Anti Dementors Party with Patronii

[LilacTree1]

Are you out there, my lovelies?

@LilacTree1 he must know what his Mum is posting. He follows our page so he must be able to see it.

I’m going to have a chat with our accountant to see where we stand regarding the furlough payments. We have work for him, no health conditions that requires him to shield (that he’s made us aware of) and they have no children - I’m not sure that really entitles him to be on furlough

@countrygirl99 - I had a word with myself a while ago with DD riding. She’s been to the beach, cross country, hacking, and all the scare-the-shit-out-of-your-mum stuff she’s always done. She’s much happier for it - and stayed out of A&E for horse related incidents

Sorry to hear you’ve been made redundant lilac tree, that won’t help your mh issues I’m sure.
No words of advice, just thinking of you
Keep ranting that’s what I’m doing.

You will be posting your perfect family bubble if you send your children back to school

popping not posting!

Oh FFS DominaShantotto Derbyshire is a bit close to home (literally less than a mile away!). Hoping our LEA doesn’t follow suit.

Dunelm Mill have reopened all their stores! I'm going on Tues. Can't wait.

Just got demented at on Facebook. On a group I’m in a few folk were questioning the feasibility of blended learning in Scotland for the next 12-18 months (get that straight to fuck) and I said why are they proposing this for so long? Is there literally no other plan, no testing and tracing, no working out a way of living alongside this virus?

BECAUSE IF ONE PRIMARY TEACHER GETS IT SHE WILL INFECT 300 PEOPLE.

Ok dementor 👌🏻

I'm going to say something a bit controversial....but I am too scared to say it elsewhere but I know this is a safe space.

I don't think there will be a horrendous second peak or wave or whatever.

Look at all the countries that have come out of lockdown, yes infection went up but not massively. This would be expected.
The virus can only infect so many people.
I know we have all been out and about more and a bit more lax but proportionately cases are falling.

springer I understand about the scare the shit out of your mum stuff. My son used to go XC schooling at Keysoe and I would have my hands over my eyes as his 15h cob sailed over BE Novice fences.

I agree LivinLaVidaLoki. There will be waves, of course, just like with all viruses. But a second peak like we’ve already experienced? Unlikely.

I think the same, Loki, a rise but not a sharp peak. And frankly we need the rise to be now, when hospitals are half empty, not in several months time when the normal winter pressure on the NHS starts up.

Also I love your username.

If we don’t have a second peak I wonder what the dementors will move on to? They’re just loving shouting that WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE.

I agree @LivinLaVidaLoki

I guess we’re lucky that we can observe what happens in Italy, Spain, France. But fuck, I really hope that if things start to look better then we can be sensible and not be forced to wfh longterm.

He's too old for me but I love Jonathan Sumption. Agree with his views 100% on this.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/jonathan-sumption-a-response-to-my-critics-on-lockdown

Liking this graphic from a bbc news item today on children and the virus

On the second wave thing, no I don't think so either... maybe it could be a manageable flow rather than another peak..

as it mentions here medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

if you scroll down it shows how it can be kept in line a bit while not eliminated - but doesn't mean a second wave

Surely the next target of dementors will be around the ecomony.

Although just in relation to the graphic I posted above I’m not sure why they have to make one of the categories 15-44! Surely it should be more like 15-29, 30-44

@countrygirl99 out of everything, it’s the XC that scares me. I don’t like the fixed fences

She had me videoing her jumping groynes at the beach at the weekend. All you can hear in the video is me swearing. I found it so hard to watch. I had to make sure she muted it before posting it on Instagram, my language was filthy 😂

Well the little welsh sh1t first minister is adamant he is not budging on lockdown yet, will revisit next week.

A friend is breaking cover next week travelling from Wales to England to stay with their daughter, she is in an awful state so mental health trumps Cardiff wittering.

There will be some people that catch it once lockdown ends, but what some people don't seem to grasp is that, say each infected person infects 2 others, then they also infect two more each, you have an exponential growth.
This is what was happening at the start of the pandemic.
However as more people, are exposed, they develop immunity, with or without symptoms. There are also (I personally believe) a percentage of the population with natural immunity prior to any exposure.
So the new infected person doesn't come into contact with as many susceptible people as they would have initially, so they don't infect 2 more, and the curve degrades.
Most people only tend to come into contact with a finite number of others, even on public transport, it's the same group of people using it in general.
It isn't cordyceps, it doesn't take over our brains and force is to wander the UK licking suceptible people.
But no, anyone who hasn't displayed symptoms yet will inevitably be on a ventilator within days.

@MarcelineMissouri 4,160 deaths in my group against 17.14 millions in this banding. I'll take those odds.

I don't think there will be a horrendous second peak or wave or whatever.

I'm not sure about horrendous, but looking back at other pandemics a 2nd or 3rd wave, using Drivingdown's term, seems possible. Looking at the graphs for many places' 1918-19 experiences wave 2 was the strong one and wave 3 often greater than wave 1. Not that this will necessarily happen with the current pandemic, but who knows?

Whether there are subsequent waves is to my mind down to the virus - it's nature and how it evolves - far more than how we respond by street-partying through to entombing ourselves. We can do things to modify the impact, but if it IS going to slosh around the bath, or turn endemic, that's just how things will be.

In the UK we have acted as if something that disproportionately hits the old old, those with diabetes, COPD, hypertension and so on is a serious risk to everyone. It isn't. Those off the risk list might have a bad roll of the dice, but it's a long shot. [Not that it can't be an unpleasant and scary thing to have, it certainly wasn't a fun thing to experience when we had it.]

I'd like us in the meantime to sensibly get on with life, not cause health, economic and social damage by overreacting and responding in ways that don't target those at risk and see how it all plays out.

Useful graphic Marceline. Is there a median age published for UK fatalities? I haven't seen a recent one, but did see something a while back suggesting numbers in the low 80s for cities in the USA.