How much do you think trans issues will impact the election outcome?

[NotMyBagButCrackOn]

I have seen it posted a lot here that people are voting on the trans issue and feel that the Conservative party are the party that most aligns with their views on this.

However, I don't get the feeling that is a vote decider for most people no matter where they stand on the issue. Do you think it will have an impact on the way most people vote?

What I think is that Labour will win but their majority might be slightly smaller than it otherwise would have been due to this. What do you think?

None.
People will either want the Tories out and Labour in, or the Tories to stay in power.

If Labour get it we'll continue the fight. Public opinion is definitely on our (GC) side.

I think Labour will lose a significant chunk of votes they should have had due to their "what is a woman" hypocrisy. Whether that's enough to prevent them getting in, I think it could go either way. I certainly won't vote for them because of it (or the Conservatives).@

Zero. Outside of mumsnet I don’t think most people have considered it all - other than the occasional ‘that seems stupid’ for obvious cases like sex offenders in female prisons.

I don't think it will. People's economic concerns will have much greater influence over their vote.

I dont think its an issue a lot of people will be voting on.

A lot of seats are "safe seats" anyway so I dont think you'll get significant enough swings based on this issue alone to impact the election.

The areas that are maginal are more likely to change will be more likely voting on the economy, immigration

I dont think labour have the next election in the bag .

It is not so much that it will impact the outcome of an election, so much as it will become an ever greater isue and the heat will be very intense.

Even if Labour do get in the heat will continue, and people on the opposition benches such as Kemi Badenoch and Miriam Cates will be fierce in holding Labour to account.

It might be an issue which effects the election after the next one, though.......along with other social and cultural issues. People who had always voted Labour turned tio the tories when we had the Brexit debate. Cultural issues are increasingly important and they will be goiung forward.

I don't think Labour have it in the bag, either.....and they know that issues such as women's rights/self Id are hot topics, which they are scrabbling around trying to cover up their real intentions on the issue.

which is why they are scrabbling around

I don't believe the issue itself will have a lot of resonance. I do believe however that as a result of their craven stupidity, Labour is now in danger of gaining a reputation for being untrustworthy and slippery with facts and with the truth, and that this could be damaging if they don't sort it out quickly. And, if you don't want to take my word for it, ask Starmer.

In the same way people were surprised that there is a PC gone mad vote that swung Brexit and the last election, there could be another surprise coming.

That cohort is getting bigger as the madness gets actually madder and not just a fake culture war.

This banking farrago(!) has multiplied the risk/numbers substantially IMO.

It's one issue, and it's not one of the core issues that do tend to strongly influence voters. Like the economy, policing, education, taxation etc.

But it does show certain politicians up to be prepared to say whatever they think is the current most popular opinion, and look rather foolish when the inconsistencies are pointed out. It makes them look untrustworthy and incoherent.

In my constituency, very few people ever vote Labour, it's a Lib Dem/conservative split and has had a Conservative MP with a large majority at least since the modern Conservative Party has been around.

I think Labour has lost all credibility. First Kier says that some women have penises. Now he is saying that women are adult females. Did he miss off saying "except for the ones with penises" or has he actually changed his mind? Or is he just swinging his principles whichever way the polls tell him too?

Sadly a lot of people don't think women and girls' rights and safety are important enough to change the way they vote.

I don't think it will make any difference. Like climate change, the real impact of what they are doing to us (the re-definition of man an woman into sexist gender roles, the re-marginilisation of female perspectives and rights in politics and the re-vulnerisation of female people in society) won't appear until it's far too late to change it, and by that time the problem for female people (which is not simply who is in whose toilets, but who has the right to describe their own opporession and lobby for their own needs) will be so big and so everywhere many people probably won't even connect it to the unsexing of womanhood.

That's why I think the approach has to be sunlight on the impact for women to change the minds of politicians who think they are doing the right thing. If the voters don't care enough either way to move the needle they won't vote a party in to stop it happening they also won't vote a party out for not doing it, so it comes down to making sure the MPs who will actually vote on any change truly understand the stakes for female people here.

I think it may be one of those issues that unexpectedly makes a difference. Sometimes, in some constituencies, the gap between candidates can be very small.

It could come down to who middle aged women can stomach.

I think it will depend on how much the Conservatives make a thing about it. Keir has made himself weak by saying things about these issues that the general public don’t believe. Then he’s a weathercock and backtracks when he realises it is an issue. If I were the conservatives I would really hammer him for it as it makes him look flat-earther daft. It’s an easy win. However… you have Penny Mordant of the Conservatives who did a fantastic job of holding a sword but is not so good on biological reality either.

shop.conservatives.com/keir-starmer-flipflops.html
These are funny

I think it won't be the vote decider we probably wish it was.

It should never have been dragged into the party political arena and I'm so angry it has been.
By setting themselves up as the party for GC women, the Conservatives have not only misled people (their membership has many TRAs, some of whom are in the Government), it has ensured that TRAs will claim they are speaking for the electorate if (when!) the Conservatives lose their seats.

The people likely to benefit are the LibDems. They're keeping very quiet and letting the Conservatives and Labour tear each other apart. I've even seen someone online claiming they couldn't possibly vote Labour because "women's rights", so they're voting LibDem instead!

All the political parties need to be challenged on this, not just Labour. Yet just look at this board!

I'd prefer to see KJK challenging Lloyd Russell-Moyle, or Layla Moran, or Caroline Nokes, or even Penny Mordaunt.

I can agree with this.

In recent days (hours?!) however, other issues seem likely to form the divide:

• ULEZ
• banking and your "values"

Winning the ULEZ in court may well end up a nightmare for Starmer and help cause a Labour split.

Reeves totally fucked it with her response on NatWest. And now Farage and Miller are on the same page about banks needing to just to banking (IKR?!!).

On ULEZ and banks, public opinion seems more weighted towards the Tories. And then you will also have Starmer's unretracted Penis News hostage video resurfacing (I can't believe it won't). There might be wave after wave of SAR stories from banks, as well.

Plus we don't know what will come of Cass and RSE - as smaller but important issues for parents. Smaller in media terms but very important to those who are tracking it as they are directly affected.

The election will be won on a couple of issues. First the economy, and then health, and rather depressingly migration.
gender issues are not something the average punter gets wound up about.

I had the lib dems on the doorstep and asked whether they know what a woman is. The guy went a bit pale and said I was not the first person to ask that question so I guess it IS coming up as an issue.

I agree probably not going to swing it for most people but I personally cannot vote for someone who pretends they don't know or that it's "complicated".

at this stage who knows tbh! Who’d have thought Ed Milliband eating a bacon sandwich weirdly would have such an impact 🤷🏻‍♀️

i think it’s going to be about the perception I.e. if Labour tie themselves in knots trying to fudge the issue, it won’t be about the issue but about the fact they’ve made themselves look foolish & dishonest.

That’s why they’re on the “of course we know a woman is an adult human female” mantra. they know if they don’t say it they’ll get asked it by every single journalist. Their problem is going to be KJK standing against Starmer. The media will love it & they’ll be forced to properly define things which they’ll hate.

It won't determine the outcome of the election. Labour has come up with enough weasel words to shut down much journalistic interrogation when there is so much else to talk about.
But hopefully when KJK stands against Starmer in his constituency it will keep him on his toes.
Stonewall have probably cut a deal with Labour in terms of getting them to agree those "snack machine" GRC reforms - from something to virtually nothing.
But it won't go away and we won't shut up.

I just can't vote for anyone that thinks some women have penises. Neither will DH or 2 DS's. None of us like Sunak but at least he knows a woman does not have a penis. Starlmer and Davies don't know this it seems.

I think it will do just enough damage to Labour that they'll need to go into coalition with another party, one which has trans rights as their negotiating red line with Labour. Similar to the SNP in Scotland being over a barrel and having to go OTT on trans to placate the Green Party.

I ain't voting Labour. They haven't done enough