I don't think it's linear WhiteVelvet.
The landscape is incredibly different from how it was in say 2015 - changes in prison policy and sport have seen to that, and i even wonder if there is hope that the next census might be less screwed up.
It is noticeable that the extremists are currently trying to pretend that prison policy has always been like it is now. Ha!
Some are still trying to fight the sport battle but I do think it is mainly won - the craven IOC finally shifting from sheer pressure has made the difference. Again the argument now is trying to redraw the lines of what counts as sport (eg parkrun) to limit the spread of the idea that sex actually matters. In that context I can even agree with activists of the other viewpoint that it's pathetic and that really all they are trying to do is avoid wins by males in women's sport being too visible. They're still saying 'elite' rather than 'MALE'.
The complete uselessness of this toxic government who have latched on to this issue as one of the only open goals the next government has given them, means that it is harder to have a discussion about this that is nor a proxy general political discussion. That's made things quite tricky for me. Tbh I'm one of the ones who thinks that Labour's policy shift will be enough. But there's going to be an awful lot more battles to come. The opposition wants to force us to do it case by obviously abusive case while they hold the linguistic and policy ground. Like this.