been accompanied by planning and not just be assembling forces. This is odd.

This isn't to say that in the short term there won't be a Russian victory. However, if you haven't worked out how to do the deed better than this, how on earth are you going to cope with a possible Afghanistan phase lasting years?

There is also the possibility that Ukraine may be receiving some operational intelligence to enable it to anticipate targets as they arrive.

I assume it is being passed on. British and American surveillance / data sucking up planes were operating in Ukraine prior to the invasion. They are now flying in Poland etc. outside of Ukrainian airspace.

peridito · 26/02/2022 14:06

It's so difficult to know the true situation .I can believe that Ukraine is being given intelligence from other parties .But other than that ?Who knows ?

So frustrating . Though slightly less troublesome than being in Ukraine right now!

MMBaranova · 26/02/2022 14:12

Looking at Flightradar just now, this is the RAF surveilling and sucking up data flying over E Poland. It is a Rivet Joint.

www.raf.mod.uk/aircraft/airseeker-rc-135w-rivet-joint/

I can't believe information collected is not passed on to Ukraine. The UK did join a three way alliance with Poland and Ukraine just over a week ago. The sixth bullet point in the link below surely suggests this?

www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-the-united-kingdom-poland-and-ukraine-17-february-2022#:

The Invasion Continues...
DuncinToffee · 26/02/2022 14:15

Both Facebook and Twitter have been hugely restricted in Russia

twitter.com/netblocks/status/1497523148362862593?s=21

In Russia, a planned partial Facebook shutdown; Twitter appears to be shut in Moscow too; media watchdog on a warpath against any media reporting anything from non-state sources about this conflict. Russia is being cut off from the truth (via Polina Ivanova)

dreamingbohemian · 26/02/2022 14:18

I completely understand that @MMBaranova, all I can say as a conflict scholar is that sometimes countries do start wars that are very poorly planned and executed.

We can look at the first Russian invasion of Chechnya in 1994, when they thought they would take Grozny in 2 days. But the battle plan was poorly designed, they did not anticipate the stiff Chechen resistance, and in the following weeks and months it was clear that poorly trained and equipped Russian forces were not going to prevail (Russia lost that war).

They went back in 1999 and this time had a better plan for taking Grozny, but had the same problems once again with poorly trained and equipped troops with low morale. They only won that war thanks to Chechen proxies.

The 2008 Russo-Georgian war, Russia essentially won that conflict but it's own internal reviews were scathing about their performance.

(We can also look at Western examples, such as the complete failure of the US/UK to plan for post-invasion Iraqi insurgency.)

Of course we would assume today's invasion would have been carefully planned and prepared for, but it's entirely possible it was not. The forces sent to Ukraine/Belarus were ostensibly sent for short-term exercises. It would have been a very small circle around Putin that planned for invasion instead, and it's entirely possible they are not that competent, or that Putin overrode their advice (as Hitler and Stalin both did).

Military analysts have been saying for a long time that Russia's military is much improved but still has serious flaws, and it's been a very long time since Russia engaged in a large-scale ground campaign. It's not unthinkable that they're making some major mistakes.

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