The invasion has begun

[Damnloginpopup]

Russia has begun it's invasion of Ukraine. Who knows where this will end.

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-moscow-kyiv-626a8c5ec22217bacb24ece60fac4fe1

For anyone interested in background, and hearing what Putin has said in the last couple of months:

This is Putin and Zelensky talking:

Putin talking to Macron

Putin saying interalia that US wants to put supersonic missiles in Ukraine:

I am not posting in a partisan way and I take no responsiblity for the accuracy of the translations (but also have no reason to doubt them either as they match up with the Sky News translations I have seen...)

@jacketsatdawn thanks for clarifying but I still don't know what you mean by 'the UN putting in place peacekeeping measures'

Article 51 says a state can defend itself until the Security Council responds with collective security measures

Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council. The SC is not going to be doing anything. Russia has not shown any openness to UN negotiations. They want a deal with the US directly.

There is literally no point talking about Article 51. It's just bullshit rhetoric from Putin.

[quote dreamingbohemian]@Damnloginpopup I disagree they're evenly matched overall but you're right that context is key, of course

Not sure Chechnya says much about Russian capabilities, they lost the first war and were bogged down in the second until they managed to get an effective proxy on board. The second war was won through massive indiscriminate bombing and proxy warfare, not stellar Russian combat capabilities. (and also due to intra-Chechen warfare and counterproductive terrorism) And anyway that was 15 years ago, on Russian home soil.[/quote]
I'll defer to you on Chechnya. I'm either mis-remembering at best (or confusing it with some other fight somewhere) or just plain wrong.

RE: being matched, the bits that count in this situation as I see it (context of availability ignored) are:

Active Personnel – Russia: 900,000, US: 1,395,350
Reserve Personnel – Russia: 2,000,000, US: 843,450

Combat capable aircraft: Russia: 1,172, US: 1,574
Bomber aircraft – Russia: 76, US: 66
Attack helicopters – Russia: 399+, US: 740

Sea power is negated for the US, the black sea will not be open for business, and a large number of the aircraft listed above will be from their carrier groups (though these could become land based)

@Ddot

Its terrible, I understand what he is trying to accomplish. Read that some 1990 agreement with usa and some other country agreed that nato would not come into the area and weaponized neighbour countries and they did.

Russia bots busy on MN…

dreamingbohemian I am no expert here, but I haven't seen any evidence of what you have said. You may or may not be right, I don't know. Putin has asked to speak with the (neutral) PM of India I believe, set up for the next couple of days. He has said he wants an international deal re weapons in Ukraine.

@DrBlackbird to be fair the expansion post 1990 has been reported upon as a story on international news platforms

Didn’t the US leave tonnes of military equipment and weaponry in Afghanistan in their haste to withdraw? Billions worth of stuff, IIRC...

I know this is selfish but get your tariff sorted before Putin cuts us off

I saw earlier that the UK is only dependent on Russia for about 5% of its gas. Germany is around 50% dependent. Prices will certainly rise because of all this, but I'm not sure people need to get into too much of a flap about being cut off. Something to be grateful for, I guess. :/

What? Ukraine brought this on itself? I’m pretty sure you’re not suggesting that… Russia invaded, bombing both military and civilian targets, and killing Ukrainians. Panicking a sovereign nation. I thought we were all for respecting sovereignty here. Repeating this vague assertion is a major form of gaslighting.

In any event, what 1990 agreement are you talking about? The Soviet-US Chemical Agreement ie one on chemical weapons? Not sure I’d heard that was a concern here.

@Alexandra2001

It took the Russians to defeat Germany. They didn't need America coming in on the west. Britain could never have done it. It became, in effect, an American aircraft carrier, but they could not have taken Germany alone either. Only Russia could have done it alone

You need to look again at history of WW2.

Germany had a pact with the Russians, they weren't interested in helping defeat Germany.
Germany then attacked the Russians, in one of the most stupid military campaigns ever but even so, swept through the Red Army, but winter and Germany unable to re supply, led to the Russians re grouping and inflicting huge cruelty on the Germans, (understandable but brutal)
The USA coming into the war, both against Japan and Germany, would have defeated Germany regardless and had the Russians continued fighting, them as well.
They had nuclear weapons and weren't afraid to use them, in 1945, no one else did.

The numbers of planes tanks ships etc being produced by the US in 1944/45 was beyond belief, everything was better than what Germany or Russia had.

The USA has been guaranteeing our security ever since and even more today.

No, not the history, but the lateral history had it been played differently.

Germany had their pact, yes, which effectively kept Russia out of any objection to Germany taking Western Europe. Had Germany not attacked Russia for the oil in the Caucasus then they would have only had to face an enemy on one front, not slpit their forces with a very costly war in the east, both in terms of men and supplies. Stalin would not allow (did not initially believe it was happening) his forces to counterattack until the Germans were at the edges of Moscow. Then came winter. He'd also purged his officers...Barbarossa cost Germany the war.

So. lets remove the Russians from the equation by Hitler not having attacked them. Germany now has Western Europe occupied and garrisoned with friendly Spain to his southwest, Italy to his south and Finland to the north as buffers. All his forces arraigned against an America that did now want to get involved and did not until Japan attacked them. Their involvement was possible only because Hitler did not invade Britain, which he probably would have taken had it not been for radar, Dowding and fighter command. Had he done so, there is no way America would have or could have mounted any invasion to liberate Europe had they so wished. No way. Even if Germany hadn't invaded Britain, not invading Russia would have given them the might to counter any US invasion that might have come.

Had Russia then been attacked they alone had the manpower and disregard for the cost in lives to steamroller their way through Europe and defeat Germany, though it would have taken far longer with Germany facing east only.

The US have been, yes, we owe them a massive debt (and the Russians too as it happens) for defeating the Third Reich and for giving western europe the support to keep Russia in check.

NB no American or British tank was better than the Panther (or T34 on the Russian side). No infantry weapons better than the Stg44 or MG42, there was nothing to match the ME262 (almost all aerial victories were while it was landing) and nobody else had V1 and V2 rockets.

Apologies, straying straying way off topic there.

Putin and like of Alexander Lukashenko live in parallel universe. Watch some of their interviews. Cold and aggressive.

@Damnloginpopup great points but I guess it goes back to what you said about context, if it's about a Russian incursion into the Baltics then seapower is very much a factor

The US is far ahead of Russia in UAV capabilities and there are questions about Russian air defences after some less than stellar performances of Russian systems in Syria and Libya

Basically I don't think it's an easy call but we should be wary of overestimating Russia too

It seems tonight the Ukrainians have retaken the key airport outside of Kyiv, those were elite Russian airborne forces. They are not invincible is all I'm saying.

@HalfaShilling

I know this is selfish but get your tariff sorted before Putin cuts us off

I saw earlier that the UK is only dependent on Russia for about 5% of its gas. Germany is around 50% dependent. Prices will certainly rise because of all this, but I'm not sure people need to get into too much of a flap about being cut off. Something to be grateful for, I guess. :/

Not quite true, we do indeed only rely on 5% Russian but if Russian gas gets chopped, then where are Europeans going to go looking for gas? yes the european whole sale market.

NS gas is sold in the same market... of course we could change that but i doubt we would.

Anyway, energy could rise to £3300 fairly quickly if gas prices don't drop, so no one will be able to afford it.

@jacketsatdawn

dreamingbohemian I am no expert here, but I haven't seen any evidence of what you have said. You may or may not be right, I don't know. Putin has asked to speak with the (neutral) PM of India I believe, set up for the next couple of days. He has said he wants an international deal re weapons in Ukraine.

If you go back to the proposals Russia tabled in December it's very clear that they see the US as calling the shots on European security (you can also see this in Putin's war announcement today) and they want a deal directly with the US.

Putin sees Russia as a great power that makes deals with other great powers. There might be some noises about diplomacy but in practice it is about the US and Russia.

[quote dreamingbohemian]@Damnloginpopup great points but I guess it goes back to what you said about context, if it's about a Russian incursion into the Baltics then seapower is very much a factor

The US is far ahead of Russia in UAV capabilities and there are questions about Russian air defences after some less than stellar performances of Russian systems in Syria and Libya

Basically I don't think it's an easy call but we should be wary of overestimating Russia too

It seems tonight the Ukrainians have retaken the key airport outside of Kyiv, those were elite Russian airborne forces. They are not invincible is all I'm saying.[/quote]
I would not doubt for a second that the black sea is full of Russian subs already. Weren't the Russian Navy exercising there recently too? Without checking I expect they are there now.

Had not yet heard the Ukrainians have retaken the airport (am now ensconced at work for the night)if that is the case then I am really pleased. I would dearly love to see Ukraine prevail.

@dreamingbohemian Biden said today that the USA has given $640m of military equipment to Ukraine.

On capabilities, the Russians and the US have come up against each before.. or rather their equipment has, Iraq in 91, the US swept through the Russian equipped Iraqi army with ease, the T72 was no match for the M1 nor US air power.

Sure the Ruskies have re armed but so have the Americans.

Where does Trident factor in this? I don't like what we spend on it but right now it feels comforting to know that Putin knows we have it.

When I saw Putin on the news earlier I thought he looked ill; bloated and pale and like he had to be sitting behind a desk. Now I come on here and find that it's an actual theory.

No matter what happens now, Russia will never be believed again or be given any benefit of the doubt whilst Putin is in charge. Anyone who claims that he can be trusted or believed will be laughed out of the room.

@Baystard

Where does Trident factor in this? I don't like what we spend on it but right now it feels comforting to know that Putin knows we have it.

If Trident has to be used, we are all fucked.

At what point do we contemplate using it? Because once that button is pressed.....

@Baystard

Where does Trident factor in this? I don't like what we spend on it but right now it feels comforting to know that Putin knows we have it.

It doesn't, look he has snubbed his nose at nato and the west, invaded a country after we told him not too and has just told us if we interfere, he'll use nukes.

UK/Boris response? i'll sanction some banks but yet because we haven't got any laws to do so.... but we wont be sending any extra troops to the area to re enforce nato.

[quote Alexandra2001]@dreamingbohemian Biden said today that the USA has given $640m of military equipment to Ukraine.

On capabilities, the Russians and the US have come up against each before.. or rather their equipment has, Iraq in 91, the US swept through the Russian equipped Iraqi army with ease, the T72 was no match for the M1 nor US air power.

Sure the Ruskies have re armed but so have the Americans.[/quote]
Good point, but that was also a long time ago : ) Russia has massively modernised its capabilities since then.

At what point do we contemplate using it? Because once that button is pressed.....

I agree. If we didn't have it wouldn't it feel more precarious here? At least we technically have the ability retaliate if he does his worst. I'd prefer him to know that, rather than imagine he could start lobbing nuclear missiles without consequence.

So my friend works for a very very rich oligarch private jets everywhere
Sometimes has entire hotels booked out just for him and his entourage

So what happens if the sanctions are laid on with him and others?

He can't access his money for a while or longer??