Certainly since transmen have become more familiar. The first few times I encountered transmen, even though I'd known transwomen for years, it took a few seconds for my brain to process what I was seeing, and my thought process probably went something like "gay man, but unusually small and effete gay man, odd voice pitch, narrow shoulders, broad hips, female mannerisms... oh I see, it's a woman".
But I think that element of surprise is much less common now.
I think of drag acting in movies, and even the most talented actors really struggle to carry off a cross-sex role. They still depend on willing suspension of disbelief. Dustin Hoffman is a joy to watch in Tootsie, and he puts all his talent into his female persona, and has the advantage of being a short and slightly built man, but it's still a leap of faith to see him as a woman. I love Theatre of Blood, but however wonderful an actress Diana Rigg is, I struggle to see her as a man.
I feel genuinely sorry for Elliot Page. She can look kind of masculine, or at least androgynous, in a filtered photo. But see her in live action, interacting with others... she's tiny even for a woman, and anyone who, wanting to be kind, says she looks convincingly male, is just gaslighting her.