Potential storm Wednesday 10th- Thursday 11th [title edited by HQ]

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

For a few days now GFS has been consistently showing a storm heading for northern Scotland mid week next week. It has varied in intensity and location somewhat, but for this time out it has been quite remarkable in its consistency. ECMWF agrees with the genesis of the storm, but has a different location of centre and therefore also strength.

A deep low pressure is forecast to develop somewhere between Iceland and Northern Scotland. at present it is shown as a complex low with a wide influence. For most of us it looks to be a windy and perhaps quite wet day but at present it looks relatively nasty for those in Scotland, with subzero temperatures and perhaps severe gales, leading to the potential for blizzards.

Its still someway off and so I do expect the details to change. If it comes further south as per the current ECMWF then there could also be a snow risk to hilly parts of northern England too.

[grumpyoldgitagain]

Fingers crossed it comes a bit lower down and we all get some lovely snow

[grumpyoldgitagain]

Although I'm not too fussed about the gales

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think this one can stay off in Iceland, whilst I adore snow, I wouldnt wish for the conditions shown for Scotland. I'd like a nice set of streamers coming from the NE blowing far inland. They can dump loads without being all destructive.

[Bunbaker]

Fingers crossed we don't grumpy. DD has mock GCSEs that week and I would like them to be over and done with before Christmas.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Latest model run gives a pretty wild day still on Wednesday the 10th for Scotland.

[Ginfox]

Thanks for starting the thread, lovely Kitten.

Destructive winds relatively common up here, but could do without the blizzards. Wouldn't mind nice gentle snow, but it's generally too windy and coastal to settle here anyway.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You are welcome Ginfox.
I think its fairly certain the storm will happen, but the uncertainty is the strength and exact areas it will affect. It looks pretty potent tonight.

[oricella]

Thanks, will keep an eye out for that... and Sunday's snow: looks like we're in for a fair bit of weather after the calmness of the last weeks

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

snow warning thread

It does look like winter has arrived for you.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Have to say I'm wincing a little when ever I look at the charts for Wednesday.

The UKMO data is down for me at present so I'm relying on ECMWF and GFS.
It looks potentially very windy even by Scotland's usual standards with perhaps blizzards over the northern half of Scotland and further south over higher ground. GFS is being much more gung ho about it than ECMWF. GFS has severe gales, ECMWF much less so so we need to wait until closer to the time for more accuracy.

I'm fairly certain that the met office will be putting out early warnings.

[Ginfox]

OYBBK I think you should develop your own scale of weather severity. Where would "wincing" be on a scale of 1-10? Assuming 1= bored, nothing happening, and 10= hands covering eyes, occasionally peering through fingers.

Would it be fair to say that if you are "wincing", I should probably be crapping myself?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Wincing would be a 7/8! Based on the current gfs. ECMWF - it would be a 4.

It's not an unusual storm for Scotland, similar to some of the ones you had last winter, but following such a quiet period it could be a bit of a shock.
Wouldnt be a scottish fisherman though!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

No change in the latest run. GFS still has a rather nasty old storm bringing in severe gales and blizzards for some. I think that there could be coastal flooding in the western isles too.

I'm going to ask mn to change the title to Wednesday/Thursday.

[GloriaSmud]

It's quite interesting watching what the GFS thinks the low will do after the main battering on Wednesday/ Thursday ~ it has it sitting in the North Sea for a bit as if it's deciding what to do next!

[Ginfox]

Thanks for updates OYBBK. Coastal flooding you say?

[marne2]

I saw a link today on fb that indicates very high tides for the west ( mainly nw) of England, not sure how true or accurate this is? I'm right down south, we rarely get any snow so I'm not holding out much hope in anything reaching us.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Marne it does seem likely that the tides will be very high. I think NW coasts, western Irish coasts and western Scotland should be prepared.

[MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig]

Does it look like it might come East?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

The tides? I dont think so.

magic seaweed is a good place for surf forecasts which can give you an idea if you couple in the wind direction.

Lowland levels, especially on the west coast shouldnt be too concerned about snow on wednesday. Higher, it is still possible and is probable in the mountains I think (despite the met office not showing any).On thursday colder air digs in and snow seems quite likely perhaps even into northern England.

However it is the wind that is the main issue on Wednesday, gusting to 80mph+ in the west, coupled with potential coastal flooding along the western coast (also western coasts of Ireland and NI) The storm will be long lasting and continue to influence the weather through thursday, with the winds slow to die down..

I think that says everything I meant to! (got up an hour early this morning to get all of the forecasting done, but I'm still a bit woolly!)

[Perihelion]

Windy Wilson ( Scottish weather guru ) has just posted that this storm's low could be 940mb... Hurricane Bawbag in Dec 2011 was 956mb [shoock]

Yelllow wind warning out already for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England.

[Perihelion]

That should be ......

[MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig]

OYBBK you know you're a star.

I'm on the Suffolk coast and we suffered in the tide surges last time. Don't want that back again. A bit of snow though would be lovely!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

He's probably right Peri. Good spot on the weather warnings.

[ouryve]

Well the warning area comes down to us and the wind levels are forecast to be bloody Nora on the badkitten scale, here, so goodness knows what it'll be like further north

[Perihelion]

Hopefully we'll get a red warning if it's bad. This really helped with Bawbag, as schools, council buildings etc were shut and the police warned against going out or travelling. No one died, even though the strongest winds ( in Edinburgh ) were in the afternoon..........Someone christening the storm with a ridiculous name probably helped too, as everyone stayed in, trying to out twitter each other with Bawbag/wind jokes.

Windy Wilson is fab and a great source of travel news/disruption as well as weather for Scotland. ( obv not a s fab as OYBBK )