36 COVID fatalities reported today. We are on the way out of this 🌟🌟

[Jkslays]

36 reported fatalities today (weekend caveat), the lowest number since the day before lockdown was announced. 77 & 115 the last two Sundays for comparison

Mercifully, the human toll of this crisis is easing

I'm hopeful the trends will continue to improve

As reported by Professor Karol Sikora on Twitter

This is amazing news and surely our schools should be able to open as normal come September!

@MorrisZapp I know! How dramatic can you get! Even if the virus hasn’t fucked off, we need to get our heads round a ‘new normal’ which involves all the stuff we did before combined with the threat of a new illness. Can’t believe some of the OTT crap I read on these threads.

HannahStern

Not that low fgs

@mightbealittlebitmad love your post, mirrors my thinking but you have articulated it so much better than I could. Lots of the people I know who were all guns blazing for a lockdown in the beginning have started to realise we can’t keep this going much longer. Completely agree regarding the protests and riots too, people (especially young people) are bored and frustrated. You can’t lock society down and not expect repercussions, we ain’t in China.

Honestly can't believe the nonsense I'm reading here. This virus is not "burning out" or "dissapearing" You need to educate yourself.

This virus is not cancer, you don't catch cancer from a cough or a sneeze or breathing in air whilst talking to someone face to face. Mercifully cancer doesn't usually kill you within two weeks and prevent your loved ones from being beside you.

The rate of transmission has slowed because the vast majority of us have been in lockdown or physically distancing for months. The potential is there to eradicate the virus completely or to let it get completely out of control. If I had to make a prediction I'd say we'll stay somewhere in the middle for several more months.

Another reason why more people aren't dying is all the medical staff who are working to keep people alive, often not seeing their own families for months.

There are hundreds of articles on the science of what is happening in the world, try reading some of them.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/11/pandemic-scientists-second-wave-coronavirus

www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/

MiniMaxi, the Ferguson model made that prediction. It was a 13 year old model, based on a flu pandemic, assuming no asymptomatic cases, and no non susceptibility.

There are other models.

[quote MiniMaxi]@Khione yes sorry I mean “until there’s a vaccine or it dies out or it becomes obvious that actually most of us are miraculously immune etc”

I don’t disagree that the economic situation is shit but let’s not forget that the forecast fatalities without lockdown was nearly 500k with zero proof that herd immunity is actually a thing.[/quote]
The scientist behind those figures (147,000) was Neil Ferguson of ICL. You know the guy that insisted we needed lockdown and then days later had his married lover visit his home.

In March he admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus.

In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.

So I don't think his model is the most accurate or one that I want to follow.

sorry 470,000 not 170,000

I've never looked too deeply at number of deaths as an indicator. It's number of infections that is the number to look at. For those that have sadly died, that have in the main battled the virus for a number of weeks. They likely caught this some time ago. With the lifting of many restrictions the key is in number of infections especially as the weeks go on.
I try to be positive but it's been as disastrous as it can get.
And it goes without saying but every person that died from this awful disease (whether here or abroad) is a tragedy.

Say wha

My DH is on the frontline in ITU. Who are all these staff who didn’t see their family for ‘months.’

There were a couple on the news. It was hardly widespread. I know a lot, none of them were living apart from their family.

FWIW the number of cases in DH’s ITU is so low that the staff have largely been stood down and taken off rota.

So again, who are all of these medics currently working and living apart from their loved ones, to keep people alive?

If you insist on being so patronising, suggesting others ‘educate themselves’ then at least get your facts right.

@saywha I can quote you plenty of scientists and academics who disagree with the views of those you have quoted. You’ve picked those that reflect your own view point, there are plenty that don’t. There is every chance the virus will burn out or mutate into something less deadly, that is my opinion, based on my own research. It’s not fact, and neither is your opinion, however many scientists or studies you want to throw at us.

@PollyPolson

It took 10 days to go from 30 deaths to a 1000 in a day.

It has taken over 10 weeks to down from 1000 to 36 deaths in a day

No celebration here.

The pattern is pretty much the same in every country - exponential rise followed by plateau followed by linear fall

There are hundreds of articles on the science of what is happening in the world, try reading some of them

Yes, indeed, there are hundreds of articles on The Science, and you have chosen 3 which suit your preferences.

We could all do that.

I highly doubt you're in a position to 'educate' anyone here. I agree with a PP, you sound incredibly patronising.

Comparison with previous Covid deaths on Sunday

22 March - 35
29 March - 214
5 April - 644
12 April - 686
19 April - 498
26 April - 420
3 May - 315
10 May - 268
17 May - 170
24 May - 441
31 May - 115
7 June - 77
14 June - 36

@saywha and also, did you actually just state that ‘mercifully cancer doesn’t kill you in 2 weeks’. One of the sickest things I’ve read on these threads, if there’s one thing that cancer isn’t it’s merciful. But could be worse, at least it’s not Covid 19.

I know weekend figures are always lower but nonetheless it’s encouraging that numbers are coming down. However, the WHO’s director for Europe has warned England lockdown should not be further lifted until the government’s contact-tracing system has proven to be robust and effective and that the UK remained in a very active phase of the pandemic.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/14/who-cautions-against-further-lifting-lockdown-england?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Countessfrog ...your husband is lucky where he works !! There has been a massive increase in our local ITU with covid cases..we live in the south!!

According to the cv19 self reporting app there's 4900 new cases today.

I'm not celebrating nor relaxing my self preservation practices

You'd be forgiven for thinking that no-one before this ever died and we all simply lived forever.

I am absolutely sick of the assertion that only those who have died from covid matter.

And we are in the north, Grandmi.

Where are you? Because I cannot see many places with R rate above 1.

Apart from Christchurch, where it’s 1.0

So why the massive increase in ITU?

TheGreatWave hear bloody hear.

My dad died horribly of Alzheimer's not long ago. I'll spare you the details but they weren't pretty. What's happening to our relatives with dementia at the moment is a fucking scandal. But no, sadly Civid deaths are all that matter .

Someone on MN who was diagnosed with leukaemia during lockdown was actually told by someone "at least it's not Covid " 😯

@jasjas1973

Guessing you might be working from home or something and not looking forward to having to do a full days work again?

Too fucking right! i have no intention of returning to my old working life, VR for me and a new beginning.

Oh well at least your sorted eh?...

Very encouraging figures

@user1487194234

Very encouraging figures

definitely

Mercifully cancer doesn't usually kill you within two weeks and prevent your loved ones from being beside you.

No words can describe how utterly awful and ignorant that statement is. Cancer is anything but merciful.

that the forecast fatalities without lockdown was nearly 500k with zero proof that herd immunity is actually a thing
We couldnt trust Ferguson ro predict the time in half an hour. He has been so far out with his predictions every bloody time you need a telescope to see them yet he gets trundled out again and again. Anyone in actual business making these cock ups would have bern sacked but he is reaping the benefits of this debaucle.