ADs dream of 'bum' tomatoes, gin and tonic sorbet and next year's holidays

[RealityExistsInTheHumanMind]

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The one with the phallic aubergines

Did NOT foresee them watching Piggy’s death on a loop and gasping with delight each and every time. 😂

This is why things like the gruesome bits of Horrible Histories, & people getting injured on trampolines on You've Been Framed are so popular with youngsters!

Read Lord of the Flies aged 14 & didn't think too deeply about it at that age. Re-read it to DD for GCSE (it was the only way to get her to "read" anything at the time, me reading aloud to her in the vague hope it went in). Anyway, on re-reading it, the full horror struck me.

I really wonder what Maggie would have done.

Whatever it was it would have been done with far more certainty than BoJo.

I suspect it would have been very much a Swedish approach.

This is what we know
This is what we advise
Now get on with it

The down side would be blaming those who caught it anyway AND very little if any support for businesses. Which would, I think, have led to the V shaped crash and recovery that was predicted in the early days.

@Willow2017

Anyone got the link to the gov or nhs paper where they admitted many deaths were put down as covid when they were Not?

I try to avoid the news but it was on a couple of nights ago and noticed under the screen dominating number of deaths so far, they now have a little disclaimer in small print (of course) saying something like “includes deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test”. So not all Covid deaths then 🙄

Although got sucked into listening to it a couple of days ago because it was refreshingly surprisingly anti-dementorish, then I realised I was watching sky news rather than bbc.

Have to admit I’d forgotten about Leicester too/ or just assumed it was over since it’s never mentioned anymore.

I’ve just read ds2s schools risk assessment. Someone has put a hell of a lot of work into it but it does sound like some sort of prison regime.
Fortunately they’ve drawn the line at making masks compulsory in corridors.

@TheOrchidKiller

Did NOT foresee them watching Piggy’s death on a loop and gasping with delight each and every time. 😂

This is why things like the gruesome bits of Horrible Histories, & people getting injured on trampolines on You've Been Framed are so popular with youngsters!

Read Lord of the Flies aged 14 & didn't think too deeply about it at that age. Re-read it to DD for GCSE (it was the only way to get her to "read" anything at the time, me reading aloud to her in the vague hope it went in). Anyway, on re-reading it, the full horror struck me.

Agreed - as a kid it was a really good story, no issue at all with seeing it as fiction that wouldn't and couldn't happen.

Now, I'm pretty sure it would happen and pretty quickly.

Lord of the flies was part of GCSE coursework. I went away and rewrote it with girls rather than boys and how they would react in the same circumstances. Got top marks for that, wish I still had it.

The story about the meteor are exactly what is wrong with the press at the moment. It's 2m long. It's tiny. It will almost certainly pass by unremarkably but even if it did 'hit' us, it would break up in the atmosphere because it's so small. The meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs was about 50km and even that didn't wipe out all life. But the MSM won't report that because ethey get much more attention for predicting (another) end of the world.

Thank you, @starfish88, for that sensible summary.

I wasn't bothered - as DF says, when your number's up, it's up, & that sort of disaster is beyond your control. It's the fact that it gets reported at all, it's the revelling in misery over an unlikely event when so many people are struggling with what is actually happening, that is morally wrong.

Also headlining today is the leaked SAGE report that 85,000 could die from covid this winter. As Carl Heneghan (what a hero) says, it's not helpful. It's not a prediction, it's a worst case scenario.

That phrase, & understanding the difference, is so important.

@wanderings

Are you at today’s Trafalgar Square protest?

Just seen that there’s a phenomenal 35,000 people turn out.

Next one I believe is September 26

@TheOrchidKiller

Thank you, *@starfish88*, for that sensible summary.

I wasn't bothered - as DF says, when your number's up, it's up, & that sort of disaster is beyond your control. It's the fact that it gets reported at all, it's the revelling in misery over an unlikely event when so many people are struggling with what is actually happening, that is morally wrong.

Also headlining today is the leaked SAGE report that 85,000 could die from covid this winter. As Carl Heneghan (what a hero) says, it's not helpful. It's not a prediction, it's a worst case scenario.

That phrase, & understanding the difference, is so important.

agreed - guess that's the same model that predicted 500,000 uk deaths in March

Doubt it was 'leaked' that suggests we weren't meant to see it and I'm damn sure we were - what they don't realise is that you are already scared if that scares you - for the rest of us it's just MALACAs

I’ve just applied my vast mathematical and engineering prowess to creating a model for covid deaths this winter.

reveals calculator screen with a flourish

80081355

@InsaneInTheViralMembrane
Go on, post it on the coronavirus board. I dare you...

Meteors falling to earth... I decided years ago that if a big 'dinosaur killer' sized one was falling to earth I would like to be directly beneath it. The main reason being that the heat it would generate as it entered our atmosphere means you would be vapourised before it hit the ground you were standing on. (Or so I have read) That sounds like an easy instant death, which would be preferable to slow starvation in a world of perpetual night.

Interesting but lengthy Twitter discussion of false positives here.
twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1299345737659166721?s=19

If I'm understanding correctly, if they decided our town of just over 100,000 was at risk of am epidemic and managed to test ten percent, they'd find 40 false positives as a conservative estimate. Hence confirming the outbreak.

@InsaneInTheViralMembrane

I’ve just applied my vast mathematical and engineering prowess to creating a model for covid deaths this winter.

reveals calculator screen with a flourish

80081355

I love it!

Of course that number of deaths is my fault because pre-lockdown lard, that was my bra size

@Thanksitsgotpockets

Interesting but lengthy Twitter discussion of false positives here. twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1299345737659166721?s=19

If I'm understanding correctly, if they decided our town of just over 100,000 was at risk of am epidemic and managed to test ten percent, they'd find 40 false positives as a conservative estimate. Hence confirming the outbreak.

I worked it out as 10 out of 100,000 with the figures I saw.

I worked it out that with current rate it was 8 genuine positives and 2 false negatives
Plus the 10 false positives

@BogRollBOGOF

Of course that number of deaths is my fault because pre-lockdown lard, that was my bra size

🤣🤣🤣🤣

This is the document they took the 0.4 false positive figure from in the tweet
<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895843/S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjZoZSz48DrAhXhVBUIHffaDb4QFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw09SwJFWA4XgwYBHC_2lA7i" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895843/S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjZoZSz48DrAhXhVBUIHffaDb4QFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw09SwJFWA4XgwYBHC_2lA7i

Ah it's 0.4 percent of the positives found? Not of the population tested?

What is it with the end of the worls catastrophising doomsters today?

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/29/covid-19-catastrophe

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/01/care-homes/

On GPs recording deaths as covid without a test...

🤣🤣🤣 @InsaneInTheViralMembrane and @BogRollBOGOF

My neighbours are having a barbecue and no doubt breaking all manner of non existent, made up on MN rules.
Personally I think they are mad...........

..........it’s bloody freezing out there

[quote Thanksitsgotpockets]This is the document they took the 0.4 false positive figure from in the tweet
<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895843/S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjZoZSz48DrAhXhVBUIHffaDb4QFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw09SwJFWA4XgwYBHC_2lA7i" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895843/S0519_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjZoZSz48DrAhXhVBUIHffaDb4QFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw09SwJFWA4XgwYBHC_2lA7i[/quote]
I can't remember now where it was but it said it was 99.99% accurate in terms of false . Which sounds great and is pretty good when there are many thousands of genuine positives but the lower the rate of infection the greater the distortion by 1 in 10,000 tests throwing up a false positive.

And makes it harder to persuade those who understand to be tested unless they already really think they have it.

in terms of false positives*

I just wish the media would start to focus on the positive more, because I feel like every time we start to turn a positive covid corner along stamps the BBC with some random article about covid creeping out of toilet bowls.