I don't think 'we' should rush to denounce scientists as a group though (we, meaning society as a whole - the women on this thread are far too sensible!) I fear that when if it does turn out the Imperial model was bullshit and it comes to light, there will be such appalled outrage, that mistrust of science will get even worse than it is already. What's really at fault is government and press interpretation and presentation of "science", which is not a set of answers.
I totally agree.
It's important that scientists can make recommendations based on what the believe will happen, free from fear about the personal consequences to them if they are wrong.
I think the problem with Ferguson is a pattern of headline grabbing "worst case scenarios" where he courts the press and builds his own reputation on saving the world from dangers he essentially made up.
It literally is Lisa Simpson's Tiger Rock with him. The fact that he has done it so many times now is worth paying attention to.
Why are this white man's models preferred over the less dramatic models of Sunetra Gupta at Oxford? 🤔
The incentives for scientists to over-egg predictions are pretty clear.
But it is the politicians that have the responsibility for choosing policy. The idea that they should do nothing but follow "the" science is anathema in a democracy.