Anti dementors are going to hit the shops. Who wants to come?

[Shodan]

This'll be thread number 13, I think.

Let's hope it's a lucky one

(Sorry about the feeble title)

@Orangeblossom78

I think Nicola reckons Boris will drop the 2m to 1m and then she can follow and blame him for the fallout perhaps?

If Boris drops it to 1m she will increase it to 3m because she is “following the science”. STAY SAFE.

@Cattermole

Here - does anybody know how the Daily (Sadly) Death Show is jumping from 79 in a hospital setting over a timeframe of several weeks, to 180-odd? Adding in let's say 30 from Scotland, Wales and NI, is that another 80 in care home settings and outside hospitals yesterday?

There are a number of things going on.

The daily death number is deaths we became aware of yesterday, not those that died yesterday; those deaths are spread over a number of days. For example, the current known number of people who actually died in hospital yesterday is 8 - that will increase over the next week or so as reports come in. It's currently 39 for Monday, 47 for Sunday. Of the 77 hospital deaths announced today, 19 are from more than a week ago. The care home deaths will be the same.

The numbers released each day swing quite a lot depending on reporting cycles. Hospitals and care homes don't tend to report at weekends, so numbers on Sunday and Monday are usually low, then reports come through that make the Tuesday and Weds numbers high.

It's much more useful to look at the 7 rolling day average, which is steadily down.

(it's actually even more useful to look at the actual deaths by day, but PHE stopped giving that for their data about a week ago which is not helpful.)

Another funny thread about how this situation might help us 'embrace all weathers". Hmm

The Torygraph says Nicola has had a 'huge backlash' from parents, hence the new stuff about opening properly. She doesn't know how though [confusing]

For this, she will need to go first as Scottish schools go back a month earlier. Interesting to see what happens.

In fact only 6 weeks away..not long

I am pleased to know I am not the only one. I dont think I'll ever be able to vote for her again after this.

I really fucking hate how they get angry when they're asked questions now. FMQs was a prime example - attack motive of questioner, patronise them by saying its complicated, if all else fails accuse them of being cavalier with children's lives. Nobody is allowed to have a genuine concern, they never admit when they're wrong but just come out with muddled messages.

It's become the exact opposite of what leadership should be now.

I'm heading into the city tomorrow and intend to shop myself into a coma and I shall mostly be purchasing totally unnecessary things that just catch my eye. Can't wait.

@PatriciaHolm that's what I mean. The hospital data is broken down by date and has a degree of context. The jump between NHS hospital-based data and "everything else" is so unaccountable - in the sense that there's no contextual information provided, not as in so weird - it's almost as if it's deliberately presented alarmingly.

@toilenstripes we are, we're the anti dementors. All the nutjobs on the other threads were lovingly nicknamed dementors several weeks ago as they suck the joy out of everything. These threads are the antithesis of that! Welcome!

And for some more Prof Sakora love, my friend just sent me this. I could read it so don't think it's behind a paywall. Hope you can read it:

digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/262/reader/reader.html?social#!preferred/0/package/262/pub/262/page/87/article/51900

lol at the low key thread - I only got a sentence in before giving up. I didn't link to this learnenglish.britishcouncil.org/english-grammar-reference/reflexive-pronouns ... just rolled my eyes and clicked on the 'x'.

ds2 declared it a good birthday despite the rain.

I

@trapped I know we've collectively decided we don't like BBC news anymore because they're miserable dementors but I did remember this article from a while ago. Some useful hints. Good luck!

www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200407-zoom-five-tips-to-look-your-best-on-video-calls

twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1270103002960072705

This is quite funny, particularly if you over 40 ish

@Orangeblossom78 the HTs got told to go away and produce plans for reopening on 2 meter distancing. Stuff appeared in papers about having Monday/Tuesday or Thursday/Friday in school for a short period.

The HTs then discovered that a lot of schools couldn't actually do that and started sending out frankly mental rotations where some kids were in on different days every week for less than an average of two, or even one.

Not surprisingly, parents started to kick off then the education secretary announced it was going to take a year to get back to normal, and blamed councils for not being able to suddenly find millions for staff and buildings.

Cue thousands of angry letters from parents, and the SG apparently shocked by this.

NS seems to be trying to make out it will be back to normal soon but education secretary seems less positive, and had a dreadful zoom meeting last night in which he seemed startled to learn that parents needed childcare over the summer.

Then FMQs today where opposition leaders got dementored over Kawasaki syndrome, for asking perfectly legit questions.

School staff have spent ages setting up classrooms for 2 meter rule and go on holiday next week and nobody knows if they're going to stick with 2m or not.

[quote Cattermole]@PatriciaHolm that's what I mean. The hospital data is broken down by date and has a degree of context. The jump between NHS hospital-based data and "everything else" is so unaccountable - in the sense that there's no contextual information provided, not as in so weird - it's almost as if it's deliberately presented alarmingly.[/quote]
TBH, I don't think it's deliberately alarmingly, in reality I think it's more of a product of the fact we are trying to see data that just isn't, normally, collected like this. Normally data would be collated over weeks, and month/week summary data released weeks after it happened, with plenty of time to get data from multiple sources and verify it.

Now we've got ourselves into a situation where hundreds of varied data sources, that have never reported on a daily basis before, are being asked to feed into a daily number, which is just bonkers. And leads to wild swings on a daily basis, and periodic reevaluations when, for example, PHE has to remove deaths because they are already counted in the hospital deaths. We're asking a reporting system to do something, under pressure, it was never designed to do. So I don't think it's deliberate, its just not fit for what we want it to do.

But the point is that there are more deaths outside hospital apparently than inside. It isn’t just about number fluctuations which we get. How exactly is d this happening because there is no explanation of it at all

Willit sounds pretty similar then but with the extra union dementing going on 'down south' what joy it all is

Apparently it is not just us finding the BBC news bad, it has gone down in polls as being reliable etc by lots during this time.

Ok my big guess about the social distancing limit is that England will drop it to 1 m and Scotland will drop it to 1.5 m.
The reason I say this is because a helpful local counsellor from Edinburgh had posted minutes of a meeting about schooling and they had worked out how many pupils they could fit in at 2m and how many at 1.5m, but strangely not at 1m.

1.5m would also fit nicely into Nicola's narrative of being ever so much more cautious and different than England. Also conveniently means that DCs would be in for 50% of the time, thus meeting the target.Hopefully in this case she'll have underestimated the wrath of the voters realising that children will receive next to no education and parents will be unable to work.

For anyone interested in the data and when deaths actually occurred this chap has some excellent graphs and tables :

mobile.twitter.com/RP131

Apparently readership of the Times has increased in Scotland.

ooooh nearly forgot - a good thing ... dd1 got a £200 tax rebate!

I love Karol Sikora

One death reported today was from the 29th of March.

@Drivingdownthe101 That is one fantastic head teacher you have there.

Ds2's school sent out their weekly news thing this week- they are looking forward to welcoming students back on September 3rd, government guidelines permitting. So cautiously hopeful here.

Feeling the Sakora love after reading that article Thanks @Ibake

@rookiemere that's a good theory. She may even drop it to 1m at some point after too long and hope that parents will forget. I dont think I'll ever forget the unnecessary stress of this and just feeling like my job and kids are insignificant.

Thankyou @SomewhereEast, as our county is now 2 days without a confirmed case, I'm keeping all fingers and toes crossed that this means baby groups might be back on in the next couple of months. Having no antenatal classes has been a right arse as the alternative online "information" provided has been woeful! Actually, sod baby groups, somewhere I can sit down with my mum in a cafe and devour a cream tea is all I want