36 COVID fatalities reported today. We are on the way out of this 🌟🌟

[Jkslays]

36 reported fatalities today (weekend caveat), the lowest number since the day before lockdown was announced. 77 & 115 the last two Sundays for comparison

Mercifully, the human toll of this crisis is easing

I'm hopeful the trends will continue to improve

As reported by Professor Karol Sikora on Twitter

This is amazing news and surely our schools should be able to open as normal come September!

I'm waiting for 3 weeks time to see what the result of protest marches, raves, crowded beaches, social distancing a thing of the past since Cummings fiasco, rules relaxed or not being heeded before I jump for joy.

Do people actually believe the Government's massaged figures anyway?

@Sostenueto

I'm waiting for 3 weeks time to see what the result of protest marches, raves, crowded beaches, social distancing a thing of the past since Cummings fiasco, rules relaxed or not being heeded before I jump for joy.

Sadly deaths is a trailing indicator.

I think it will tell us we very nearly had the virus under control, until all the reasons you just mentioned.

But just to make everyone clear, this is still the first wave.

The second wave is a very different thing.

It's more the number of new cases you want to watch which is also going down but deaths isn't particularly relevant in measuring the virus spread. But I still agree that I THINK it's going in the right direction. Slightly worried that most think it's over and doing life as normal but trying to mind my own business and look to the future instead or dwelling on that

The number of cases is an irrelevance, as it is entirely dependent on the number of tests performed.

The death rate is the figure to watch. If the death rate can be assumed to be a fixed percentage of the number of infections - for example the virus kills 1% of people who get it - then by knowing the death rate, we can gather a proxy measure of how prevalent the virus is in the community.

It is more complicated than that though, as actually we are struggling to understand what percentage of people who catch it die from it - the Infection Fatality Rate. Some people are more susceptible than others, some may have some kind of inherent immunity, and it is very clear that most spread seems to be happening in health care settings and care homes. The scientists don't really know how the infection will spread amongst the community when lock down is eased.

There are many unknowns. What is known however, is that there is going to be an excess of deaths due to lockdown, from missed cancers, delayed diagnosis, suicides and the economic impact of the restrictions.

We are in a stronger position now than we were in March because then we didn't have testing, and there was a real shortage of PPE. I think we are closer to the end than the beginning but truthfully, I expect we are going to have to learn to live with the virus being in out midst and take precautions to protect ourselves. Each individual has their own risk level so this will need to be tailored accordingly.

I want to post my condolences to each and every one of the 36 families who lost a loved one

They are real and painful losses

No-one is allowed to have any glimmer of hope about this OP, didn’t you get the memo?

yes, the protests etc might bring about another spike, however the VE celebrations and people flocking to the beaches around a month ago haven’t, so there’s no knowing this will be any different.

Added to which, while the infection rates are still fairly consistent, the decreasing death rate can also be an indicator that the virus itself is weakening and that death is therefore less likely.

In Italy the virus is virtually non existent now, and there is a lot of talk even from the WHO that the virus is heading for burnout.

yes obviously we should be cautious but that doesn’t mean we can’t also be optimistic.

As for Neil ferguson, isn’t he the one who resigned having broken lockdown to go out and shag his lover? So actions do not match his words and he should probably just shut the fuck up.

I find it amazing that anyone who anticipates anything positive about this is summarily shouted down, while the glee with which people are almost willing a second wave is hideous.

The second wave is a very different thing

It certainly is. It is likely to be much less deadly than the first, for one thing.

The death rate is the figure to watch. If the death rate can be assumed to be a fixed percentage of the number of infections - for example the virus kills 1% of people who get it - then by knowing the death rate, we can gather a proxy measure of how prevalent the virus is in the community.

I’m not sure I quite agree with this as deaths don’t occur at a predictable rate after infection - there can be huge variability in how long people are ill and in ITU before they die.

I’d say hospital admissions are the one to watch as the most reliable indicator - they are absolutes (so won’t vary like testing figures based on number and place of test) and will happen at a reasonably predictable window of time after infection.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that second waves have been predicted for May (didn’t happen) July, (now been abandoned,) and most recently September.

But listening to some it’s clear they are eagerly anticipating a devastating second wave which is going to wipe out a huge number of the population.

How about just getting on with life in the realisation that we all have to die of something. People are so afraid of COVID now and dying from it (even though most won’t) that they’re not actually living any more.

‘ No-one is allowed to have any glimmer of hope about this OP, didn’t you get the memo? ’

I suspect not putting happy stars in a thread title referencing 36 deaths might have led to quite a different tone

The trend is pretty clear. Whichever day of the week you look at.

I think that people need to keep on following the rules and ignore what others "think"

If you want to go out and do non essential shopping ( which is essential to some like new mums who need to provide for babies etc) then do so. Because it's all within the rules.

People who are too scared to leave the house - dont. People who are waiting for second wave - wait for it. But dont scorn people who want to follow the rules.

So wait for live to get slowly back to a new normal, or wait for the economy to crash, or a recession or a second wave, or death. Whatever you need to do its all fine.

No one agrees and I want to follow the science. I dont think these debates help others mental health. So if your happy staying in crack on. If your not crack on. It's all good and no option is correct or wrong.

@BernardsarenotalwaysSaints

They aren't comparable tea. ONS has 148 people per square Km in Wales & it's 15 people per square Km in NZ according to the govt.nz website (so presumably reliable).

That's not a good comparison either though. Large amount of NZ is uninhabited so the density of population is in the towns & cities.

If Jacinta Arden has been the PM here, our death toll still wouldn't have been 22, but it would have been a hell of a lot lowered than it is.

The handling has been amazing.

@CountessFrog

I agree, though the infection rates seem to have remained around 1200-1500 per day.

Which I find confusing.

What’s confusing? It’s quite rare for people to die with it. Always has been.

But just to make everyone clear, this is still the first wave.
The second wave is a very different thing

@Newjez Just to make you clear - this is your opinion, not a fact, please don’t present it as such.

The second wave is a very different thing

I'm picturing you walking around the forums ringing a bell and wearing a t-shirt with the word 'DOOM' in capital letters on it.

No one knows that. The 2nd wave of the Spanish flu was far more deadly than the first but 100 years on we understand the reasons why very well. They don't apply to this virus. The virus here has been badly mismanaged. If cases start to rise again any time soon, there is far more knowledge about the benefits of implementing local lockdowns and using contact tracing to squash them before they spread too far. People are much better about washing their hands. The virus is stable and unlikely to mutate into anything more deadly. We have lots of reasons to be really positive.

Not at all a coincidence that the 'non essential' shops are opening today?

(Sneak the balance in later in the week)

People queueing from 4am outside primark.

The declining trend would be a good thing if the restrictions weren't being lifted as quickly as they are. Too much all at once (more kids in school, bubbles, recreational sports groupsPermitted, professional sports, shops Opening, public transport increases due to those things and very soon hospitality)

Not to mention allowing the demonstrations & the raves not being closed down

🌷to anyone who has lost someone or is currently going through the hell of a loved one ill with it or indeed ill themselves.

The restrictions are being lifted quickly enough imho

But hey ho...

Mercifully cancer doesn't usually kill you within two weeks and prevent your loved ones from being beside you.

What a dreadful thing to write. I know 2 people who have died of cancer during the pandemic. Both of them had weeks in hospital totally alone, they were suffering and knew they were dying and the hospitals only permitted someone in to sit with them in the last 24 hours to say goodbye because of the virus. One was in his 40s, one in her 30s. I have another friend who has spent many weeks in a hospice with zero visitors because of the virus. Aged 32. She's in a different country, but still.

For what it's worth, even before this virus I think large numbers of people - mostly elderly people - die alone. It's a very normal thing. For some people yes it is a very bad thing but some people would prefer to go that way and actively choose that (ask any hospice nurse). Lots of people don't get to say goodbye or to pass with loved ones sitting hovering around their bed. The point I'm just trying to make is it's not this tragedy which only relates to this virus.

And even this idea that every person who has died of the virus is some treasured love one leaving behind broken relatives. It's just not true. Lots of very elderly people have very lonely lives given nowadays people are kept alive years past when they would have otherwise passed away so there isn't an army of people to mourn them. I don't consider death to be a tragedy if someone has lingered for years and suffered or just existed. We have such an unnatural view of death in the Western world. It can be natural and timely. Some old people actively want to die - I know my grandad spent 10 years asking to die. We did not shed a tear when he finally passed away. He had a good life with lots of good things in it. I have other very elderly relatives now who, if they caught the virus and died, would be relieved because they've already spent many years battling cancer or pneumonia or serious injuries from accidents and they are ready to go. That's what they've expressed themselves.

Anyway, OP I too am delighted. It is so lovely to see things go in the right direction after so much sadness and worry. I hope the numbers continue to fall. I hope people will indeed go to Primark and spend a fortune treating themselves on new things. I can't wait to get my hair cut. We need to live because none of us knows what's ahead.

I think the government had to strike a balance over new cases, fatalities and economy.

From what I gather from this post some people are very happy and financially ok to stay in restricted measures which I think is single minded and ‘I’m alright jack’.

Much more people are really struggling financially and tbh I’d rather not lose my home or income and risk catching the virus ( which is on it’s way out)

The impact on the rest of society is so much more grim than the covid numbers. The amount of women and children killed by their partners in lockdown, the backlog in the justice system, people in agony waiting for all types of medical treatment and that’s before we have even started on the economic devastation and the suffering of so many due to job loss.
The focus needs to be on recovering society more widely now

But just to make everyone clear, this is still the first wave.
The second wave is a very different thing

Yes. Hopefully it will be much milder. That's if it materialises at all.