Dennis Noel Kavanagh AT jebadoo2
1/ Tomorrow is the day of reckoning in LGB Alliance v Mermaids with judgment being handed down at 10 AM. My view is that if the law is applied to the facts Mermaids should comprehensively lose on all points, but litigation is always a risk so I want to look the contrary position
2/ First things first, if you need an excellent summary of the legal background to the case, Barbara Rich (an expert in this field) has it covered here with an explainer on the two key issues of (i) standing and (ii) public benefit points.
See AT BarbaraRich_law for more
3/ For a deep dive into the law and relevant facts, I wrote a letter to the Good Laugh Project in 2021 objecting to this spiteful action, (one described on record by a trans identifying male campaigner as an effort to "run them ragged").
https://grahamlinehan.substack.com/p/dennis-kavanaghs-letter-to-the-good
4/ So, to the question, "what if the alliance lose?"
Well. Of course that will feel disastrous. Of course we will lament that heterosexuals Joylon Maugham and Susie Green aided and abetted by Vichy gays like Jon Nicholson MP have effectively fettered homosexual free speech.
5/ We will rightly feel some shock, the law will in effect hold that homosexuals may have one state approved opinion on issues such as the brutal and experimental gay conversion surgery happening contemporaneously. But. And there is a but. The seed of defeat are oft in victory.
6/ If this comes to pass the first thing to say is we'll need a bit of spirit and what I'm told is called "blue steel". The alliance deserve and require our clear public support and expressions of outrage and solidarity. So let's make that our first order of business.
7/ Next. The ruling will be a first instance ruling. Maya Forstater lost at first instance, won on appeal. Allison Bailey is taking on Stonewall on appeal. "This ain't over" ought to be our attitude and a ruling such as this would be novel and in my view wide open to challenge.
8/ Why do I say that? Well, charities do not routinely tear chunks out of each other in court for perfectly good reasons. It's not a good use of charitable funds. It's not a good use of court time. We support pluralism in a democracy (unless you're that eccentric fox killer)
9/ Make no mistake, such a ruling would be revolutionary, it would significantly modify case law in this area and the First Tier Tribunal would be flooded by similar cases. If you can do this to the alliance, what's to stop us doing this to Mermaids?
10/ Note to please, the EHRC will be watching this closely. They intervened in Forstater on appeal to support Maya, I predict the same would happen here. This is but a battle within a wider and much longer war. We lose tomorrow, we can win a few more tomorrows away.
11/ Now, in any sane world, the tribunal will dispatch Mermaids on standing, find that the "public benefit" arguments are bit bloody rich coming from an outfit currently under a safeguarding investigation with a paedophile advocate trustee. But these are strange times.
12/ So long as the gendocrats whine "no debate", close bank accounts, call lesbians "sexual racists" and call the brutal mutilation of gay, autistic and looked after children "gender affirming care" we have to be alive to and strategise for setbacks.
13/ So let's travel hopefully, let's hope for the best but be ready for the worst. We cannot allow this or any other outrage by this evil movement to break us or shatter our spirit.
Do not give them your hope. Your equilibrium or your stalwartness.
We lose, we win on appeal