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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

(967 Posts)
BigChocFrenzy Mon 08-Jun-20 19:35:37

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

OP’s posts: |
blodynmawr Mon 08-Jun-20 20:02:49

Thanks for the new thread bcf smile

Mybrowneyedgal Mon 08-Jun-20 20:13:08

Long time lurker. Thank you to all the contributors on these threads for helping to keep me sane and grounded.

FATEdestiny Mon 08-Jun-20 20:18:21

Checking in

oldbagface Mon 08-Jun-20 20:30:05

Marking my place. Not finnished the last thread yet. Thank you for this and keeping me calm

NeurotrashWarrior Mon 08-Jun-20 20:52:45

Checking in, thanks.

Just seen this:

https://www.axios.com/who-coronavirus-asymptomatic-patients-08d84e31-1846-44d8-8fe1-2343ff850764.html

NeurotrashWarrior Mon 08-Jun-20 20:53:18

WHO: Data suggests it's "very rare" for coronavirus to spread through asymptomatics

Prokupatuscrakedatus Mon 08-Jun-20 21:07:11

How do they know this?

peridito Mon 08-Jun-20 21:11:48

Contact tracing

We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing. They’re following asymptomatic cases. They’re following contacts. And they’re not finding secondary transmission onward. It’s very rare.

itsgettingweird Mon 08-Jun-20 21:15:37

Evening! Fell off last threads. Busy here with working more and more and mum in hospital. (Not Covid)

We are seeing more and more difference in weekend recording and weekday but I think cases are dropping still?

Slight rise in admissions last week I thought?

That's interesting re asymptomatic cases not transmitting.

NeurotrashWarrior Mon 08-Jun-20 21:17:11

Although I thought the point about mask wearing was that it reduces presymptomatic spread?

itsgettingweird Mon 08-Jun-20 21:17:17

Do asymptomatic people develop antibodies?
That's the real game changer. Because if they don't pass it but develop immunity surely it helps slow transmission?

NeurotrashWarrior Mon 08-Jun-20 21:19:12

I'm not sure; I suppose they can? Or it's the T cells.

Vaccines stimulate the immune system but you may not get any symptoms.

tootyfruitypickle Mon 08-Jun-20 21:26:20

Mask wearing helps if you’re pre symptomatic - might go on to have symptoms

Hedgehog26 Mon 08-Jun-20 21:44:30

Is there a difference between being a symptomatic and presymptomatic?

OhTheRoses Mon 08-Jun-20 21:51:25

Marking place. Super thread series. Thank you.

StrawberryJam200 Mon 08-Jun-20 22:12:36

Yes l@Hedgehog26, pre = before you start to have symptoms, asymptomatic means you've got it and never have symptoms.

ListeningQuietly Mon 08-Jun-20 22:18:41

Rather impressive assumptions in here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52968523
or should I say scare mongering hysteria to justify their next grant round.

PatriciaHolm Mon 08-Jun-20 22:47:55

ListeningQuietly

Rather impressive assumptions in here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52968523
or should I say scare mongering hysteria to justify their next grant round.

Indeed. Essentially it seems to say "we said 500,000 would die if we didn't lock down, they didn't, so we were right!"

Quarantino Mon 08-Jun-20 22:56:04

pre = before you start to have symptoms, asymptomatic means you've got it and never have symptoms.

Yet you don't know which it is grin. You've either got it, not got it, or about to get it! Act accordingly!

BigChocFrenzy Mon 08-Jun-20 22:58:48

"Is there a difference between being a symptomatic and presymptomatic?"

Yes, hedgehog "presymptomatic" will eventually have COVID symptoms and then be infectious.
They should have some degree of immunity afterwards

"asymptomatic" never will have symptoms and studies suggest they have only a low chance of being infectious.
They may or may not have immunity

OP’s posts: |
BigChocFrenzy Mon 08-Jun-20 23:06:15

The 500,000 was also Chris Whitty's "reasonable worst case", using 80% infection rate and up to 1% death rate
- no sophisticated modelling their, just his simple back of the envelope multiplication

With a novel virus and carnage in N Italy, there was too little to go on and no responsible government could ignore such an estimation from their CMO

In Germany, we had a "leaked" worst case estimate from the Ministry of Health of 1 million dead, but no official death estimate,
just Merkel quoting the 70% infected that her virologists said was worst case

Lockdown was a pause button to get enough of the missing information and to build up systems and the most effective measures to cope.

Lockdown was a blunderbus, because scientists didn't know what would work.

Now they do and measures are targeted
Well, not yet in the UK, which is weeks behind and a dollar short ....

OP’s posts: |
Hedgehog26 Mon 08-Jun-20 23:07:02

Sorry, I should of been clearer in my question. Is there a difference with regards to testing between the two? Would asymptomatic show up on a test but pre symptomatic wouldn’t? And both would show on an antibody test? Or is that something we just don’t know yet

BigChocFrenzy Mon 08-Jun-20 23:14:10

Asymptomatic cases have been found in swab tests (positive, but never any symptoms later)
- although we don't know how many of those were false positives !

We don't know whether they would produce antibodies - evidence suggests even mild cases may not produce enough
However, they may fight off symptoms via T cells, which could be detected in a blood test.

Pre-symptomatic might be positive in swab tests, but probably haven't produced any / significant amount of antibodies yet

OP’s posts: |
Chaotic45 Mon 08-Jun-20 23:30:38

Wonderful threads thank you.

Surely now that we have huge numbers of people being tested for covid and a reliable antibody test (and therefore a large bank of data), we will be able to build up a clear picture as to whether asymptomatic people develop antibodies?

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