ADs and the hardon colanders

[CruCru]

Here’s the new thread.

Hey ho. I need to queue at the post office this morning as I have to post presents to MIL and BIL. We thought we were going to see them on Christmas Day, or I would have done it earlier. Also the butcher and the supermarket. It’s not going to be a fun morning, and it’s raining here.

@LivinLaVidaLoki

Just about to catch up with the thread, but 2 things occurred to me this morning about this "new strain".

Firstly if viruses mutate to adapt to their environment and survive (the reason they become less deadly), then could locking us all up for months with little or no contact cause this?

Secondly if this new strain is 70% more contagious☆ but can be controlled by the social distancing measures we've had all along then does that mean covid wasn't anywhere near as contagious as we told during the spring/summer this year?

☆note...no one has actually explained what 70% more contagious means yet....

You may be right. News reports seem to be suggesting that most of the transmission is asymptomatic, which to my simple mind looks like a less virulent strain- you can’t get much milder than having no symptoms at all!

I've been to the supermarket already. I did feel a bit like a panic-buying cliche and wondered whether there would already be a queue of other panic buyers, but I'd planned to go today anyway, and I woke early so I thought I might as well get on with it. Really glad I did, it wasn't busy at all and now I'm nearly done. Go me! Still worried about me and DD having no work next year, but at least I'll put on a nice Christmas spread!

I have just been reading that the 'Nervetag' group (who monitor this sort of thing in labs apparently) are not at all certain that a mutant strain is responsible for the current increase in cases, however, if they are wrong, the truth won't come out for years, will it? I seem to remember there was a similar strain thought to be at large in Spain during the summer, but nobody shunned them because of it. Where are all these people being tested anyway? This massive increase in cases means that hundreds of thousands are being tested every day, yet in our county the places for getting a test are few and far between if you are just a member of the public. I am genuinely curious about this. Is it just because I live rurally I don't see it - are testing places near you heaving with people all day long? I was just wondering if an increase is being seen, and they are extrapolating the results to come up with a new figure. Or are most/all of these cases happening in hospitals and institutions?
I think the European response has far more to do with Brexit than coronavirus. What an absolute gift to Macron! Surely BJ's advisors must have realised this would happen, they are not that stupid, surely?
(Surely?)

The new strain is better at attaching itself to the ACE2 receptor, which is a route into the body. I think this means (a) you need less virus to affect you because it has a higher success rate; and (b) I guess that means you get a higher viral load actually entering your body for the same reason, which may make you sicker. There are also some suggestions that another mutation may affect the ability of some immuno-compromised people to recognise it if they've had Covid before. On the positive side it's likely that the vaccine will still recognise it. From my reading, it does sound like this is a real thing rather than political, but there's still a lot not known.

This is a good article shared by Tim Spector that talks about the difference between this and the Spanish version www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/mutant-coronavirus-united-kingdom-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear

We have quite a few testing centres near us, and apparently 10% of the positive results are sent for genetic testing - this seems to be an area that the UK is actually leading on in a good way!

Now that's an interesting point about what 70% more contagious actually means Loki. I was thinking of it as meaning if you had 100 people that wouldn't normally have contracted the virus then with the new strain 70 of them would but I'm not sure that makes sense...I mean Christ if that was the case we'd all be riddled.

I'm not allowed indoors anywhere except my house until after Christmas now as we want to go to my parents so I've not witnessed any shops since last Friday. Be interested to see what happens today. I hope the news doesn't entice panic buyers.

Another one needing to brave the shops for guinea pig food... and parsley (they get cross if they don't get treated with that). Expecting it to be awful, but then shopping with a toddler almost always is so that's no different!

Please can I join this thread..
I have blown my head up reading the covid threads about pe leaving London.
Need some sanity... Disclaimer... My dd is driving out of London today...apparently she will be be murdering the whole of our tier one county..
Apparently doesn't matter that she was at home in tier one for last 8 days with no symptoms, drove to our empty flat last night to get laptop and is driving straight back.
I cannot cope with the vitriol and general... Its against the roolz wailing.

Looking at the ONS covid dashboard, whilst the number of tests carried out daily hasn’t been updated since last Thursday, even with the number of positive tests being yesterday’s 35,928 that is still less than 10% testing positive. This is what I don’t really understand. Hospital admissions are going up but don’t they usually this time of year anyway? I’m puzzled.

It’s so sad, what are they doing to people?

Most of my family live in Kent an hour from Dover and my Dad has just put on the family WhatsApp that the supermarkets are being raided by panic buyers. They are literally causing a breakdown of society - isolating people, causing massive divisions with their blame game, scaring the crap out of everybody and now there really are food shortages and right before Christmas.
I realise I am going out on a limb here because I do know the virus exists but I cant help but feel this is all a little too convenient for brexit too. I know they couldn’t have predicted the arrival of covid but equally I do think they are using it to full advantage. I won’t be surprised if we get another extension or even the one time offer to re-join.

@Reedwarbler

I have just been reading that the 'Nervetag' group (who monitor this sort of thing in labs apparently) are not at all certain that a mutant strain is responsible for the current increase in cases, however, if they are wrong, the truth won't come out for years, will it? I seem to remember there was a similar strain thought to be at large in Spain during the summer, but nobody shunned them because of it. Where are all these people being tested anyway? This massive increase in cases means that hundreds of thousands are being tested every day, yet in our county the places for getting a test are few and far between if you are just a member of the public. I am genuinely curious about this. Is it just because I live rurally I don't see it - are testing places near you heaving with people all day long? I was just wondering if an increase is being seen, and they are extrapolating the results to come up with a new figure. Or are most/all of these cases happening in hospitals and institutions? I think the European response has far more to do with Brexit than coronavirus. What an absolute gift to Macron! Surely BJ's advisors must have realised this would happen, they are not that stupid, surely? (Surely?)

There are 2 testing places within a 15 minute drive of my house. Each time I drive past them they are empty. Except yesterday. There was one car with a couple just pulling into it.

My assumption is that 70% more contagious means that, on average, if 100 people would have been infected with the old strain under a certain set of circumstances (in a large gathering where a certain number of people have the old strain of the virus, say) then 170 people would be infected in an identical gathering where the same number of people have the new strain.

I too have visions of Boris now running about going 'oh shit, I didn't realise that the rest of the world would take us seriously about the new strain'.

I went to the supermarket this morning for the last Christmas bits. Was going to go yesterday but then didn't want to face the mass rush after Saturday's announcement.

It seemed totally normal and everyone was just getting the usual Christmas bits, so more people around the dips, pork pies and pates, no one appearing to be stock piling pasta. Nothing like the panic and empty shelves in March. We are still Tier 3 though so might be different down South.

Also, I think Dover is more about Brexit than Covid, and I struggle to think of any prime minister who'd have done a good job of this. Can you imagine how much Blair would have enjoyed locking us all up for our own good?

Lostinacloud I just came on to post the same thing, that ramping up the covid is a good cover for the shit show that is Brexit. Now the government can just blame covid for it and cover their incompetence. It all seems to convenient. Scare and distract the masses.

I'm off to the post office now to post the smaller Christmas presents to my parents in Essex.

Stage 1 of Operation Christmas in the Blobby household now complete . DS1 repatriated from a secret location last night and picked up from his base by me and his sister at 2345 hrs. Got home just before 2am so absolutely knackered now and predict lots of coffee to be consumed at work this morning! Lots of gantry signs with STAY HOME TIER 4 displayed but no road blocks

DS2 will be collected, maybe under the cover of night and in camouflage (haven't decided yet nut a mask and baseball cap might be enough) from one of the most northern tube stations either tomorrow night or the next. He's been isolating and wfh for 10 days and we won't be going anywhere when he's home (no elderly and vulnerable to visit!) so stuff the T4 lockdown. Planning a route avoiding major roads, just in case GCHQ are watching the traffic cameras and wishing I hadn't cleaned my car yesterday as number plate is so-o-o shiny now! .

@Theredjellybean WHAT PART OF GLOBAL PANDEMIC DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND???

I’m in London. Haven’t left but I know a few people that have and have zero judgement, as a PP has said it’s mostly young-ish single people.
Single people sitting in tiny flats that they bought for 600k and are now worthless because of cladding issues. No judgement at all.

I’m picking DS1 up from his work tomorrow, he’ll be furloughed from then on, they’re just putting the cinema and theatre to bed. We’re all in tier 4
but there is no way I’d leave him to spend Christmas on his own in a flat. Possibly thinking of wearing uniform, it would be a brave person to stop a car driven by a paramedic 😆, if I did get stopped with him in the car I could say I’m picking him up from work to avoid him using public transport. He travels light so only a rucksack, no telltale suitcases. This shit has turned me into a covert operator par excellence.

I'm loving seeing all the solstice celebrations today. While some people are quivering in fear indoors others are reaching for joy and companionship and hope outside.
I'm fascinated by the differing realities that people are imposing on themselves.

DH's and the neighbour's car have both gone green from months of minimal use. One was black and one was white.

I failed to recognise mine one night coming out of the supermarket because of the combination of dirt interacting with the streetlamps making it look a completely different colour.

Normally I find Dec 21 a bit of a relief, knowing that the days don't get any shorter. And normally there's the change in tone as Christmas and New Year are imminent. Not feeling it this year.

@Blobby10 do you feel like you’re in the French resistance?

Trying to summon the enthusiasm to go and hug my Solstice Tree. It had a rocking social life back in May/ June as people felt "safe" to group up in the random field and sit under it. It was one of the nice little things at the time, seeing people out and about being human when I was feeling really starved of contact beyond my household.

I’m loving all the under cover of darkness relative extractions
I saw a Facebook thread about some poor overseas children stuck in boarding schools over Christmas - I want to get an A Team van, go and scoop all of them up and then dodge traffic cameras all the way home. Maybe some of us hardy mumsnetters should coordinate a plan to stick chewing-gum over all the motorway cameras and help our fellow AD’s