Mumsnet is now backing Reform UK - survey

[IwantToRetire]

The ladies are for turning after all – as a new survey reveals that one in five of the politically engaged mothers on the social networking site are ready to pledge allegiance to Nigel Farage

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/mumsnet-labour-reform-school-gates-keir-starmer-b2894524.html

Also in full at https://archive.is/V5P6n

I feel exactly the same way about Boris Johnson - I completely fail to see why anybody falls for his bumbling posho act or thinks he was responsible enough to be PM, I wouldn't leave him in charge of jumble sale stall.

There's something about Nigel Farage that really sets my teeth on edge, he's the sort of man I usually avoid at all costs. But he's definitely got that ability to listen to and connect with individuals outside his social circle - Trump has it and so does Johnson. Usually, politicians have no clue how to talk/interact with normal people.

Whether that translates into Farage actually addressing any of the concerns he's spent time listening to is another matter and I'm not sure if I, personally, would give him the mandate to tackle it (although, how could he be much worse than the middle-manager politicians we've elected in the last 20+ years?🤔🤷‍♀️).

Only cos the other 4 are scared to put their heads up above the parapet!

Listening, and engaging with people outside your circle, is an underrated skill in retail politics. I mentioned Ro Khanna because, as Democratic Congressfolx go, he's very far left indeed, but he went on Megyn Kelly's show specifically to debate trans with her. Megyn's take on that was that obviously they didn't convince each other, but they both came away with more of an understanding of where the other is coming from, and they had a friendly conversation and she'd be happy to have him back.

I'm trying to imagine this in the UK context - say someone like Alex Sobel or Nadia Whittome going on Julia Hartley-Brewer - and I'm really struggling. Julia would be up for it but they wouldn't.

At least part of it is Parliament being dominated by people who've never worked outside politics or associated fields. The AEU used to have a rule that they wouldn't sponsor a Labour MP who wasn't a time-served engineer. I don't think that would be a viable approach now, because the unions are far more white-collar public-sector and I don't believe Labour needs to be corrected in that direction, but it would be good to have a sprinkling of MPs with real life experience.

Dear lord, I need a new dictionary

Populists pretend complex problems have simple solutions as if everyone else in the country has deliberately ignored them. Success never follows such idiocy.

Reform said their councils were going cut huge amounts of waste that woke people had forced on them and reduce taxation. Every reform controlled council is actually increasing council tax because those roles didn't exist and they didn't know what responsibilities they had to fulfill.

If you're thinking where have you seen the promises of the Nigel Farage outfit totally fail to meet simplistic promises before, you will be recalling his predictably disastrous brexit.

That would just make them lucky

At the time of the Brexit referendum, I was 100% remain supporting. I'm of the Left persuasion, and I live in Northern Ireland, so for us over here membership of the EU really helped with keeping the ceasefires intact because there was (in practice) no border across the island. Services, communications, policing, travel, electricity, farming & food were all integrated between the two legal jurisdictions. People could essentially live as though they were in a united Ireland if they wanted to. It made life a lot easier on a daily basis for the people who live in border areas - in the decades before, having to queue to cross at border checkpoints on multiple occasions was a huge disincentive and added a lot of complexity to daily life.

Nowadays, though, I'm much more ambivalent about how the EU project is going - I would say I'm more inclined towards Maurice Glasman (and the Blue Labour school of thought) that the EU is too different in nature to the societies in Ireland & UK, too different in political and judicial philosophies and much too bureaucratic and inflexible by half (essentially a French or Spanish town hall attitude on steroids). I don't like the very top down approach, especially on social issues e.g. women's sex-based rights. So I have more in common with the Brexiteers than I used to and don't see Brexit as inherently disastrous anymore - I think the Tory party were woeful negotiators of the final deal but, philosophically and politically, I can see why despite regional improvements that happened in UK and NI because of things like the ESF people felt that Brussels was too remote and undemocratic.

I don't think any county council in the UK gives a good sketch of how the various parties will govern - local councils are just too different from Westminster in rules, issues, funding and participants.

although, how could he be much worse than the middle-manager politicians we've elected in the last 20+ years?

Oh I think he is capable of being much much worse than the utter incompetents we’ve seen as PM. They were ‘merely’ incompetent. He is a power apparatchik and has been watching Trump’s presidency closely. His MO has always been divide and rule. Break what exists but no plan for a replacement.

To remain in power, and hide his inability to govern, he’d start attacking the media and attack the judiciary. The BBC would cease to exist as it is. No public criticism could be tolerated. To make a shit load of money, he’d privatise the NHS, make major cuts to welfare, and roll back all employment rights. His ukip policies were pretty clear. He’s a hard core libertarian. And as the UK’s economy worsened and inequality deepened, he’d blame immigrants, which would inflame racial tensions, because that is a wonderful diversion tactic.

Charming? Have a laugh with him at the pub? Possibly. That’s not my take, but we know that many sociopaths are extremely charming. He’d certainly be capable of letting you buy him drinks and regale you with funny anecdote’s, then go home and tell his wife how he despised you.

A Farage led government would be a disaster. On a personal level, I think my household would be okay, but I’d grieve for what would happen to the UK.

I think that really gets to the meat of it @DrBlackbird

I agree and yet I think most Reform voters think the Gurning Pint Clown will make their life better, or are going to make a point with their vote that they think Labour and Tories have let them down and it's time for 'fresh blood'.

Similar to how Brexit would lead to an improvement of various things that had nothing to do with the EU (and quelle surprise nothing got better and many things got worse). Due in large part to him and his cronies shooting down any reasonable settlement as BETRAYING THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE.

You'd hope for better but given how Brexit and the aftermath went... eh

We've already seen how it's going to go. Very badly. I'm sitting in what will probably become a massive Reform majority too.

The problem is the EU was blamed for lots of things before brexit. We had to accept uncontrolled immigration from EU, couldn't make separate trade deals, the EU parliament is bloated, undemocratic and slow.

So given the opportunity, of course people voted to give our politicians the chance to make meaningful changes.

Despite blaming the EU for policy, when it came to it, the politicians we have dont want the responsibility. They want the comfort of EU telling them what to do. Thats not the electorates fault, its the politicians.

So given that the public voted Brexit, is it surprising that after given both Tories and Labour a chance to use this freedom, they are voting for a party who is more likely to get on with govern without pining for the EU?

Yes. Makes complete sense to vote for the party behind the mistake and which will happily perpetuate the mistake rather than fixing it

If Labour and Conservative politicians want to ignore why the electorate voted as they did and what they want, they cant be surprised that they behind in the polls. Flapping around not knowing what to do and blaming everyone else is never a vote winner.

I'm not remotely convinced that Reform will do that, but I can see the argument.

I think they'll waste more time on the EU (rolling back / violating / renegotiating agreements already made), than Labour or the Tories would at this point.

I think there's still a significant part of their constituency that thinks we didn't get the brexit they voted for and remoaners have cocked it up (and that's why it's turned out shit and benefited nobody) and if only we give Farage a straight run at it, he can sort it all out lickety split flash bang wallop - Step 4 : profit.

I wonder where Farage will land on that : he must realise that the settlements we have are a damn sight better than kicking over the tables - but then he has to please THE WILL OF The People. Who, quite entirely by coincidence, have been led to believe there's a much better brexit out there. Somewhere.

Polling is now firmly against brexit by a much larger margin than voted for it because of two reasons: the benefits are exposed as lies, the age group most in favour are dying and younger people want back in.

I think most Reform voters think the Gurning Pint Clown will make their life better, or are going to make a point with their vote that they think Labour and Tories have let them down and it's time for 'fresh blood'.

Yes, agree. The global economy is struggling. The UK economy is struggling. First the subprime crisis, then Brexit here. Then covid. Plus, political systems considerably controlled by the financial elite. The average household is struggling and desperate for change. Reform will be another protest vote.

Unfortunately, like the other protest votes, to our detriment.

It is difficult. Greens and LDs would hit the economy. But Reform will go for democratic institutions. Who are the role models for Farage? He’s had meetings with jordon Bardella. He respects Trump. He has ties to Russia.

Just to remind us that it was one third of the electorate who actually voted on a non binding resolution based on successful lies and misinformation from the Leave camp. Remember all that money that would magically transfer to the NHS? Those scary hordes from Turkey that would invade our shores?

The EU also has many problems and bloated bureaucracy is one of them, true. But it enabled easy and highly successful trade between 28 countries without duty or restrictions. We’re paying the price for Brexit but it will be oh so much more to pay for a Reform government. Though I’m sure Reform could do brisk sales selling lovely black shirts to disaffected angry young men pretty easily.

You make some reasonable points, quite compelling, and then spoil them with the usual fascist/Nazi smear.
And by association, all those "disaffected angry young men" as willing Blackshirts and everyone else who votes for them.
Keep going.

I agree, it’s hard to take arguments seriously when they’re sandwiched between sneering and smearing.

I used to sneer at Brexit voters too, until I realised that they were making choices within the system that was offered to them and their options weren’t great or even designed to benefit them.

So many politicians talk about wanting to help the working class but what they really want is for the working class to shut up, do what they’re told and be a good little voting bloc. It’s hard to make beneficial choices in that kind of system.

Protest votes make much more sense when you understand that the system is failing everyday people, and they’re hoping that pulling a lever that wasn’t available to them previously will mean that this time things will change.

I know analogies to nazism is over done and often applied inappropriately. However, I’m absolutely serious.

There are far more informed commentators making the analogy between the current US administration and the 1930’s fascist playbook.

We’d like to think that Farage would never be as extreme as Trump. And of course many people voting for Reform would do so because they’re dissatisfied by Labour and Conservative and hoping for better rather than looking to have immigrants beaten up. So good god of course Reform voters in general do not have nefarious or malicious intentions nor aim to erode democracy in the UK. I’m fairly certain my friends have Reform voting intentions. Ordinarily they’d be voting Tory, but now it’ll be a protest vote after the Tories imploded.

However, I doubt it ever starts out with malign intentions on the part of the Party leaders.

And are you saying that these disaffected angry young (and old) men could not be persuaded to support Reform? If Farage created an Immigration and Customs enforcement agency in the UK, you don’t think anyone would apply?

There are genuine issues to do with immigration, its scope, its scale and the clash of cultures with rapid rises in immigration. People have every right to express their concerns. I share them. However, history is still capable of repeating itself. There are men and women in the UK who are willing to express their anti immigration views violently. We’ve seen them.

Farage’s entire rise to political power is his ability to play off and magnify people’s - genuine - immigration concerns. I don’t see it as a huge stretch to envision him creating a militia / immigration enforcement agency of sorts should he be in charge. In the US, their uniform is black and they cover their faces and are heavily armed and seemingly able to murder US citizens without repercussions.

It is certainly not controversial to acknowledge the former. Possibly the latter is? I’d hope not, but I’m prepared to consider the future possibility.

Edited to add: I am not sneering nor smearing. I’m acknowledging why people voted for Brexit and why they’d vote Reform. But I am still fearful of a Farage led government and the direction he could take this country.

There's a particular issue with Labour because they used to be, at least in theory, a party run by the working class for the benefit of the working class. That's been eroding over many decades, and by this point they're basically the new Whig Party, full of patrician moralists who want to improve the working class.

A huge part of this is the whole Blairite constitutional settlement that's starting to look exhausted by now. We can put together key changes post 1997: legal reforms like the HRA and expansion of judicial review; devolution; turning the House of Lords into a House of Appointees; massively expanding the quango state, etc.

Many of those reforms, maybe all of them, could be defended on their own merits, but one effect of the whole package was to expand the size of, and change the composition of, the governing class. Keir Starmer is a really obvious product of this legalistic administrative state, he's done very well out of it, and now he's running it. It's no wonder he seems to find democracy an annoying nuisance.

And this all might be forgivable if it meant good government, but it doesn't. The quality seems to keep going down.

I know there's a strong tendency on FWR to use "populism" as a boo-word and say that protest votes are a bad thing, but it might be more productive to ask if voters' lack of trust in government is not due to manipulation by Russia/Israel/hedge fund bros, but just because our political class is not very capable.

It's not even as if Reform voters are very radical. They're basically normie Brits who are browned off with the state of the country. Your average Reform activist, in my observation, would be happy with a government that did the things Boris Johnson promised in 2019 but either didn't get around to (levelling up) or did the opposite (immigration).

There's even, you may not believe this but polling shows it, a chunk of floating voters wobbling between Reform and Greens. They're people who aren't political obsessives and don't think much about the ideological differences between those parties, vibes based voters if you like, they just know that they're outsiders and not Labour or Tory.

Of course anything is possible
It's possible a Scargill win in the miners strike/associated general strike would have taken us into the Soviet sphere. He certainly alluded to it.
Where would a Benn or Militant Tendency rule have taken us?
But you're making a strong inference Farage is an anti democrat, whatever shade of Nazi fascist far-right you'd like to pick (just watch out for his lawyers if you do state the big F or N directly to him), and that his young male voters are Blackshirts just waiting for their chest sizes to be taken. The left are so free and easy with their fascist accusations, they just pepper every discussion of Reform with them. And to be frank, it's rather tedious, and means that as each day goes by, the left choose to open up a bigger divide to the right, choose to place barriers in the way of rational discourse.
And then shout and scream when the right win.
Harris did it for months, and it got her nowhere.
The same mistake being made here re Reform.

Liz Truss (about 15 minutes in) discusses the various 'independent' bodies set up by Blair and Brown that she argues hem in politicians and prevent them from taking action, even when they have an electoral mandate. She's obviously very bitter, for obvious reasons, but she does provide some insight on how things work from having been in various government departments.

Edited: grammar

We had an unexpected local election last year, and for the first time, the candidates all knocked on doors.

They were all lovely. Talked about the same things - water quality, protecting the green spaces, spending. Believe it or not, the green candidate didnt wave a palestine flag and tell me his pronouns, the reform candidate didnt try to get me to punch a foreigner.

Most people want the same things, just argue how to get there. So i can believe that voters are floating between 'far right' and 'far left'.

Conservatives messed it up by saying one thing then doing another. Labour by knowing what they were going to inherit and then saying thats why they cant do anything.

Liz Truss was in parliament long enough to be aware of these independent bodies. That should have been part of her plan.

Thats the problem with the greens, they dont know what they are realistically going to be dealing with. Unless, similar to reform, they have lots of defectors but from Labour.

Then we have a renamed conservative and labour party and are back to square one.

When Truss complains that she was sabotaged by the deep state and betrayed by her MPs, she's not wrong, it's just that she isn't self-aware enough to realise that she gave her enemies more than enough ammunition.

Realistically an insurgent party needs to have some defectors if only because they know how the system works. One of Labour's problems was coming into power with ministers, hardly any of whom had been in government before. It's no coincidence that, purely in terms of getting things done, Ed Miliband is probably the most effective minister in the government. Whether what he's doing is good or bad, that's another question.