The invasion has begun

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Russia has begun it's invasion of Ukraine. Who knows where this will end.

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-moscow-kyiv-626a8c5ec22217bacb24ece60fac4fe1

We’ve been utter whores- a playground and save haven for their dirty money

And that is what Putin has exploited. We say X but are happy to take the money.

Freeze their assets, repossess their wives’ Kensington Mansions. Have their sons called into the Masters office at Winchester, their daughters arrested in Oxford and deported. Putin will listen to them.

this is not going to happen particularly when we are already facing a cost of living crisis. Our economic model is infiltrated by the money.

Well not anymore.

Someone was telling me years ago that Putin/Russia held the dollar by the throat and could destroy its value if they stopped using it and switched to the Euro instead.

I didn't really understand how, but the implication was that the effect on the US economy if this happened would be devastating.

I don't know
A) if this is true
B) if it was true then, it's still true now
C) how it works.

But if it was and still is true, then blocking them from the dollar would be an economically suicidal move.

(If anyone does know how this would happen, I'd be interested to understand it more)

@MarshaBradyo

Very simple. Go back to the guarantee Gorbachev was given in 1990 that NATO won't extend its forces to Eastern Europe and let Ukraine be another Finland.

How much importance do you place in what Ukraine wants?

Exactly. Why should he get that guarantee, what about what Ukraine want. Ukraine isn’t there just to provide a buffer space for Russia.

@Tigersonvaseline

Lol I'd rather vote in Kermit the frog 🐸 than have Corbyn at the helm.

Don't disagree but pretending Boris is a suitable leader, given his Russian connections and how he facilitated Putin 's aims plus his tomfoolery attitude is somehow a better PM is wrong.

He and Corbyn are different sides of the same coin.

We’ve seen this coming for years but just let the government suck up to Russian interests and set up a money laundering capital for them - to a ridiculous degree. Johnson can’t do anything. His party and his balls are in the hands of Putin. He’s made his bed and he knows it.

It’s a disaster.

We’re incredibly important to the oligarchs. We’ve been utter whores- a playground and save haven for their dirty money. Kick them out. Freeze their assets, repossess their wives’ Kensington Mansions. Have their sons called into the Masters office at Winchester, their daughters arrested in Oxford and deported

I’m with you here, Russians who have massively financially benefited from putin’s rule, as far as I can see, are supportive of his regime. This is their bribe.

Putin will listen to them

We part company here. Putin doesn’t give a shit about oligarchs. When they cease to be useful they simply cease to have relevance (at best). He has the same options as above and more along with the will to apply them ruthlessly.

There's nothing the UK or USA can do.

Sanctions are ineffective, they are something to do because we can't do nothing but Russia isnt going to withdraw because some associates of Russian officials can't transfer money or whatever.

Similarly, is the west willing to pay heavy price in blood for Ukraine? No.

My guess is Russia will stop at Ukraine. They have what many Russian's see as valid historical and ethic claims over Ukraine. I know people said the same about Hitler until he invaded Poland but I wouldn't want to risk nuclear war until they get to Germany (which I don't see happening).

Exactly. Why should he get that guarantee, what about what Ukraine want. Ukraine isn’t there just to provide a buffer space for Russia

Well, the peoples of Ukraine are not going to get what they want now are they?
They will fall under the Russian yolk for decades to come and possibly be destroyed by a protracted internal war.

Surely, any alternative that kept the Russians out would have been better?

This reads like a horror story. Hopefully sense and diplomacy will resolve this quickly.

There is plenty the US and UK can do.....

@Alexandra2001

I agree with you though. Putin will keep going, Belarus, Moldova. Slowly into each one. Just like a certain somebody did 80 years ago. I just believe the West won't rush to help militarily. I'm not saying that's right

Err these two countries are already Russian states in all but name.

Moldovan president is planning to declare a state of emergency. They are still not Russian territories officially.

I think the situation is actually terrifying and I think it is naive to think it won't impact the entire world. We have a situation now where Putin has issued extremely chilling threats to the West not to intervene. So what do we do?

Putin isn't interested in sanctions... he has decided he's doing this whatever the cost and that is a terrifying mindset. He is not someone to be reasoned with in a normal rational way - this is what people need to understand. What makes sense to most people isn't how his mind works. He has a vision for Russia/USSR and that's his focus - whether or not it is realistic or not - and his actions now have put him on a trajectory of he either goes for it 100% and delivers on his vision and promises - or drops it and looks like an utter failure in front of his own nation - which is not even an option for someone like him.

So we deploy sanctions which are unlikely to have any effect... so then what? The choice is not pleasant and this is what concerns me.

At this point military is positioned to defend the surrounding NATO countries and to provide assistance to Ukraine - but without physically going in. The principle is that they don't get involved unless Putin goes for a NATO country.

The difficulty there is that assuming Putin overwhelms and takes Ukraine - he will then be emboldened and be of the view that his threats of consequences to the West (ie Nukes) has worked - so he can use that threat again to go further, which is a dangerous place for him to be because his next target may well be a NATO country - and then we are in WW3.

This is my major concern - that the more he is allowed to do, the more emboldened and dangerous he becomes. He may well stop at Ukraine but I'm not convinced - history shows that dictators like this never just stop or limit their ambitions - and the more they are allowed to succeed, the bolder they become. Hitler was given too much latitude - given the benefit of the doubt - and look what happened. A repeat of the same mistakes.

So at this point - unless there is some sanction I don't know about that will change Putin's mind (unlikely) I do not see this ending well. It's almost a case of intervene now - or later - but the second the military from NATO countries gets involved - we're effectively in a World War scenario. Absolutely terrifying state of affairs right now because whatever way the West (and indeed the rest of the world) deals with this, it is not going to end well.

I'm not generally someone who gets all worried about international politics and what not - or worries about overseas conflict in the sense of it directly impacting the UK - but this feels different and I have a bad gut feeling about it.

We are up to our necks in Russian money, the govt more than anyone.
It is only last month that the govt shelved the economic crimes bill - that is why Lord Agnew resigned.
Johnson will puff and blow but I dont expect much more.

Excluding Russia from banking, SWIFT and currency exchanges would hurt them. It would hurt us too of course. That is the problem.

Ukraine is a vast country of 44 million people it is not easy, nor simple to take over a country despite what some pp say.

@GrendelsGrandma

The Tories are up to their armpits in Russian money, they won't do anything.

Honestly, it's a farce. Putin on one side and Liz Truss on the other. Like sending a Labrador in to deal with a polar bear.

I think that's a fals analogy.

Most labradors are intelligent.

@Keepyourheadscrewedon

Don't be afraid to say it fair

Putin is just like Hitler.

That is what he is. Invading countries for no reason apart from to control them and expand his aims and influence.

Hitler and Putin are one and the same thing.

Exactly this. Which is why it's so terrifying. And we all know what's going to come next.

@Keepyourheadscrewedon

There is plenty the US and UK can do.....

You keep saying this but i ask again, What exactly?

Absolutely devastating People are their own worst enemy. The world has been in a very dark place the last 2 years and now this. Mr Putin needs a dose of his own poison

@alfagirl73

I think the situation is actually terrifying and I think it is naive to think it won't impact the entire world. We have a situation now where Putin has issued extremely chilling threats to the West not to intervene. So what do we do?

Putin isn't interested in sanctions... he has decided he's doing this whatever the cost and that is a terrifying mindset. He is not someone to be reasoned with in a normal rational way - this is what people need to understand. What makes sense to most people isn't how his mind works. He has a vision for Russia/USSR and that's his focus - whether or not it is realistic or not - and his actions now have put him on a trajectory of he either goes for it 100% and delivers on his vision and promises - or drops it and looks like an utter failure in front of his own nation - which is not even an option for someone like him.

So we deploy sanctions which are unlikely to have any effect... so then what? The choice is not pleasant and this is what concerns me.

At this point military is positioned to defend the surrounding NATO countries and to provide assistance to Ukraine - but without physically going in. The principle is that they don't get involved unless Putin goes for a NATO country.

The difficulty there is that assuming Putin overwhelms and takes Ukraine - he will then be emboldened and be of the view that his threats of consequences to the West (ie Nukes) has worked - so he can use that threat again to go further, which is a dangerous place for him to be because his next target may well be a NATO country - and then we are in WW3.

This is my major concern - that the more he is allowed to do, the more emboldened and dangerous he becomes. He may well stop at Ukraine but I'm not convinced - history shows that dictators like this never just stop or limit their ambitions - and the more they are allowed to succeed, the bolder they become. Hitler was given too much latitude - given the benefit of the doubt - and look what happened. A repeat of the same mistakes.

So at this point - unless there is some sanction I don't know about that will change Putin's mind (unlikely) I do not see this ending well. It's almost a case of intervene now - or later - but the second the military from NATO countries gets involved - we're effectively in a World War scenario. Absolutely terrifying state of affairs right now because whatever way the West (and indeed the rest of the world) deals with this, it is not going to end well.

I'm not generally someone who gets all worried about international politics and what not - or worries about overseas conflict in the sense of it directly impacting the UK - but this feels different and I have a bad gut feeling about it.

Yes well put this is where I am

I haven’t looked but are there countries included in his vision of former Soviet Union now in NATO

I think some of posts re stopping him are underestimating where he’s at

@ThumbWitchesAbroad that was also a theory discussed pre-Iraq invasion. They were going to stop trading oil in dollars.

I can’t pretend to know the ins and outs of it but apparently Russia and China hold enough currency to completely flood the market and collapse the dollar. The accounts sheets are messy!

I’m not sure that economic strategic retaliations are enough for this situation though. Putin is operating with an historical mindset, Russia have enough raw resources to keep the favoured rich and have sacrificed their own population to famine before. We have to think like putin, his own citizens don’t have any weight here currently and they’re the only ones to suffer from economic sanctions, in fact it makes them more loyal to him if he offers any kind of sanctuary because we won’t.

@Keepyourheadscrewedon

There is plenty the US and UK can do.....

What?

Escalate to full blown nuclear war?

Get bogged in on the ground?

We should have been more flexible in our negotiations. we didn't make concessions, we didn't take Putin seriously.

Is Putin acting outrageously? Yes. We had a window of opportunity to deal with this, but we didn't.

I'm really hope there's a coup in Russia and they take him out. Some in the Russian government must think he's mad surely ??

Why should he get that guarantee, what about what Ukraine want. Ukraine isn’t there just to provide a buffer space for Russia

Because world politics, influences, invassions and control for resources have nothing to do with democracy or the will of people. Those days are gone in all our countries.

When a country is given an international guarantee their borders and the resources contained in those borders will be protected, it goes beyond peoples' will. Of course that guaranteed can be overritten specially with small countries no one gives a shit about.....but you don't do this with a country like Russia when they've been been warning the West for ages the expansion of NATO close to their borders was not acceptable and what was agreed.

Unlike a small country, Russia has the capability to implement by force the agreement of 1990 which they are doing.

@Keepyourheadscrewedon

Someone from the inside could assassinate him. Surely there must be many looking on in abject horror even within his circle. One man can not be allowed to cause this much destruction and death.

No this has to stop.

I was just thinking that.

I'm sure it has crossed the minds of many.

There has to be somebody on the inside with not much to lose, especially when the alternative is so bleak many face losing everything anyway.