How much do you think trans issues will impact the election outcome?

[NotMyBagButCrackOn]

I have seen it posted a lot here that people are voting on the trans issue and feel that the Conservative party are the party that most aligns with their views on this.

However, I don't get the feeling that is a vote decider for most people no matter where they stand on the issue. Do you think it will have an impact on the way most people vote?

What I think is that Labour will win but their majority might be slightly smaller than it otherwise would have been due to this. What do you think?

Labour will do whatever seems popular at the time. In a few years being overtly pro-trans might have ceased to be such a big deal for right-on types.

The current Conservative party on the other hand seems quite happy to set about ruining the country in almost every way.

The NHS being on its knees, mortgage rates and the cost of living are more likely to be the main things that decide the election

This x 100

None whatsoever...people tend to get themselves in an echo chamber were they listen to similar people with similar views that feels like the whole world has the same view. I think people who obsess about climate change are the same...in reality people just live their lives just worrying about making end meet etc.

Enough that Labour have moved position on it recently.

Don’t forget the Muslim vote. The Muslim community has been very upset about the PSHE taught to their children in schools and recently very, very quickly fulfilled the requirement for 100,000 signatures on their petition to Parliament about it. If they perceive Labour’s policy as entrenching this, perhaps that would influence them.

Then add all the other parents upset by this even if they aren’t talking about it out loud.

This. If it was such a minor “god no one cares you silly women” issue, Labour wouldn’t be changing position

Very little impact. Most people are impactedday by day by more significant issues.

And if there is going to be no funding for refuges, the definition of who is allowed in them is hardly going to figure on the radar.

Badenoch has a safe seat but Cates got elected on a 9% swing in a red wall seat (Angela Smith’s old seat) and is likely gone at the next election.

Hard to disagree with this. If it wasn't seen as important, or worthy of attention, they would have carried on.

The NHS being on its knees, mortgage rates and the cost of living are more likely to be the main things that decide the election

If people aren’t convinced that Labour can do anything very much about these things - and TBF it’s a big ask, given the current circumstances - “marginal” issues such as this may well play a bigger part in people’s decision making.

That being said, I think that after the last few days, it’s become more of a deciding factor, largely because of Labour’s own actions, which I think are taking place in order to settle the problem for them well in advance of the general election.

It will be interesting to see what her constituency thinks come the next election. She's been very prominent and vocal in these discussions. If it wasn't for that she could have been a backbencher most wouldn't have heard of.

Maybe they like her for being someone taking a stand and not backing down or maybe they dislike her focus being heavily on this one issue?

I genuinely have no idea.

In Spain the issue had more impact on the results. Feminists did not vote for Vox far right, and there were many more spoiled votes than normal. Slightly different as there is proportional representation so no clear winners . Negociación and pacts have to happen, but this time it may not be possible. Feminism does have( or used to have) a louder voice, but when the left expels gender critical women and provides a man in a dress to be s spokeswoman on Feminism , womens committment to the left has wavered a lot.

Fantastic post. Women on MN can see the slow motion car crash happening, but the majority of women not overly invested in this subject are some miles from the carnage, and all they have is their Sat Nav saying "trouble ahead". And not changing their plans.

I'm not convinced it will have a big impact, not in the same way 'get Brexit done' did in 2019.

It's hard to say though until a GE is called and proper electioneering gets underway.

A lot will depend on how the media decide to play it. Similar to Beth Rigby's Sky interview if prominent news outlets and journalists want this to be the defining issue they have the power to make it so. Like wise if they don't it won't be. That aspect is out of the control of either party.

As a more general comment both Sunak and Starmer come across a bit uninspiring and lacking a sense of true conviction (about anything) so I can well imagine everyone being fed up of both of them by the time voting day arrives.

Hmm...did Gordon Brown's "who put me with that bigoted woman?" gaffe help decide the 2010 GE?

Oh look Keir suddenly doing a u turn to try and win votes as its dawned on him ... 🙄

It may have done. In 2010 Brown was the incumbent party on the skids when everyone wanted a change though. So similar position to Sunak now. Starmer has the Cameron advantage of being 'the face of change' even if that change isn't that appealing. He just has to be more appealing than the other guy.

I get the impression that Labour has suddenly(?) woken up to how incoherent their position has been. And also how we've noticed the unpleasantness of their MPs and activists bullying people like Rosie Duffield. I also think a lot of heavy lifting has been done within the party by groups like Labour Women's Declaration. They've come out saying no Self ID and we-will-respect-sex-based-rights so my guess is that they will send it all off to the EHCR to make sense of the current pigs ear of the guidance that seems to have captured public bodies like our schools and the NHS. I don't know that they will rush to legislate to clarify the 2010 Equality Act or, even worse the Gender Recognition Act which allows people to chance historical data, like their birth certificate. I do think however that a lot of the problems have been generated by activists ( Stonewall, Mermaids, EDI practitioners) successfully pushing for practice that is effectively self-ID and well beyond the law, but which they describe as " good practice", and woe betide you if you disagree. So a change in guidance could go a long way. A LOT of people have been thinking that they have to go along with the transactivist positions as otherwise they risk breaking the law. And some of the captured corporates, who are always looking for eye catching performative diversity stuff, may think better of it after the Farage debacle.

We also need to see a change among the Lib Dems, where trans activism seems to be still pretty much in the ascendancy, And I believe there's an actual legal case against the Greens being brought by their deputy director(?) who was hounded out of the party for saying that a woman is an adult human female.

So I feel there's a long way to go, but I also feel that once the public discourse changes , a LOT of people will come out saying what they think. I am also encouraged by recent developments, including the recent IPSOS ruling on the claim brought by Susan Green of Mermaids against the Times.

Totally disagree. Everyone I know in real life is planning to vote Conservative because of one or more of the following:

1. Labour’s slavish following of transextremism / contempt for women who raise concerns eg LGB Alliance and Rosie Duffield. The wishy-washy weak retraction wasn’t explained properly and looks like a trick;
2. Taxing private education. Like it or not a huge number of voters are concerned about this, and not just those who use private schools but also those who work in them. Our local independent is the biggest employer in our town;
3. Rishi Sunak. He’s turned the party around, has integrity and comes across as more competent than Starmer.

I really want to like Starmer but he’s spent too long trying to play politics instead of telling me what he stands for. If Boris Johnson taught the country one thing it’s that politics is a personality contest. And there Starmer is badly losing to Sunak which is a shame.

Starmer, vote for me.
I'm just a bit more competent than the other guy, just a bit less corrupt, just a bit more principled, just a tad more sensible.

And tbh, despite my GC and Tory roots, it was not a year ago that Sunak point blank refused to answer "So Mr. Chancellor, can you define what is a woman?"

My disquiet with TRA era Labour is as nothing to my disgust with a CONSERVEative Party that won't conserve.

13-14 years. Achieved nothing on the trans front in our civic institutions. Now Labour is making the mood music change equivalent to the Tories when the May/Miller/Mordaunt TRA axis was defeated by Badenoch and co. back in 2018/19.

Exactly

Posters have been saying no one cares for ages now, no help there, just trying to silence women.

But they have decided to look like there’s a shift, still suspect as anything, but if it was a non issue they’d still not bother.

My biggest concern is that this is how we end up with coalitions which I think are worse than one party with a majority. I'd rather have Labour outright than Labour in a coalition with other minority parties.

A lot of what happened with the SNP was due to the outsize influence of Harvie and the Greens because they needed him to form a government.

That's a very good point. Millions of "anyone but the Tories" voters will tactically vote, depending on who's the best bet in their area.

A real chance of a resurgent LDs, a few Greens, and Labour with the biggest number of seats but no overall majority. The Tories a rump.

The LDs and Greens will extract their pound of flesh, demands for PR voting (likely not even to go to a referendum) and Self ID or something close to it.

The majority of Labour want both of these things, Starmer could only resist by quitting, and that won't happen.

It seems evident that the private polling / focus groups must have indicated to labour that this is an issue that people are concerned about.
We always knew that the trans overreach in targeting children would eventually do for them. Especially given the sheer number of fetishists, sex offenders and entitled males who so openly share socially unacceptable views about VAWG, porn and children while claiming allegiance to the trans cause.
The safeguarding implications of all this are now in the open and reactions like Andrew Neil's will only increase in number until politicians all start prioritising child safeguarding and women's rights to privacy, safety & dignity:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1685029046915063808