Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

neurotrash I went to school in prehistoric times with classes of 35-40, but that worked because the system then was totally different - no group work:
every child sat at a separate desk, no talking and the teacher stayed mostly at the front, talking & writing on the board
It would actually fit v well now wrt infection control, but neither staff nor students are used to it.

Excellent discussion on Radio 4 right now.

"Where was the nightingale plan for schools?"

Precisely.

Big choc, I'm in an SEN school and controversially don't agree with blanket inclusion. Inclusion isn't a black and white thing. It works extremely well if it's understood properly.

Many of those pupils with Sen in mainstream are suffering. Though ours can't all be in at all, we have a much more pastoral approach due to much smaller classes and teachers who all have a lot more expertise with their learning styles and needs.

Under funding in send is also a shit show here.

( I know a very few friend's children who are in school at the moment and don't have any major behavioural difficulties, are in part time as they're Sen and also parents are KW, and they're loving are loving the smaller class sizes.)

Thread reviewing asymptomatic research etc,
threader.app/thread/1269359663591510016

Interesting point from thread and focus of more research ^
And why people can go w/o symptoms is unknown. Many theories: cross-reactive coronavirus antibodies, cellular immunity, less nasal ACE expression, non-type A blood, genomics time.com/5848949/covid-19-asymptomatic-spread/ … @TIME
www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/health/coronavirus-blood-type-genetics.html … @NYTScience ^

Mumsnet stats has just been mentioned on BBC More or Less.

Apparently people on here are ahead of the curve when it comes to analysing the stats!!

Talking about the doubling time and how people on MN picked up it was different to what was being talked about.

A gym pal said that the online part is simultaneous at her school at least, so the 2 halves of the class are taught at the same time - must be very demanding for the teacher, but it is working. is that primary or secondary?

My son's primary school are doing this as obviously it's not always the actual teacher teaching the year group. So a member of staff (eg often a TA) is following the same as what is set for home, word for word.

And some parents are still not happy!

And yes, starting school later makes a big difference to numbers. And also, parental expectations. Parents and teachers here expect their 6 year olds to be proficient writers simply as they've had an extra year or two in perceived formal education.

Ooh I'll have to listen to more or less.

I wonder if they'll do a stats check on school class sizes, numbers etc compared to the EU?

On blended learning (and I don't want to start a bun fight otherwise I'd post on a school thread), I think it should have been the plan for this term (at least for primary) to get as many children as possible some school time before the summer. Or at least some sort of part time/rota to get all years in. Pain in the arse for working parents but many could work round it esp those with understanding employers (more likely now than Sept) or furloughed. This current system of some years in full time (with no wrap around in most cases) only helps a few.

However I don't feel blended learning should be the default position come next academic year (again at least in primary, secondary is more difficult) as is the position of the Scottish government and seemingly the Welsh gov and some unions. Yes it should be planned for and I mean properly planned for and invested in but it should be the back up. The government (with the teaching unions and local councils) should be planning for plan A being kids in full time (with necessary adjustments).

Nobody knows what the situation will be august/September but various groups want to disrupt education for longer based on what's happening now, not what might be the case then. I'm afraid sunk cost fallacy will mean if part time learning is the plan, they will push on regardless. In the meantime pubs and golf are at least on the surface more important than education.

Rant over (sorry for derail)

@chomalungma they said that posters on Reddit, Twitter, and Mumsnet had pointed out that the UK could not be a month behind Italy, as claimed by the government. And then the other presenter said 'never argue with Mumsnet'

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000jw02

1:30 to 3:05

Could be referring to this post here:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3846242-Gobsmacked-by-UK-response?messages=100&pg=1 by @nellodee

Thankyou for all this info

Littlebelina I agree
pt school, even with online learning for ft eduction, should only be for a transition period before the vacation.
imo, it was necessary here, to reassure parents & teachers that it wouldn't significantly increase cases.

However, kids need the routine of ft school after the vacation - so do parents ! -
and teachers must also be finding the blended education is a lot more work & stress for them.

Teachers here have done themselves a lot of good in the public eye,
but national & local government took responsibility and worked with them & the unions the whole time,
instead of trying to shift blame onto them

@BigChocFrenzy Tim Spector tweeted yesterday about antibodies disappearing at 3 months, been testing 500 twins and staff. Not sure if will write it up.

And then the other presenter said 'never argue with Mumsnet

But if some form of social distancing is still required in September, part-time blended schooling will still need to happen as students and teachers will spend too much time too close together if they go back as " normal"
The only alternative would be to invest massively in some kind of 'nightingale' schools project. I'm not sure the government would be prepared to do this?

Thanks, whatnext I've just read his post
Excellent use of the massive Twins study for Covid.

Does anyone have info about the effect of disappearing antibodies on immunity ?
The poster wrote "negative, no immunity"
Does this really mean such people don't have immunity, or maybe they still have partial ?

Would people have any immunity from T cells, if they produced antibodies ?

"if some form of social distancing is still required in September"

SD might just be optional PPE,
plus continuing deep cleans and frequent hand-cleaning

At least, it's what I hear in Germany

Concerning about antinbodies disappearing so quickly, because that poster had sympoms for 8 weeks,
so not exactly mild

T cell process is complicated, some evidence that covid works by depleting them in some people which leads to cytokine storm.
www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.00827/full?utm_source=S-TWT&utm_medium=SNET&utm_campaign=ECO_FIMMU_XXXXXXXX_auto-dlvrit

Unless German schools have changed in the last fortnight they are still having smaller groups in classes in order to socially distance.
www.dw.com/en/world-in-progress-new-challenges-for-german-schools-in-the-pandemic/av-53513245

T cells require vitamin D to activate, it is known that levels drop during illness and that vitamin D levels are lower in those who have severe Covid-19. (see previous threads for research). It's criminal that vitamin D supplementation still does not seem to be trialled.

Still not clear if high levels of "asymptomatic" patients are pre symptomatic or false negative tests. The fact that some have clinical damage on x-ray suggests that at least initially tests were inaccurate.

Artis ft schooling in Germany is only planned after the summer vacation
It is only childcare that can resume ft from 2 June - and some places may only build up to ft just before the vacation

The hours combined for school and online learning may combine atm for ft education
without the fun things & frills
especially since the German schoolday is generally shorter anyway

think it should have been the plan for this term (at least for primary) to get as many children as possible some school time before the summer. Or at least some sort of part time/rota to get all years in.

I do think some schools will attempt this. Even if to touch base with the pupils. One big issue is that the KW numbers have increased as of last week.