Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

hospital admissions down again and even Wales is possibly improving.

Is there a graph for hospital admissions?

Some interesting data being compiled as healthcare workers are being tested for antibodies. A significant number of confirmed positive cases are coming back negative for antibodies. Many early cases in very frontline cases who had basic PPE seem to have had cellular response. Suggesting, something that has long been suspected by many healthcare frontline, that chronic exposure to common viral pathogens ( common cold ) results in a very good cellular response. Basically being treated to the contents of people’s mouths and stomachs needs up your immune system.
Lack of antibodies does not mean you lack immunity, many of these HCP will have continued to work frontline but not reported reinfection.

*needs - beefs

According to Tim Spector many antibodies disappearing by 3 months.

@greygardens88

here you go. ignore the horizontal axis numbers, I forgot to add in proper dates but it goes up to today. Jaggy lines is announced numbers, straighter one is 7 day average.

"According to Tim Spector many antibodies disappearing by 3 months"

Do you have a link to that ?

For those that have an antibody response, not T cells, but then lose a lot of these antibodies,
does it mean they only have partial immunity after a few months ?

HCPs need to be tested for T cell response too, as we can't just assume this

All blood tests should test for this as well as antibodies
We need to collect this information

However, the information we do have - cases & deaths falling for weeks - should be enough for the #1 priority in relaxing measures:
reopening schools - far more important than pubs & restaurants

People can easily eat & drink at home, but very difficult for most kids to get an adequate education at home

Nick Stripee@NickStripe*_ONS

Deaths registered w/e 29 May (E&W)

This was another bank holiday (Mon 25 May) affected week

As a result, we expected to see a reduction in the number of deaths registered.
We also hoped to see a drop in the % that deaths remained above the 5-yr weekly average
1/n

There were 9,824 deaths registered, 20% fewer than the week before

This was 1,653 “excess” deaths above the 5-yr weekly average

= 20% above what we’d expect in this week of the year,
down from 24% above the week before
2/n
.....
Deaths in hospitals
were 1% below the 5-yr wkly avg
– excluding CV they would have been 27% below

Deaths in care homes
were 49% above 5-yr avg
– excl CV they would have been 7% above

Deaths in private homes
were 45% above 5-yr avg
– excl CV they would have been 42% above
5/n
....
Some deaths that might normally occur in hospitals have been occurring in private homes and care homes

Our analysis of excess deaths in March & April, published last Friday, showed an increase in deaths from many causes outside hospitals
6/n

the #1 priority in relaxing measures: reopening schools - far more important than pubs & restaurants

I cannot agree more. Unfortunately, there is so much paranoia in the UK about sending children to school that both parents and many teachers (let alone teachers' unions) seem to be doing everything they can to fight school re-opening.

My 3 year old DD has returned to time nursery this week (on a part time basis). She didn't need to - we have got a full time nanny - however I feel the benefits of socialisation for her clearly outweigh any remote risks of C19. However I am in the minority. Some of my friends think DH and I have gone mad and do not care about our child.

SD rules have to be relaxed first. Which means across all sectors.

It's a huge jigsaw puzzle.

Schools are different though in how they present.

Shops etc must have SD. They are limiting 30 people in store - some stores are same size as 6-8 classrooms.

Classrooms have 30 people approx.

Shops people are moving and in there for short periods.

Classrooms they are in there for minimum 4-5 hours a day.

This is about how transmission occurs rather than current infection rates.

wintertravel Schools here (Germany) returned 4 May (2 states iirc on 20 April)

The schools were discussing plans for several weeks beforehand with the local authorities & unions.
They got everything signed off

Both staff and students could choose to wear PPE - that reassured a lot of teachers, imo, especially those with health conditions.
It helps that school hygiene & facilities have always been pretty good, but there is frequent deep cleaning
As much extra money was pumped in as needed - because schools were an urgent priority

Schools mixed pt learning with online to get the full week
All forms have now rotated in at some stage
It doesn't help parents get back to work, but the focus was on the kids getting back to education and catching up.

Nurseries, kindergartens and childcare open too since 1 June - and will continue through the summer vacation
That at last has helped working parents

All that and no significant # cases in schools in all those weeks

Schools will probably open ft in late August after the vacation:

Opinion poll showed that 58% of parents want this, 34% don't
So probably attendance will be optional until EOY

Yes, I know that 9,000 deaths in an 83 million pop means people aren't so worried and also the German govt authorities have earned a lot of public confidence,
but you deal with the situation you have, govt cockups and all, not the perfect situation you would like to have.

Schools mixed pt learning with online to get the full week
All forms have now rotated in at some stage
It doesn't help parents get back to work, but the focus was on the kids getting back to education and catching up.

Yes that's what a number of primary schools in the U.K. are doing now.

We aren't Germany though, very different education system and I note their day is from 7:30/8:00 to 12:00/1:30. I've heard of schools doing similar for Corvid in some cases here, but it's not the norm. (Gosh I'd love a whole afternoon to plan and prepare every day! That would help the retention crisis. I'd also be able to pick my own kids up earlier.) I believe the teachers could have ppe in Germany? Glasses etc?

It's also interesting to note that class sizes and teacher ratios are much lower in Germany, that will help a lot. And they start age 6, so year 1 here.

I wonder if the government are ready for a major education overhaul? I wonder if parents are?

How accurate is this random google?

In primary school, the average class size in German public schools is 21 students, while the average size in the UK is 27 and 22 in the US. In public secondary schools, Germany has a student-to-teaching-staff ratio of 14, while that ratio is 24 in the UK and 16 in the US.

A big problem here is that school is used as and seen as childcare. Many parents (especially many mothers, I know a lot) do fit their hours into the school day. That's a significant reason as to why there are so many threads about the schools right now.

We will have to change the mindset of many.

Berlin breaks up on the 24th until the beginning of August.
And like BigCoc said, schools, which all have to have a hygiene plan anyway, have added to it with regards to the virus and had that plan signed off by school and health authorities. Pupils and parents had to hand a signed slip back in to show they've read it.
DS wears a N95 mask to and in school - his choice, there are additional hand cleaning stations apart from the classroom sinks.
(Historically most schools in cities like Berlin, Dresden, the Ruhr area are not older than 75 years - so new building standards have been applied.)

There been cases of appalling hygiene plans in some schools. Luckily my own lea created risk assessments and issued their own guidance. Someone in a school I know of had been given anti bacterial spray!

Yet more issues with the decentralisation of the education system here.

Pre- and after school childcare (Berlin) is done via a hort-system and means tested. You state in a form why you need it, how many hours and schow proof of income ( the less you earn the less you pay). If places are short, job seekers, people in full time education and single parents are preferred. After school care just because you fancy it has to be paid out of your own pocket.
Both DC have been in this system during their primary years.

Is it on school premises or elsewhere? Is that back up too?

This is our problem, for coronavirus and also for the retention crisis:

(It's gone up a little in the U.K. now, 28.)

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/10/britain-has-biggest-primary-school-classes-developed-world-report/

I had a class of 21 once, in the early 2000s. With a TA half the week, deprived area, two children with major behavioural issues. It was amazing. When some were off with bugs etc, it went down to 17 once. That's when I felt I could truly teach well.

Who knows; with smaller class sizes maybe progress would be better?

Does anyone know how many people have been hospitalised in the uk in total? Or where I can find this out?

Schools mixed pt learning with online to get the full week

All you have to do is read the gazillions of school threads to know that the prospect of this is one of the biggest complaints.

I don't think MN is remotely representative of most parental attitudes but there is a significant group who will not accept that as a definition of schools returning.

There is a much larger number of SAHMs in Germany, too (Kaffee, Kinder, Kuchen...), so pt schooling easier to manage, economically and logistically.

Neurotrash The class size is correct

Difficult to say about the teacher ratio:

Kids only start school at 6 to just 7 and are expected to be independent wrt toilet, changing etc
Controversial in the UK, but kids in Germany - and Switzerland, Austria - with SEN or anything else requiring more than average teacher time go to separate specialised schools

So that's 400,000 kids requiring more care who go to schools with much higher teacher ratio

Yes, the normal school hours make it easier to return, as most schools close at lunchtime and kids eat elsewhere.
So that avoids the complications of the lunch issue that UK schools have to plan for

Prokup N95 ! - but if it makes him feel secure about returning to school, then whatever works
The freedom of choice about PPE is so important to reassure staff & kids - and parents

My former colleague (> 100k) & his wife paid €110 per month per child for ft childcare before his DC started school
May be a lot more in other states, but I don't think it's as expensive as the UK anywhere

"a definition of schools returning"

It's not, but the mix of pt and organised online learning is education - priority #1
A gym pal said that the online part is simultaneous at her school at least, so the 2 halves of the class are taught at the same time - must be very demanding for the teacher, but it is working.
With dropping assemblies & fun stuff, they are catching up on the backlog

With childcare now back ft in my area, parents can get back to work from end June - priority #2

We expect ft schools here after the vacation; what about Berlin, Prokopatus ?