How much do you think trans issues will impact the election outcome?

[NotMyBagButCrackOn]

I have seen it posted a lot here that people are voting on the trans issue and feel that the Conservative party are the party that most aligns with their views on this.

However, I don't get the feeling that is a vote decider for most people no matter where they stand on the issue. Do you think it will have an impact on the way most people vote?

What I think is that Labour will win but their majority might be slightly smaller than it otherwise would have been due to this. What do you think?

<Shrug.>

Women may not 'matter' to many people - I suppose they're happy making token gesture mutters about equality and inclusion and being lovely people voting labour without really engaging the brain much there. Such as the Lia Thomas team mates: strip off in front of this man, no crying, brainwashing therapy is available, he can expect you to validate him with your body. All very left wing and progressive, that.....

But a party that believes in alternative reality, vanishing inconvenient fact and buying into a fantasy narrative while punishing those who dissent? And who apparently have different views on a weekly basis? And talk absolute bollocks when challenged on their policies?

Yes, that people are noticing.

I'm only one voter, but they've lost me. I have no idea who I will vote for but it won't be anyone who lacks the guts or integrity to be able to cope with reality over some quasi religious nutjobbery. How can they be trusted with running a country?

I don’t think it’ll make an ounce of difference.

It probably won’t make much of a dent, but it will affect my vote.

Women may not 'matter' to many people

I wouldn't say that people who vote Labour think that women don't matter.
It's like saying that refugees or people struggling to their mortgage don't matter to anyone who votes Conservative because of the Rwanda policy and the increasing interest rates.

Labour is now in danger of gaining a reputation for being untrustworthy and slippery with facts and with the truth,

I don't trust the Labour or the Conservatives. I feel at the moment that Labour will probably do the least harm overall but I am far from certain about this. I wish there was a viable alternative.

I live in a safe Labour area anyway so I don't think my vote will have any impact on the outcome.

I'm GC, I think it's really important - but I'm afraid that getting the tories out is more important to me.
I care about the environment, the economy, getting rid of their corruption and privatisation agenda, investing in education.
Also - I think the tories are just playing it politically, they don't actually give a fuck about women or women's rights, they ran the initial GRA 'consultation'. They're all a load of fuckwits really, but I believe Labour will be better for the country.
Doesn't mean I accept twaw or will give up quietly fighting the assault on women though.

It will 100% influence my vote. I cannot live with the idea of voting for a party who will make life worse for women.

I can't speak for any other voter though.

I don't think it will swing the election. But I think the momentum around the debate is such that Labour will be forced to rein in some of the most extreme "progressive" policies they had mapped out and that the increased public scrutiny means that the opposition government will feel on solid ground in holding them to account on the matter.

I know everyone invested in the discussion is very invested but I also think at least 90% of the population is not invested in the slightest and will not change who they would normally vote for on account of it.

Most people if asked (according to polls) will kind of be 'Live and let live' about it, some may be 'Hmm, I think maybe some of this stuff has gone a bit far', but also not change their usual vote about it. I very much doubt there are enough people who feel strongly enough in many constituencies to actually change the outcome - though I'd be fascinated if someone impartial were to poll people's feelings on whether this would affect their vote.

Even if Labour do get in the heat will continue, and people on the opposition benches such as Kemi Badenoch and Miriam Cates will be fierce in holding Labour to account.

We’ll need the likes of KB and MC in opposition if Labour get in. Does anyone know if they are in relatively safe seats?

Personally I don’t think the gender issue will prevent Labour winning the next election. But I think it could hasten their departure if they don’t keep the genderists in check. It’ll be interesting to see how well the SNP do at the next election. They made themselves look utterly incompetent over gender reform.

I don't think it will be the deciding issue for many people on how they vote, but it will have some impact because of the potential to make so many politicians look like fools. I think Labour will be forced to further qualify and moderate its position. I live in a solid Labour area and have voted Labour all my life, but won't be this election. It will take a lot for me to trust them, they have so many crazies who can do a lot of damage to women's rights.

A negligible impact.

It may not seem so on this bit of MN, but in the context of a country of 67 million people the number who feel so strongly about trans issues that they will be the deciding issue on how they will vote at the next election is tiny. Certainly in comparison with the cost of living, the state of the NHS, housing etc etc.

Of course it will be the main issue for some people - maybe many thousands of them. But whether there will be enough of them to actually move the dial in marginal / contested seats is the big question. It’s reasonable to assume that a large proportion of such voters live in very safe Labour seats in London and University cities.

It is becoming a big issue in Europe and many countries are turning to the Right so KS would be foolish to ignore it.
If the tories can sort out the economy and migration I wouldn't rule out a shock result.
There is plenty of time.

Depends on which side of the fence flip flop Starmer teeters.
He hasn’t got enough time to come to a decision before the next election.

I agree with you about the Tories but I do think at least they haven’t ‘caved’ like so many other governments around the world. I can’t even think to vote Labour when I know they want to erase women’s rights. They’re going to have limited power to make any changes anyway with the state of the global economy and the climate. If they happily take away safety and dignity for girls and women that will be another major disaster.

All the polls show that the issue ranks very low on people's list of priorities.

Labour and the LibDems have just overturned massive Tory majorities in two bye elections where the issue never arose at all

Labour' s position is woolly but that broadly reflects popular opinion which on this subject is inconsistent.

The idea that it's going to be a massive vote loser has no evidence behind it and I have no idea why people are trying to convince themselves that it's true.

That's why need for it become common knowledge that the Lib Dems are as bad, if not worse, on this issue.

With the current state of the economy I can't see that getting the Tories out would make much difference to people's wealth levels.
Keir Starmer seems hideously totalitarian.

I don't think the Labour Party is much bothered about ordinary people. I'm a lifelong Labour voter but not any more. Far too risky. Especially since Rachel Reeves seems to think it's fine closing bank accounts because of people's political views. Shocking.
Then there is their treatment of Women in the Labour party itself. If Wes Streeting really did try to expel women from the party for being biological realists, and I have no reason to disbelieve the one's who have said so on here, I simply can't vote Labour any more.
The more people who are affected personally by GI, the more it will matter. Was Uxbridge really all about Ulez? If so it seems quite a coincidence that Labour have suddenly made these comments about Self ID etc.

Then we have a year to raise public awareness and make a lot of noise.

We’ve got two years to make it a big issue

Not hugley - but the temperature will have been raised and there will be no escape for Labour when it comes to this isue. They will be interrogated every step of the way.

I think it will have a marginal influence overall. There are too many other big issues. Speaking personally, however, while I’d never vote Tory, unfortunately Labour’s mealy mouthed nonsense and often downright hostility on the issue means I’m not going to vote for them either despite them belatedly catching up with the problems with a twaw policy. Maybe if they were a bit more inspiring on how to fix the multiple shitshows were experiencing I’d give them a chance, it honestly they seem just desperate to not lose any votes by saying anything interesting.

I’ve always voted Lib Dem but they’re a definite no due to this issue.

So I can’t see me voting for any of them - or green, of course.

So it is a decisive issue for me but overall I can’t see it cutting though the other issues in a big way.

I live in a safe Tory seat, where Labour don't even canvass or leaflet. The Lib Dem candidate is a nice guy who has done more for locals as a councillor than the never present Tory MP ever has .... but how can I vote for him?

I think Labour might be in for a surprise, I (hope and) don't think they will win.
They ejected lots of women from the party. They have lost life-long voters over this. Also I wonder what it's like in their 'red wall' - muslim and christian parents in Canada are beginning to stand up and protest, will UK parents too?

"All a load of fuckwits" is a very grave generalisation. Kemi and Miriam and others have been brilliant on the issue, and they understad it it too.

I'm not sure what difference you think that Labour will make to the issues you have mentioned? I get that those are the issues that motivate people, but also think a lot of people are going to be very disappointed if they are expecting major change. They've already said they need at least two terms in office.