It would have been worse. I fear they'd not have issued an S35 in the Scottish self-ID case. And even that now seems to be being driven to the brink by the Greens. The Greens! They're meant to understand science! 😖
My own theory is it made its way into the Tories via some genuine believers, in addition to some who felt guilty at having opposed same-sex marriage. Or that their previous opposition was now career-limiting. And this looked like a handy way out of their past.
I suspect many of them saw this as a fringe issue when it was being raised (and it was) 5+ years ago with them. Then it started dawning, especially with Maya's case and the attention brought to it by JKR. Plus The Times and their pieces on the Tavistock situation.
Since then, the tanker has slowly started to turn round in the Tory party. And the others have done what they've done. (Such as stand with the "inclusive" conversion therapy ban signs, and advocate for male rapists to go where they choose).
I agree the revolving door of Education Secretaries has been a factor. It's also likely helped the more devoted civil servants kick the can down the road. I'd assume many of those trying to bring reason and common sense to the DfE have since given up and departed.
The GEO is meant to be part of the policy development here though. Kemi needs to bring fairness and common sense to it. She's probably the best hope we have of that happening, Minister-wise.