Or unless like Emily Bridges a series of accidents puts paid to their pole position as a distinct possibility for a medal in Paris so they fast forward the transition they had previously been happy to delay until after Paris to grab the possibility of a medal as a transwoman.
With Thomas everyone is starting to see the relative lack of effort needed to win the races. WIth Bridges we see an interesting story being played out in the media. In 2020 there was this article www.skysports.com/more-sports/cycling/news/15264/12101251/emily-bridges-coming-out-as-trans-in-cycling-is-a-crucial-step-on-my-journey with this quote
"To help achieve this, I'm going to be part of research into the effect that a medical transition has on athletic performance. This will, as far as I'm aware, be the first time that an elite-level international athlete has done this. I understand this will be extremely useful research. I really want to demonstrate what effect hormone replacement therapy has on the body, and how it massively changes athletic performance in multiple ways.I know that people will have questions about fairness. I feel I have an opportunity to show that the existing eligibility rules for trans athletes in competition are appropriate."
(my bold)
Just last week there was this article informing the cycling world that Bridges will be in the women's races soon, but it's fair because look - there's a graph (n=1) showing a dramatic drop in performance! www.cyclingweekly.com/fitness/i-just-want-to-be-competitive-again-trans-cyclist-emily-bridges-on-preparing-to-race-in-the-female-category with these quotes:
"the sharp shock of taking part in the elite men’s crit at the Loughborough Cycling Festival at the end of May last year. “I was shelled after two laps and lapped four times,” she shakes her head, reliving the unfamiliar feeling of being resigned to defeat. Bridges finished 43rd out of 45."
"She may have gone from frontrunner to tail-ender in the course of just a few months,"
"Bridges has been participating in a study at Loughborough University to monitor these changes, as well as tracking her own data (see chart) – indicating a 13-16% drop in her power outputs across six-second, one-, five- and 20-minute durations. In light of these changes, is she content that the current rules are appropriate? “I think so, yes. The reduced testosterone has a direct effect on the main determinants of VO2max – red blood cells, haemoglobin, haematocrit – which drop to female levels within five months."
So power output has dropped by 13-16% - interestingly right in the 9-24% range of advantage of males over females in cycling events cited by Hilton and Lundberg pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33289906/.
How does that square with qualifying 4th out of 20 for the men's individual pursuit, and 4th overall (just out of the medal positions)?
How does that square with winning bronze in the men's team pursuit?
How does that square with winning gold in the men's points race?
All at this event www.bucs.org.uk/events-page/cycling-track-championships-2021-22.html?tab=Results+and+Programme